I also lost your link to the section on Ukraine. I’ll write it here.
Regarding our conversation at the beginning of spring about what’s happening.
My vision of the situation on the front is coming true so far. We were waiting for the green stuff to appear. It has, but nothing has changed at all. Russia is attacking in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with minimal success, while Ukraine is attacking westward, in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and is also advancing. Russia failed to achieve a strategic initiative during the spring offensive. But the most important thing, as I mentioned earlier, is the strikes deep into Russia, which are becoming more painful with each passing month. I get the impression that Ukraine now has parity in drones. Europe is increasing drone production on its own territory. Ukraine has begun using drones with artificial intelligence. According to local residents, something similar is happening in Energodar now.
Drones continue to displace traditional weapons with each passing month; very soon they will no longer be needed. War is becoming much cheaper, which is very beneficial for Ukraine. I haven’t seen Zelenskyy so confident in a long time.
All that’s left is to wait for your forecasts by mid-summer.
Did you see a recent interview with Karaganov where he basically says that the west does not understand what nuclear deterrence is, and that his view is that Russia will eventually end up striking a NATO country, first conventionally, and then if the message doesn’t get through then using a limited nuclear strike as a demonstration. It seems that’s where we’re headed at this point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Gd5jdl36cg
Did you see a recent interview with Karaganov where he basically says that the west does not understand what nuclear deterrence is, and that his view is that Russia will eventually end up striking a NATO country, first conventionally, and then if the message doesn’t get through then using a limited nuclear strike as a demonstration. It seems that’s where we’re headed at this point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Gd5jdl36cg
I actually got banned from Reddit for the second time for saying exactly this while replying to you. The only difference was that I was talking about a non-nuclear strike. And I added that Russia needed to carry this out as quickly as possible—otherwise, things would only get worse down the road.
As you can see for yourself, time has passed, and a simple strike is no longer enough to resolve the situation.
Karaganov is close to Putin; when he speaks, it isn’t just an interview—it is a direct message to the West, delivered through Western influencers, intended specifically for people like you to see.
This is an information game, playing out against the backdrop of Russia recently beginning to test captured Western weaponry. The underlying premise is that the West will eventually come to its senses, because things have already gone much too far. Those drone incursions deep into Russian territory pose a genuine threat to Russia—a real threat, regardless of what is happening on the front lines. Ukraine is already capable of launching a thousand drones a day… and that number is only going to rise.
I still think this will be the big deciding factor. Europe can talk a big talk, but people have to eat. As Lenin put it, every society is three meals away from chaos. You saw how even Kid Starver tried to roll back sanctions on Russian energy, that tells you all you need to know about how bad the situation is.
Damn it—I was in the middle of writing you a really long reply when the power went out and my computer shut down. I switched over to my backup power supply, but drafts don’t save on this setup… Argh.
Let’s talk tomorrow, Comrade! I’ll say just one thing: I first found out about the massive shelling from the news this morning. It was relatively quiet on our end last night.
I also wanted to discuss the JPMorgan forecast with you, as well as the potential scenarios for how the war in Ukraine might end.
Oh that sucks about the power, and I saw their report. We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me. I do think it’s an indication that they see the gig is up now. Another sign is that Europe is now scrambling to find a negotiator, definitely not a thing they’d be doing if they genuinely thought they were winning.
We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me.
This reveals the plans Europe is currently formulating.
It shows the terms they are willing to accept. A new, optimal scenario for the end of the war has emerged.
50% — 3. The Base Scenario: “Finlandization” Prior to NATO Membership (The New Scenario)
Under this scenario, Ukraine cedes a portion of its territory but retains its sovereignty and strategic orientation. It rebuilds its military, invests in its industrial base, and gradually integrates into Europe—both economically and politically. Formal NATO membership remains out of reach in the near term, and Kyiv may be compelled to exercise a certain degree of strategic restraint so as not to provoke Moscow. However, over time, Ukraine builds up its own deterrence capabilities and deepens its Western alignment—ultimately joining the EU and, potentially, NATO in the long run.
Provided that the European economy does not collapse this year, I view this scenario as plausible. However, this scenario fails to account for the domestic political climate within Ukraine, as well as the potential for internal social conflict. One must consider the system itself—founded on corruption and graft—along with the hundreds of thousands of soldiers returning from the front, and the staggering quantity of weaponry that will inevitably remain in private hands. Once the war concludes—and assuming, as I foresee, that the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) are disbanded—I believe a new Maidan uprising and a new civil war will ensue. Currently, Budanov is making bold, high-profile statements; yet, he remains largely in the shadows, avoiding any rash moves that might tarnish his reputation in the slightest. I am convinced that the West is actively grooming him to become the next President of Ukraine—specifically to fit the scenario outlined above.
Incidentally, the “Georgian Scenario”—to which J.P. Morgan assigns a 30% probability—is also a possibility; however, this would likely only occur if Europe proves unable to cope with the situation or if a major military collapse takes place on the front lines.
The Georgian Scenario. In the absence of both foreign troops and firm security guarantees, Ukraine will experience chronic instability, stunted growth and recovery, a gradual fading of foreign support, and the effective derailment of Western integration—specifically, membership in the EU and NATO. Over time, Kyiv could drift back into Russia’s orbit—politically, economically, and strategically—without a formal capitulation.
The remaining scenarios strike me as unlikely. The “Georgian scenario” is the one that best suits Russia and, in my view, is the most realistic.
I can’t see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia. I expect that any scenario where the war ends will result in Ukraine having a compliant regime and forced neutrality. It will not be allowed to join NATO or EU at this point, and there will be a big cap on the size of the army. So, I think the Georgian scenario is the most likely one as well.
I still think this will be the big deciding factor.
Let’s put it this way: this is the only factor capable of bringing the war to a halt in the near future.
As for the situation on the ground, we are witnessing yet another spiral of escalation. The stakes are rising—particularly in the wake of the recent Ukrainian strike on a student dormitory in the Luhansk region. Eighteen teenagers—both boys and girls—were pulled from the rubble. Retaliation now lies ahead…
It is as if even nature itself is serving as a reminder of this; right now, the sky above us looks like this.
You saw how even Kid Starver tried to roll back sanctions on Russian energy
As far as I know, the sanctions against Russia have already been lifted for another month.
We know perfectly well that they have no other choice; they will go all the way.
The “end” comes when popular unrest boils over. For now, Europe has the situation under control.
I believe that if a fuel crisis does strike Europe, it will happen in August or September—precisely when vast quantities of fuel are needed to power machinery during the harvest season. I’ve already observed that farmers there are facing significant difficulties even without this added burden. We have witnessed farmer protests in various European countries on numerous occasions. I suspect that this sector will serve as the primary driving force behind future protests, eventually joined by workers from other industries affected by the fuel crisis. However, this scenario will only unfold if Europe fails to stabilize the situation in the fuel market. Protests of this magnitude require extremely compelling grounds.
If I were to post this on Reddit, I’d be banned instantly. I am not advocating for protests; rather, I am attempting to visualize the scenario—to imagine how such events might be triggered. I’ve imagined how it might start; as for how it might end—that, too, is conceivable: it will all culminate in Hungary and Slovakia becoming the wealthiest nations in Europe, as refugees from Brussels, London, and Paris come flocking to their borders… ))) And those with a bit more daring might head to Russia—to work on construction sites… ))) I’m only joking about that last part, of course; I certainly don’t mean to offend anyone…
Moreover, nothing is predetermined yet; the ultimate outcome of this unfolding drama remains shrouded in deep uncertainty.
Agree with all that, the harvest season is going to be when the fuel demand spikes, and that’s also when the reserves are projected to be depleted. So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point. Yes, a bunch of stuff in Kiev is burning now, but it’s not really going to change anything. I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
If they’re saying this openly, I’m guessing the real situation is a lot worse then they’re letting on. We’ll see if they manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat to solve the fuel crisis, but I just don’t see where the fuel is going to come from. And Europe now competes with Asia for whatever fuel is on the market too. So, next few months will be very interesting.
I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
Google Translate doesn’t handle this format, but I got the gist of what it’s about.
So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point.
Yes, nobody is surprised by the Oreshnik anymore—the visual spectacle just doesn’t have the same shock value it used to. There was no palpable sense of terror. At the start of the war, things were much more intense in Kyiv; people were sleeping in the metro for weeks on end. That simply wasn’t the case this time.
It appears that, for the moment, Russia is not prepared to further escalate the conflict.
I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end.
Yeah, shortages will likely start in a couple months, and then there’s going to be a spike in demand for fuel in fall when it’s planting season. And if farmers can’t afford the fuel to plant, there there could be a food crisis across Europe. It’s entirely possible Russia is waiting to see how bad the situation in Europe gets in the next couple of months before escalating.
a very different culture here from reddit, and didn’t know that either about Yusupov
I also lost your link to the section on Ukraine. I’ll write it here.
Regarding our conversation at the beginning of spring about what’s happening.
My vision of the situation on the front is coming true so far. We were waiting for the green stuff to appear. It has, but nothing has changed at all. Russia is attacking in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with minimal success, while Ukraine is attacking westward, in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and is also advancing. Russia failed to achieve a strategic initiative during the spring offensive. But the most important thing, as I mentioned earlier, is the strikes deep into Russia, which are becoming more painful with each passing month. I get the impression that Ukraine now has parity in drones. Europe is increasing drone production on its own territory. Ukraine has begun using drones with artificial intelligence. According to local residents, something similar is happening in Energodar now. Drones continue to displace traditional weapons with each passing month; very soon they will no longer be needed. War is becoming much cheaper, which is very beneficial for Ukraine. I haven’t seen Zelenskyy so confident in a long time. All that’s left is to wait for your forecasts by mid-summer.
Did you see a recent interview with Karaganov where he basically says that the west does not understand what nuclear deterrence is, and that his view is that Russia will eventually end up striking a NATO country, first conventionally, and then if the message doesn’t get through then using a limited nuclear strike as a demonstration. It seems that’s where we’re headed at this point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Gd5jdl36cg
Incidentally, Mearsheimer agrees with Karaganov and also thinks that Russia has to reestablish nuclear deterrence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dx7osj5gCmo
I actually got banned from Reddit for the second time for saying exactly this while replying to you. The only difference was that I was talking about a non-nuclear strike. And I added that Russia needed to carry this out as quickly as possible—otherwise, things would only get worse down the road.
As you can see for yourself, time has passed, and a simple strike is no longer enough to resolve the situation.
Karaganov is close to Putin; when he speaks, it isn’t just an interview—it is a direct message to the West, delivered through Western influencers, intended specifically for people like you to see.
This is an information game, playing out against the backdrop of Russia recently beginning to test captured Western weaponry. The underlying premise is that the West will eventually come to its senses, because things have already gone much too far. Those drone incursions deep into Russian territory pose a genuine threat to Russia—a real threat, regardless of what is happening on the front lines. Ukraine is already capable of launching a thousand drones a day… and that number is only going to rise.
We’ll have to see what happens in the next three month when the real energy shortages hit https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/oil-market-clock-is-ticking-supply-crunch-looms-2026-05-21/
I still think this will be the big deciding factor. Europe can talk a big talk, but people have to eat. As Lenin put it, every society is three meals away from chaos. You saw how even Kid Starver tried to roll back sanctions on Russian energy, that tells you all you need to know about how bad the situation is.
Damn it—I was in the middle of writing you a really long reply when the power went out and my computer shut down. I switched over to my backup power supply, but drafts don’t save on this setup… Argh.
Let’s talk tomorrow, Comrade! I’ll say just one thing: I first found out about the massive shelling from the news this morning. It was relatively quiet on our end last night.
I also wanted to discuss the JPMorgan forecast with you, as well as the potential scenarios for how the war in Ukraine might end.
https://logos-pres.md/en/news/jpmorgan-chase-analysts-predict-a-finnish-scenario-for-ukraine/
Oh that sucks about the power, and I saw their report. We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me. I do think it’s an indication that they see the gig is up now. Another sign is that Europe is now scrambling to find a negotiator, definitely not a thing they’d be doing if they genuinely thought they were winning.
This reveals the plans Europe is currently formulating.
It shows the terms they are willing to accept. A new, optimal scenario for the end of the war has emerged.
50% — 3. The Base Scenario: “Finlandization” Prior to NATO Membership (The New Scenario)
Under this scenario, Ukraine cedes a portion of its territory but retains its sovereignty and strategic orientation. It rebuilds its military, invests in its industrial base, and gradually integrates into Europe—both economically and politically. Formal NATO membership remains out of reach in the near term, and Kyiv may be compelled to exercise a certain degree of strategic restraint so as not to provoke Moscow. However, over time, Ukraine builds up its own deterrence capabilities and deepens its Western alignment—ultimately joining the EU and, potentially, NATO in the long run.
Provided that the European economy does not collapse this year, I view this scenario as plausible. However, this scenario fails to account for the domestic political climate within Ukraine, as well as the potential for internal social conflict. One must consider the system itself—founded on corruption and graft—along with the hundreds of thousands of soldiers returning from the front, and the staggering quantity of weaponry that will inevitably remain in private hands. Once the war concludes—and assuming, as I foresee, that the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) are disbanded—I believe a new Maidan uprising and a new civil war will ensue. Currently, Budanov is making bold, high-profile statements; yet, he remains largely in the shadows, avoiding any rash moves that might tarnish his reputation in the slightest. I am convinced that the West is actively grooming him to become the next President of Ukraine—specifically to fit the scenario outlined above.
Incidentally, the “Georgian Scenario”—to which J.P. Morgan assigns a 30% probability—is also a possibility; however, this would likely only occur if Europe proves unable to cope with the situation or if a major military collapse takes place on the front lines.
The Georgian Scenario. In the absence of both foreign troops and firm security guarantees, Ukraine will experience chronic instability, stunted growth and recovery, a gradual fading of foreign support, and the effective derailment of Western integration—specifically, membership in the EU and NATO. Over time, Kyiv could drift back into Russia’s orbit—politically, economically, and strategically—without a formal capitulation.
The remaining scenarios strike me as unlikely. The “Georgian scenario” is the one that best suits Russia and, in my view, is the most realistic.
I can’t see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia. I expect that any scenario where the war ends will result in Ukraine having a compliant regime and forced neutrality. It will not be allowed to join NATO or EU at this point, and there will be a big cap on the size of the army. So, I think the Georgian scenario is the most likely one as well.
Let’s put it this way: this is the only factor capable of bringing the war to a halt in the near future.
As for the situation on the ground, we are witnessing yet another spiral of escalation. The stakes are rising—particularly in the wake of the recent Ukrainian strike on a student dormitory in the Luhansk region. Eighteen teenagers—both boys and girls—were pulled from the rubble. Retaliation now lies ahead…
It is as if even nature itself is serving as a reminder of this; right now, the sky above us looks like this.
As far as I know, the sanctions against Russia have already been lifted for another month.
Maybe that’s not what I’m talking about.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-treasury-extend-sanction-waiver-russian-seaborne-oil-source-says-2026-05-18/
We know perfectly well that they have no other choice; they will go all the way.
The “end” comes when popular unrest boils over. For now, Europe has the situation under control.
I believe that if a fuel crisis does strike Europe, it will happen in August or September—precisely when vast quantities of fuel are needed to power machinery during the harvest season. I’ve already observed that farmers there are facing significant difficulties even without this added burden. We have witnessed farmer protests in various European countries on numerous occasions. I suspect that this sector will serve as the primary driving force behind future protests, eventually joined by workers from other industries affected by the fuel crisis. However, this scenario will only unfold if Europe fails to stabilize the situation in the fuel market. Protests of this magnitude require extremely compelling grounds.
If I were to post this on Reddit, I’d be banned instantly. I am not advocating for protests; rather, I am attempting to visualize the scenario—to imagine how such events might be triggered. I’ve imagined how it might start; as for how it might end—that, too, is conceivable: it will all culminate in Hungary and Slovakia becoming the wealthiest nations in Europe, as refugees from Brussels, London, and Paris come flocking to their borders… ))) And those with a bit more daring might head to Russia—to work on construction sites… ))) I’m only joking about that last part, of course; I certainly don’t mean to offend anyone…
Moreover, nothing is predetermined yet; the ultimate outcome of this unfolding drama remains shrouded in deep uncertainty.
Agree with all that, the harvest season is going to be when the fuel demand spikes, and that’s also when the reserves are projected to be depleted. So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point. Yes, a bunch of stuff in Kiev is burning now, but it’s not really going to change anything. I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
If they’re saying this openly, I’m guessing the real situation is a lot worse then they’re letting on. We’ll see if they manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat to solve the fuel crisis, but I just don’t see where the fuel is going to come from. And Europe now competes with Asia for whatever fuel is on the market too. So, next few months will be very interesting.
It turns out I guessed correctly: farmers will be the first to suffer—specifically when the harvest begins.
In two months, we will realize just how serious the crisis in Europe really is.
Google Translate doesn’t handle this format, but I got the gist of what it’s about.
Yes, nobody is surprised by the Oreshnik anymore—the visual spectacle just doesn’t have the same shock value it used to. There was no palpable sense of terror. At the start of the war, things were much more intense in Kyiv; people were sleeping in the metro for weeks on end. That simply wasn’t the case this time.
It appears that, for the moment, Russia is not prepared to further escalate the conflict.
Надежда умирает последней!)))
Yeah, shortages will likely start in a couple months, and then there’s going to be a spike in demand for fuel in fall when it’s planting season. And if farmers can’t afford the fuel to plant, there there could be a food crisis across Europe. It’s entirely possible Russia is waiting to see how bad the situation in Europe gets in the next couple of months before escalating.