I still think this will be the big deciding factor. Europe can talk a big talk, but people have to eat. As Lenin put it, every society is three meals away from chaos. You saw how even Kid Starver tried to roll back sanctions on Russian energy, that tells you all you need to know about how bad the situation is.
I still think this will be the big deciding factor.
Let’s put it this way: this is the only factor capable of bringing the war to a halt in the near future.
As for the situation on the ground, we are witnessing yet another spiral of escalation. The stakes are rising—particularly in the wake of the recent Ukrainian strike on a student dormitory in the Luhansk region. Eighteen teenagers—both boys and girls—were pulled from the rubble. Retaliation now lies ahead…
It is as if even nature itself is serving as a reminder of this; right now, the sky above us looks like this.
You saw how even Kid Starver tried to roll back sanctions on Russian energy
As far as I know, the sanctions against Russia have already been lifted for another month.
We know perfectly well that they have no other choice; they will go all the way.
The “end” comes when popular unrest boils over. For now, Europe has the situation under control.
I believe that if a fuel crisis does strike Europe, it will happen in August or September—precisely when vast quantities of fuel are needed to power machinery during the harvest season. I’ve already observed that farmers there are facing significant difficulties even without this added burden. We have witnessed farmer protests in various European countries on numerous occasions. I suspect that this sector will serve as the primary driving force behind future protests, eventually joined by workers from other industries affected by the fuel crisis. However, this scenario will only unfold if Europe fails to stabilize the situation in the fuel market. Protests of this magnitude require extremely compelling grounds.
If I were to post this on Reddit, I’d be banned instantly. I am not advocating for protests; rather, I am attempting to visualize the scenario—to imagine how such events might be triggered. I’ve imagined how it might start; as for how it might end—that, too, is conceivable: it will all culminate in Hungary and Slovakia becoming the wealthiest nations in Europe, as refugees from Brussels, London, and Paris come flocking to their borders… ))) And those with a bit more daring might head to Russia—to work on construction sites… ))) I’m only joking about that last part, of course; I certainly don’t mean to offend anyone…
Moreover, nothing is predetermined yet; the ultimate outcome of this unfolding drama remains shrouded in deep uncertainty.
Agree with all that, the harvest season is going to be when the fuel demand spikes, and that’s also when the reserves are projected to be depleted. So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point. Yes, a bunch of stuff in Kiev is burning now, but it’s not really going to change anything. I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
If they’re saying this openly, I’m guessing the real situation is a lot worse then they’re letting on. We’ll see if they manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat to solve the fuel crisis, but I just don’t see where the fuel is going to come from. And Europe now competes with Asia for whatever fuel is on the market too. So, next few months will be very interesting.
I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
Google Translate doesn’t handle this format, but I got the gist of what it’s about.
So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point.
Yes, nobody is surprised by the Oreshnik anymore—the visual spectacle just doesn’t have the same shock value it used to. There was no palpable sense of terror. At the start of the war, things were much more intense in Kyiv; people were sleeping in the metro for weeks on end. That simply wasn’t the case this time.
It appears that, for the moment, Russia is not prepared to further escalate the conflict.
I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end.
Yeah, shortages will likely start in a couple months, and then there’s going to be a spike in demand for fuel in fall when it’s planting season. And if farmers can’t afford the fuel to plant, there there could be a food crisis across Europe. It’s entirely possible Russia is waiting to see how bad the situation in Europe gets in the next couple of months before escalating.
One can surmise the plans Ukraine is currently formulating for the coming months.
Disregarding casualties, the objective is to nullify all Russian offensive efforts while—in one specific sector (Zaporizhzhia)—breaching Russian defenses, again without regard for losses. We observe that, of late, systematic strikes are being launched against the logistical artery running from Russia southward toward the Zaporizhzhia region. That entire road is already littered with burnt-out military hardware, which is hampering supply lines to the Zaporizhzhia front.
Furthermore, there is the systematic delivery of painful strikes deep within Russian territory.
All of this is aimed at ratcheting up the domestic political tension in Russia—and public discontent regarding the war—by the time of the autumn parliamentary elections. Against the backdrop of current events, this is a very real possibility.
No, Russia is not simply waiting; Russia has no time to spare. It needs to demonstrate tangible results and victories by autumn so that its people can at least understand why they are forced to endure daily Ukrainian drone attacks.
At this moment, the outcomes of the summer campaign are of critical importance to Russia—real results. And the crisis in Europe, which is expected to unfold in a few months, cannot in any way alter the course of events.
By piecing all the facts together, we can now understand the true significance of the “Spirit of Anchorage”—and exactly what Putin and Trump agreed upon there.
The Ukrainians would be required to withdraw their troops from the Donbas and then sit down at the negotiating table, where issues such as the size of Ukraine’s armed forces, language policy, religious matters, and the like would be discussed.
However, it seems to me that had Zelenskyy agreed to withdraw troops from the Donbas, he would not have survived long enough to reach the negotiating stage; he would have been ousted by disgruntled Ukrainians. The moment the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCK) are disbanded, the public will react aggressively; likewise, the AFU soldiers returning from the front lines would tear Zelenskyy apart. I have spoken with people who are fighting over there. They all hate Zelenskyy! Both the “Bucha-fied” troops and the regular ones—of whom not many remain.
They will not forgive him for the “meat grinder” assaults. They are already expressing deep outrage over what is unfolding in the Zaporizhzhia sector. The Russians simply cannot fight in such a suicidal manner; that is why they are currently retreating there.
Therefore, a withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donbas would amount to a death sentence for Zelenskyy. That is why Trump was unable to force Zelenskyy’s hand—and why Trump once again deceived Putin, having promised him that he would persuade Zelenskyy to do so. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has once again caught his stride; he looks remarkably energetic and has resumed hurling insults at Putin. And the “Mindich Tapes” are of no consequence to him; as far as he is concerned, everything is just fine.
Putin has now vowed to launch systematic strikes against Kyiv, but I suspect this is merely a tactic to frighten the populace—assuming, that is, that these strikes unfold just as they have in the past. What is needed is a tangible result. Indiscriminate, ineffective strikes serve only to play into Zelenskyy’s hands, providing him with fodder for public relations campaigns in Europe.
Seems to me that it’s most likely Russia is going to ramp things up in the near future. And the focus will be on deep strikes on command centres and industry. Lavrov made it pretty clear that gloves are coming off. One big factor was that China didn’t really want escalation previously, but it looks like Americans managed to piss the Chinese off royally during their visit. Seems like after Russians went to China they agreed that Ukraine needs to get wrapped up, and that dialogue with Americans is impossible.
Seems to me that it’s most likely Russia is going to ramp things up in the near future.
Yes, without this, there won’t be any meaning at all…
And the focus will be on deep strikes on command centres and industry. Lavrov made it pretty clear that gloves are coming off.
As for industrial facilities—strikes against them will no longer make any serious impression.
As for decision-making centers—that depends on how effective Russia’s intelligence capabilities are. Russia possesses nothing even remotely comparable to the intelligence assets held by the United States and Israel. I do not believe Russia is capable of executing strikes with such precision. During their recent “retaliatory strike” against Kyiv, they attempted to achieve something, but the result was nil—including in terms of intimidating the civilian population.
Seems like after Russians went to China they agreed that Ukraine needs to get wrapped up, and that dialogue with Americans is impossible.
I am skeptical about this. It seems to me that China will not risk a severe escalation with the United States. China will continue to play a waiting game.
Meanwhile, in Russia—on state-run channels—everyone keeps talking about the “Spirit of Anchorage.” I was reading about it there again just yesterday.
At this moment, the situation remains uncertain. The Russians have realized that Trump is unable to bring the war to an end. Now, everyone is waiting to see what further actions Russia will take.
As the saying goes: the only good CIA agent is a dead CIA agent… )))) However, I think he got his facts mixed up.
In 1689, the Treaty of Nerchinsk was signed—the first agreement between Russia and China (the Qing Empire).
The Russian Tsardom: It lost a significant portion of the Amur region as well as lands along the upper Amur River. Russia was forced to dismantle the fortress of Albazin and liquidate the Russian settlements located there; the border was established along the Argun and Gorbitsa rivers.
For Russia, this was a humiliating outcome—not the other way around. The second guy was right: China was the one that suffered territorial losses under the Treaty of Aigun, during the reign of Alexander II.
Comrade, I listened to his take on the conflict over Damansky Island, and it hit me… ))) It turns out that the Soviets were the ones planning to attack China.
Well, just think about it yourself: China lays claim to Soviet territory—territory that Nicholas II supposedly annexed illegally—yet, despite all this, the USSR is supposedly the one planning to attack China. Does that remind you of anything?.. ))))
Back then, China had a idée fixe: to tear up the Treaties of Aigun and Peking.
The Treaties of Aigun and Peking (1858 and 1860) were key interstate agreements between the Russian Empire and the Manchu Qing Empire. They secured vast territories in the Far East for Russia and established the modern border with China.
At that time, China massed two divisions—15,000 troops—along its border with the USSR and was preparing to launch a major military operation.
And don’t forget that just a year after the Damansky incident, the Chinese launched another attack—this time along the Kazakh border. Kazakhstan was not covered by the Treaty of Aigun. Kazakhstan has never belonged to China.
You’ll notice once again that the moment the conversation turns to China, contradictions immediately crop up between us. On every single issue.
People here keep telling me that I need to “think dialectically” in order to understand it all… ))) But I don’t understand a damn thing…
I’ve known since childhood that it was China that wanted to attack—not the other way around. I remember that Brezhnev was deeply alarmed by the concentration of forces along the border, yet he issued orders not to succumb to provocations; consequently, the Chinese were met solely by border guards, who held the line against an overwhelming enemy force until the regular army could be brought up. These border guards were subsequently hailed as heroes throughout the USSR, though many of them perished.
As for the current relations between Russia and China, I would very much like to see what he says come true…
Iran makes it pretty clear just how bad US/Israeli intelligence is. And the US is no longer in any position to do escalation in China because they shat the bed in Iran. They’re literally out of weapons at this point, and their economy is collapsing because of oil prices. Cost of filling up your car basically doubled now, and you can’t go anywhere without a car in the US. This is the biggest crisis since Vietnam.
There is no other path for Russia or China today than what he says. Neither Chinese nor Russian leadership is stupid, and they can see that the only way they survive is by working together. And their economies are complimentary on top of that, they have nothing to fight about. Russia is a resource economy and China is a manufacturing one. It’s the exact same situation as the US and Canada.
Damn it—I was in the middle of writing you a really long reply when the power went out and my computer shut down. I switched over to my backup power supply, but drafts don’t save on this setup… Argh.
Let’s talk tomorrow, Comrade! I’ll say just one thing: I first found out about the massive shelling from the news this morning. It was relatively quiet on our end last night.
I also wanted to discuss the JPMorgan forecast with you, as well as the potential scenarios for how the war in Ukraine might end.
Oh that sucks about the power, and I saw their report. We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me. I do think it’s an indication that they see the gig is up now. Another sign is that Europe is now scrambling to find a negotiator, definitely not a thing they’d be doing if they genuinely thought they were winning.
We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me.
This reveals the plans Europe is currently formulating.
It shows the terms they are willing to accept. A new, optimal scenario for the end of the war has emerged.
50% — 3. The Base Scenario: “Finlandization” Prior to NATO Membership (The New Scenario)
Under this scenario, Ukraine cedes a portion of its territory but retains its sovereignty and strategic orientation. It rebuilds its military, invests in its industrial base, and gradually integrates into Europe—both economically and politically. Formal NATO membership remains out of reach in the near term, and Kyiv may be compelled to exercise a certain degree of strategic restraint so as not to provoke Moscow. However, over time, Ukraine builds up its own deterrence capabilities and deepens its Western alignment—ultimately joining the EU and, potentially, NATO in the long run.
Provided that the European economy does not collapse this year, I view this scenario as plausible. However, this scenario fails to account for the domestic political climate within Ukraine, as well as the potential for internal social conflict. One must consider the system itself—founded on corruption and graft—along with the hundreds of thousands of soldiers returning from the front, and the staggering quantity of weaponry that will inevitably remain in private hands. Once the war concludes—and assuming, as I foresee, that the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) are disbanded—I believe a new Maidan uprising and a new civil war will ensue. Currently, Budanov is making bold, high-profile statements; yet, he remains largely in the shadows, avoiding any rash moves that might tarnish his reputation in the slightest. I am convinced that the West is actively grooming him to become the next President of Ukraine—specifically to fit the scenario outlined above.
Incidentally, the “Georgian Scenario”—to which J.P. Morgan assigns a 30% probability—is also a possibility; however, this would likely only occur if Europe proves unable to cope with the situation or if a major military collapse takes place on the front lines.
The Georgian Scenario. In the absence of both foreign troops and firm security guarantees, Ukraine will experience chronic instability, stunted growth and recovery, a gradual fading of foreign support, and the effective derailment of Western integration—specifically, membership in the EU and NATO. Over time, Kyiv could drift back into Russia’s orbit—politically, economically, and strategically—without a formal capitulation.
The remaining scenarios strike me as unlikely. The “Georgian scenario” is the one that best suits Russia and, in my view, is the most realistic.
I can’t see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia. I expect that any scenario where the war ends will result in Ukraine having a compliant regime and forced neutrality. It will not be allowed to join NATO or EU at this point, and there will be a big cap on the size of the army. So, I think the Georgian scenario is the most likely one as well.
I can’t see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia.
The Kill Zone—it is constantly expanding. This has fundamentally altered the nature of warfare. Victory now belongs to whoever exercises superior control over the Kill Zone. In this context, defense is far easier, as infantry is rendered virtually obsolete.
To seize the strategic initiative, one must establish absolute dominance within the Kill Zone.
We are currently engaged in a war of technology—not a war of men or tanks. You have likely heard about the recent visit from an American entrepreneur who owns a company contracted by the Pentagon to develop and manufacture AI technologies for the defense industry. The Pentagon’s cutting-edge innovations are currently being field-tested in Ukraine. Russia is finding it difficult to keep pace.
And it is precisely this factor that will play the decisive role in the upcoming summer campaign.
I think we’ll have to wait and see here. American technology has proven itself to be hype many times in the past, and I wouldn’t jump to conclusions here.
If Russia was intentionally going to do an attack outside Ukraine they would do a bigger one, likely with Oreshnik and on a military target. I think two most likely possibilities here is either a stray drone or Ukraine using a scavenged one to try draw NATO in.
This company has secured a contract from the Pentagon to manufacture American-made Shahed-style drones equipped with AI. New models are being tested in Ukraine under combat conditions—something we are witnessing right now.
Currently, Russia and the U.S. are essentially competing in technology. I believe that the U.S. holds the advantage in the use of AI.
Perhaps China, too, might want to test something of its own… ))
However, China has no desire to escalate tensions with the U.S., so it is highly unlikely to do so.
Right now, everyone is anticipating strikes on Kyiv. If this turns out to be yet another “final Chinese warning” from Russia, it will start looking a lot like Trump’s style. The Russians need to take action—but at this moment, I simply cannot imagine what that action could be that would actually take everyone by surprise. Putin currently finds himself in a difficult situation. The Europeans are becoming increasingly brazen; they have refused to evacuate their embassies from Kyiv, thereby demonstrating that they have absolutely no fear of Putin.
Ukraine’s strategy is clear, and they have staked everything on it: to destabilize Russia internally as much as possible—and as intensely as possible—before the Russian elections this autumn. Their objective is to hold the front lines against any major breakthroughs, while simultaneously inflicting maximum damage through strikes deep inside Russian territory.
What countermeasures Russia will be able to deploy against this—and whether it will be adequately prepared to do so—remains to be seen.
I honestly don’t think China cares what US thinks because they have Americans by the balls. The US economy cannot function without Chinese exports. Period. Did you see how Trump was behaving in China? That tells you everything. Not only will China be testing their AI for drones in Ukraine, they will also continue to cut off rare earths supply to the US which is what you need to make components for these drones.
And I expect there will be strikes coming. I also don’t understand Ukraine’s strategy. It’s important to remember that Putin is a moderate, and if he lost then it would almost certainly be somebody much more hard line, and then gloves will come off fully.
We’ll have to see what happens in the next three month when the real energy shortages hit https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/oil-market-clock-is-ticking-supply-crunch-looms-2026-05-21/
I still think this will be the big deciding factor. Europe can talk a big talk, but people have to eat. As Lenin put it, every society is three meals away from chaos. You saw how even Kid Starver tried to roll back sanctions on Russian energy, that tells you all you need to know about how bad the situation is.
Let’s put it this way: this is the only factor capable of bringing the war to a halt in the near future.
As for the situation on the ground, we are witnessing yet another spiral of escalation. The stakes are rising—particularly in the wake of the recent Ukrainian strike on a student dormitory in the Luhansk region. Eighteen teenagers—both boys and girls—were pulled from the rubble. Retaliation now lies ahead…
It is as if even nature itself is serving as a reminder of this; right now, the sky above us looks like this.
As far as I know, the sanctions against Russia have already been lifted for another month.
Maybe that’s not what I’m talking about.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-treasury-extend-sanction-waiver-russian-seaborne-oil-source-says-2026-05-18/
We know perfectly well that they have no other choice; they will go all the way.
The “end” comes when popular unrest boils over. For now, Europe has the situation under control.
I believe that if a fuel crisis does strike Europe, it will happen in August or September—precisely when vast quantities of fuel are needed to power machinery during the harvest season. I’ve already observed that farmers there are facing significant difficulties even without this added burden. We have witnessed farmer protests in various European countries on numerous occasions. I suspect that this sector will serve as the primary driving force behind future protests, eventually joined by workers from other industries affected by the fuel crisis. However, this scenario will only unfold if Europe fails to stabilize the situation in the fuel market. Protests of this magnitude require extremely compelling grounds.
If I were to post this on Reddit, I’d be banned instantly. I am not advocating for protests; rather, I am attempting to visualize the scenario—to imagine how such events might be triggered. I’ve imagined how it might start; as for how it might end—that, too, is conceivable: it will all culminate in Hungary and Slovakia becoming the wealthiest nations in Europe, as refugees from Brussels, London, and Paris come flocking to their borders… ))) And those with a bit more daring might head to Russia—to work on construction sites… ))) I’m only joking about that last part, of course; I certainly don’t mean to offend anyone…
Moreover, nothing is predetermined yet; the ultimate outcome of this unfolding drama remains shrouded in deep uncertainty.
Agree with all that, the harvest season is going to be when the fuel demand spikes, and that’s also when the reserves are projected to be depleted. So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point. Yes, a bunch of stuff in Kiev is burning now, but it’s not really going to change anything. I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
If they’re saying this openly, I’m guessing the real situation is a lot worse then they’re letting on. We’ll see if they manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat to solve the fuel crisis, but I just don’t see where the fuel is going to come from. And Europe now competes with Asia for whatever fuel is on the market too. So, next few months will be very interesting.
It turns out I guessed correctly: farmers will be the first to suffer—specifically when the harvest begins.
In two months, we will realize just how serious the crisis in Europe really is.
Google Translate doesn’t handle this format, but I got the gist of what it’s about.
Yes, nobody is surprised by the Oreshnik anymore—the visual spectacle just doesn’t have the same shock value it used to. There was no palpable sense of terror. At the start of the war, things were much more intense in Kyiv; people were sleeping in the metro for weeks on end. That simply wasn’t the case this time.
It appears that, for the moment, Russia is not prepared to further escalate the conflict.
Надежда умирает последней!)))
Yeah, shortages will likely start in a couple months, and then there’s going to be a spike in demand for fuel in fall when it’s planting season. And if farmers can’t afford the fuel to plant, there there could be a food crisis across Europe. It’s entirely possible Russia is waiting to see how bad the situation in Europe gets in the next couple of months before escalating.
One can surmise the plans Ukraine is currently formulating for the coming months.
Disregarding casualties, the objective is to nullify all Russian offensive efforts while—in one specific sector (Zaporizhzhia)—breaching Russian defenses, again without regard for losses. We observe that, of late, systematic strikes are being launched against the logistical artery running from Russia southward toward the Zaporizhzhia region. That entire road is already littered with burnt-out military hardware, which is hampering supply lines to the Zaporizhzhia front.
Furthermore, there is the systematic delivery of painful strikes deep within Russian territory.
All of this is aimed at ratcheting up the domestic political tension in Russia—and public discontent regarding the war—by the time of the autumn parliamentary elections. Against the backdrop of current events, this is a very real possibility.
No, Russia is not simply waiting; Russia has no time to spare. It needs to demonstrate tangible results and victories by autumn so that its people can at least understand why they are forced to endure daily Ukrainian drone attacks.
At this moment, the outcomes of the summer campaign are of critical importance to Russia—real results. And the crisis in Europe, which is expected to unfold in a few months, cannot in any way alter the course of events.
By piecing all the facts together, we can now understand the true significance of the “Spirit of Anchorage”—and exactly what Putin and Trump agreed upon there.
The Ukrainians would be required to withdraw their troops from the Donbas and then sit down at the negotiating table, where issues such as the size of Ukraine’s armed forces, language policy, religious matters, and the like would be discussed.
However, it seems to me that had Zelenskyy agreed to withdraw troops from the Donbas, he would not have survived long enough to reach the negotiating stage; he would have been ousted by disgruntled Ukrainians. The moment the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCK) are disbanded, the public will react aggressively; likewise, the AFU soldiers returning from the front lines would tear Zelenskyy apart. I have spoken with people who are fighting over there. They all hate Zelenskyy! Both the “Bucha-fied” troops and the regular ones—of whom not many remain. They will not forgive him for the “meat grinder” assaults. They are already expressing deep outrage over what is unfolding in the Zaporizhzhia sector. The Russians simply cannot fight in such a suicidal manner; that is why they are currently retreating there.
Therefore, a withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donbas would amount to a death sentence for Zelenskyy. That is why Trump was unable to force Zelenskyy’s hand—and why Trump once again deceived Putin, having promised him that he would persuade Zelenskyy to do so. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has once again caught his stride; he looks remarkably energetic and has resumed hurling insults at Putin. And the “Mindich Tapes” are of no consequence to him; as far as he is concerned, everything is just fine.
Putin has now vowed to launch systematic strikes against Kyiv, but I suspect this is merely a tactic to frighten the populace—assuming, that is, that these strikes unfold just as they have in the past. What is needed is a tangible result. Indiscriminate, ineffective strikes serve only to play into Zelenskyy’s hands, providing him with fodder for public relations campaigns in Europe.
Seems to me that it’s most likely Russia is going to ramp things up in the near future. And the focus will be on deep strikes on command centres and industry. Lavrov made it pretty clear that gloves are coming off. One big factor was that China didn’t really want escalation previously, but it looks like Americans managed to piss the Chinese off royally during their visit. Seems like after Russians went to China they agreed that Ukraine needs to get wrapped up, and that dialogue with Americans is impossible.
A good discussion with a former CIA analyst on the whole thing https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xVVyS7NtB5k
I spoke about this earlier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApNTsQZKiyc
I agree with Mearsheimer, the strike on Kiev doesn’t really mean anything at this point. There will have to be sustained escalation now.
Yes, without this, there won’t be any meaning at all…
As for industrial facilities—strikes against them will no longer make any serious impression.
As for decision-making centers—that depends on how effective Russia’s intelligence capabilities are. Russia possesses nothing even remotely comparable to the intelligence assets held by the United States and Israel. I do not believe Russia is capable of executing strikes with such precision. During their recent “retaliatory strike” against Kyiv, they attempted to achieve something, but the result was nil—including in terms of intimidating the civilian population.
I am skeptical about this. It seems to me that China will not risk a severe escalation with the United States. China will continue to play a waiting game.
Meanwhile, in Russia—on state-run channels—everyone keeps talking about the “Spirit of Anchorage.” I was reading about it there again just yesterday.
At this moment, the situation remains uncertain. The Russians have realized that Trump is unable to bring the war to an end. Now, everyone is waiting to see what further actions Russia will take.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xVVyS7NtB5k
As the saying goes: the only good CIA agent is a dead CIA agent… )))) However, I think he got his facts mixed up.
In 1689, the Treaty of Nerchinsk was signed—the first agreement between Russia and China (the Qing Empire). The Russian Tsardom: It lost a significant portion of the Amur region as well as lands along the upper Amur River. Russia was forced to dismantle the fortress of Albazin and liquidate the Russian settlements located there; the border was established along the Argun and Gorbitsa rivers.
For Russia, this was a humiliating outcome—not the other way around. The second guy was right: China was the one that suffered territorial losses under the Treaty of Aigun, during the reign of Alexander II.
Comrade, I listened to his take on the conflict over Damansky Island, and it hit me… ))) It turns out that the Soviets were the ones planning to attack China.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYHGeLyuH5O/
Well, just think about it yourself: China lays claim to Soviet territory—territory that Nicholas II supposedly annexed illegally—yet, despite all this, the USSR is supposedly the one planning to attack China. Does that remind you of anything?.. ))))
Back then, China had a idée fixe: to tear up the Treaties of Aigun and Peking.
The Treaties of Aigun and Peking (1858 and 1860) were key interstate agreements between the Russian Empire and the Manchu Qing Empire. They secured vast territories in the Far East for Russia and established the modern border with China.
At that time, China massed two divisions—15,000 troops—along its border with the USSR and was preparing to launch a major military operation.
And don’t forget that just a year after the Damansky incident, the Chinese launched another attack—this time along the Kazakh border. Kazakhstan was not covered by the Treaty of Aigun. Kazakhstan has never belonged to China.
You’ll notice once again that the moment the conversation turns to China, contradictions immediately crop up between us. On every single issue.
People here keep telling me that I need to “think dialectically” in order to understand it all… ))) But I don’t understand a damn thing…
I’ve known since childhood that it was China that wanted to attack—not the other way around. I remember that Brezhnev was deeply alarmed by the concentration of forces along the border, yet he issued orders not to succumb to provocations; consequently, the Chinese were met solely by border guards, who held the line against an overwhelming enemy force until the regular army could be brought up. These border guards were subsequently hailed as heroes throughout the USSR, though many of them perished.
As for the current relations between Russia and China, I would very much like to see what he says come true…
Iran makes it pretty clear just how bad US/Israeli intelligence is. And the US is no longer in any position to do escalation in China because they shat the bed in Iran. They’re literally out of weapons at this point, and their economy is collapsing because of oil prices. Cost of filling up your car basically doubled now, and you can’t go anywhere without a car in the US. This is the biggest crisis since Vietnam.
There is no other path for Russia or China today than what he says. Neither Chinese nor Russian leadership is stupid, and they can see that the only way they survive is by working together. And their economies are complimentary on top of that, they have nothing to fight about. Russia is a resource economy and China is a manufacturing one. It’s the exact same situation as the US and Canada.
Damn it—I was in the middle of writing you a really long reply when the power went out and my computer shut down. I switched over to my backup power supply, but drafts don’t save on this setup… Argh.
Let’s talk tomorrow, Comrade! I’ll say just one thing: I first found out about the massive shelling from the news this morning. It was relatively quiet on our end last night.
I also wanted to discuss the JPMorgan forecast with you, as well as the potential scenarios for how the war in Ukraine might end.
https://logos-pres.md/en/news/jpmorgan-chase-analysts-predict-a-finnish-scenario-for-ukraine/
Oh that sucks about the power, and I saw their report. We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me. I do think it’s an indication that they see the gig is up now. Another sign is that Europe is now scrambling to find a negotiator, definitely not a thing they’d be doing if they genuinely thought they were winning.
This reveals the plans Europe is currently formulating.
It shows the terms they are willing to accept. A new, optimal scenario for the end of the war has emerged.
50% — 3. The Base Scenario: “Finlandization” Prior to NATO Membership (The New Scenario)
Under this scenario, Ukraine cedes a portion of its territory but retains its sovereignty and strategic orientation. It rebuilds its military, invests in its industrial base, and gradually integrates into Europe—both economically and politically. Formal NATO membership remains out of reach in the near term, and Kyiv may be compelled to exercise a certain degree of strategic restraint so as not to provoke Moscow. However, over time, Ukraine builds up its own deterrence capabilities and deepens its Western alignment—ultimately joining the EU and, potentially, NATO in the long run.
Provided that the European economy does not collapse this year, I view this scenario as plausible. However, this scenario fails to account for the domestic political climate within Ukraine, as well as the potential for internal social conflict. One must consider the system itself—founded on corruption and graft—along with the hundreds of thousands of soldiers returning from the front, and the staggering quantity of weaponry that will inevitably remain in private hands. Once the war concludes—and assuming, as I foresee, that the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) are disbanded—I believe a new Maidan uprising and a new civil war will ensue. Currently, Budanov is making bold, high-profile statements; yet, he remains largely in the shadows, avoiding any rash moves that might tarnish his reputation in the slightest. I am convinced that the West is actively grooming him to become the next President of Ukraine—specifically to fit the scenario outlined above.
Incidentally, the “Georgian Scenario”—to which J.P. Morgan assigns a 30% probability—is also a possibility; however, this would likely only occur if Europe proves unable to cope with the situation or if a major military collapse takes place on the front lines.
The Georgian Scenario. In the absence of both foreign troops and firm security guarantees, Ukraine will experience chronic instability, stunted growth and recovery, a gradual fading of foreign support, and the effective derailment of Western integration—specifically, membership in the EU and NATO. Over time, Kyiv could drift back into Russia’s orbit—politically, economically, and strategically—without a formal capitulation.
The remaining scenarios strike me as unlikely. The “Georgian scenario” is the one that best suits Russia and, in my view, is the most realistic.
I can’t see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia. I expect that any scenario where the war ends will result in Ukraine having a compliant regime and forced neutrality. It will not be allowed to join NATO or EU at this point, and there will be a big cap on the size of the army. So, I think the Georgian scenario is the most likely one as well.
The Kill Zone—it is constantly expanding. This has fundamentally altered the nature of warfare. Victory now belongs to whoever exercises superior control over the Kill Zone. In this context, defense is far easier, as infantry is rendered virtually obsolete.
To seize the strategic initiative, one must establish absolute dominance within the Kill Zone.
We are currently engaged in a war of technology—not a war of men or tanks. You have likely heard about the recent visit from an American entrepreneur who owns a company contracted by the Pentagon to develop and manufacture AI technologies for the defense industry. The Pentagon’s cutting-edge innovations are currently being field-tested in Ukraine. Russia is finding it difficult to keep pace.
And it is precisely this factor that will play the decisive role in the upcoming summer campaign.
I think we’ll have to wait and see here. American technology has proven itself to be hype many times in the past, and I wouldn’t jump to conclusions here.
It has begun—the very thing you and I discussed long ago… The thing I was banned for for 10 days—it has happened.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cx21rjge20po
Here is the move by Russia that could produce the intended effect.
If Russia was intentionally going to do an attack outside Ukraine they would do a bigger one, likely with Oreshnik and on a military target. I think two most likely possibilities here is either a stray drone or Ukraine using a scavenged one to try draw NATO in.
The situation here is somewhat more serious.
This company has secured a contract from the Pentagon to manufacture American-made Shahed-style drones equipped with AI. New models are being tested in Ukraine under combat conditions—something we are witnessing right now.
https://www.eadaily.com/ru/news/2026/05/27/iz-ssha-edut-na-ukrainu-kak-na-safari-ispytat-smertonosnye-tehnologii-na-rossii
Currently, Russia and the U.S. are essentially competing in technology. I believe that the U.S. holds the advantage in the use of AI.
Perhaps China, too, might want to test something of its own… ))
However, China has no desire to escalate tensions with the U.S., so it is highly unlikely to do so.
Right now, everyone is anticipating strikes on Kyiv. If this turns out to be yet another “final Chinese warning” from Russia, it will start looking a lot like Trump’s style. The Russians need to take action—but at this moment, I simply cannot imagine what that action could be that would actually take everyone by surprise. Putin currently finds himself in a difficult situation. The Europeans are becoming increasingly brazen; they have refused to evacuate their embassies from Kyiv, thereby demonstrating that they have absolutely no fear of Putin.
Ukraine’s strategy is clear, and they have staked everything on it: to destabilize Russia internally as much as possible—and as intensely as possible—before the Russian elections this autumn. Their objective is to hold the front lines against any major breakthroughs, while simultaneously inflicting maximum damage through strikes deep inside Russian territory.
What countermeasures Russia will be able to deploy against this—and whether it will be adequately prepared to do so—remains to be seen.
I honestly don’t think China cares what US thinks because they have Americans by the balls. The US economy cannot function without Chinese exports. Period. Did you see how Trump was behaving in China? That tells you everything. Not only will China be testing their AI for drones in Ukraine, they will also continue to cut off rare earths supply to the US which is what you need to make components for these drones.
And I expect there will be strikes coming. I also don’t understand Ukraine’s strategy. It’s important to remember that Putin is a moderate, and if he lost then it would almost certainly be somebody much more hard line, and then gloves will come off fully.