• ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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    9 days ago

    Yeah, shortages will likely start in a couple months, and then there’s going to be a spike in demand for fuel in fall when it’s planting season. And if farmers can’t afford the fuel to plant, there there could be a food crisis across Europe. It’s entirely possible Russia is waiting to see how bad the situation in Europe gets in the next couple of months before escalating.

    • Sedan@lemmy.ml
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      7 days ago

      One can surmise the plans Ukraine is currently formulating for the coming months.

      Disregarding casualties, the objective is to nullify all Russian offensive efforts while—in one specific sector (Zaporizhzhia)—breaching Russian defenses, again without regard for losses. We observe that, of late, systematic strikes are being launched against the logistical artery running from Russia southward toward the Zaporizhzhia region. That entire road is already littered with burnt-out military hardware, which is hampering supply lines to the Zaporizhzhia front.

      Furthermore, there is the systematic delivery of painful strikes deep within Russian territory.

      All of this is aimed at ratcheting up the domestic political tension in Russia—and public discontent regarding the war—by the time of the autumn parliamentary elections. Against the backdrop of current events, this is a very real possibility.

      No, Russia is not simply waiting; Russia has no time to spare. It needs to demonstrate tangible results and victories by autumn so that its people can at least understand why they are forced to endure daily Ukrainian drone attacks.

      At this moment, the outcomes of the summer campaign are of critical importance to Russia—real results. And the crisis in Europe, which is expected to unfold in a few months, cannot in any way alter the course of events.

      By piecing all the facts together, we can now understand the true significance of the “Spirit of Anchorage”—and exactly what Putin and Trump agreed upon there.

      The Ukrainians would be required to withdraw their troops from the Donbas and then sit down at the negotiating table, where issues such as the size of Ukraine’s armed forces, language policy, religious matters, and the like would be discussed.

      However, it seems to me that had Zelenskyy agreed to withdraw troops from the Donbas, he would not have survived long enough to reach the negotiating stage; he would have been ousted by disgruntled Ukrainians. The moment the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCK) are disbanded, the public will react aggressively; likewise, the AFU soldiers returning from the front lines would tear Zelenskyy apart. I have spoken with people who are fighting over there. They all hate Zelenskyy! Both the “Bucha-fied” troops and the regular ones—of whom not many remain. They will not forgive him for the “meat grinder” assaults. They are already expressing deep outrage over what is unfolding in the Zaporizhzhia sector. The Russians simply cannot fight in such a suicidal manner; that is why they are currently retreating there.

      Therefore, a withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donbas would amount to a death sentence for Zelenskyy. That is why Trump was unable to force Zelenskyy’s hand—and why Trump once again deceived Putin, having promised him that he would persuade Zelenskyy to do so. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has once again caught his stride; he looks remarkably energetic and has resumed hurling insults at Putin. And the “Mindich Tapes” are of no consequence to him; as far as he is concerned, everything is just fine.

      Putin has now vowed to launch systematic strikes against Kyiv, but I suspect this is merely a tactic to frighten the populace—assuming, that is, that these strikes unfold just as they have in the past. What is needed is a tangible result. Indiscriminate, ineffective strikes serve only to play into Zelenskyy’s hands, providing him with fodder for public relations campaigns in Europe.

      • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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        7 days ago

        Seems to me that it’s most likely Russia is going to ramp things up in the near future. And the focus will be on deep strikes on command centres and industry. Lavrov made it pretty clear that gloves are coming off. One big factor was that China didn’t really want escalation previously, but it looks like Americans managed to piss the Chinese off royally during their visit. Seems like after Russians went to China they agreed that Ukraine needs to get wrapped up, and that dialogue with Americans is impossible.

        A good discussion with a former CIA analyst on the whole thing https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xVVyS7NtB5k

          • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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            5 days ago

            I agree with Mearsheimer, the strike on Kiev doesn’t really mean anything at this point. There will have to be sustained escalation now.

        • Sedan@lemmy.ml
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          5 days ago

          Seems to me that it’s most likely Russia is going to ramp things up in the near future.

          Yes, without this, there won’t be any meaning at all…

          And the focus will be on deep strikes on command centres and industry. Lavrov made it pretty clear that gloves are coming off.

          As for industrial facilities—strikes against them will no longer make any serious impression.

          As for decision-making centers—that depends on how effective Russia’s intelligence capabilities are. Russia possesses nothing even remotely comparable to the intelligence assets held by the United States and Israel. I do not believe Russia is capable of executing strikes with such precision. During their recent “retaliatory strike” against Kyiv, they attempted to achieve something, but the result was nil—including in terms of intimidating the civilian population.

          Seems like after Russians went to China they agreed that Ukraine needs to get wrapped up, and that dialogue with Americans is impossible.

          I am skeptical about this. It seems to me that China will not risk a severe escalation with the United States. China will continue to play a waiting game.

          Meanwhile, in Russia—on state-run channels—everyone keeps talking about the “Spirit of Anchorage.” I was reading about it there again just yesterday.

          At this moment, the situation remains uncertain. The Russians have realized that Trump is unable to bring the war to an end. Now, everyone is waiting to see what further actions Russia will take.

          https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xVVyS7NtB5k

          As the saying goes: the only good CIA agent is a dead CIA agent… )))) However, I think he got his facts mixed up.

          In 1689, the Treaty of Nerchinsk was signed—the first agreement between Russia and China (the Qing Empire). The Russian Tsardom: It lost a significant portion of the Amur region as well as lands along the upper Amur River. Russia was forced to dismantle the fortress of Albazin and liquidate the Russian settlements located there; the border was established along the Argun and Gorbitsa rivers.

          For Russia, this was a humiliating outcome—not the other way around. The second guy was right: China was the one that suffered territorial losses under the Treaty of Aigun, during the reign of Alexander II.

          Comrade, I listened to his take on the conflict over Damansky Island, and it hit me… ))) It turns out that the Soviets were the ones planning to attack China.

          https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYHGeLyuH5O/

          Well, just think about it yourself: China lays claim to Soviet territory—territory that Nicholas II supposedly annexed illegally—yet, despite all this, the USSR is supposedly the one planning to attack China. Does that remind you of anything?.. ))))

          Back then, China had a idée fixe: to tear up the Treaties of Aigun and Peking.

          The Treaties of Aigun and Peking (1858 and 1860) were key interstate agreements between the Russian Empire and the Manchu Qing Empire. They secured vast territories in the Far East for Russia and established the modern border with China.

          At that time, China massed two divisions—15,000 troops—along its border with the USSR and was preparing to launch a major military operation.

          And don’t forget that just a year after the Damansky incident, the Chinese launched another attack—this time along the Kazakh border. Kazakhstan was not covered by the Treaty of Aigun. Kazakhstan has never belonged to China.

          You’ll notice once again that the moment the conversation turns to China, contradictions immediately crop up between us. On every single issue.

          People here keep telling me that I need to “think dialectically” in order to understand it all… ))) But I don’t understand a damn thing…

          I’ve known since childhood that it was China that wanted to attack—not the other way around. I remember that Brezhnev was deeply alarmed by the concentration of forces along the border, yet he issued orders not to succumb to provocations; consequently, the Chinese were met solely by border guards, who held the line against an overwhelming enemy force until the regular army could be brought up. These border guards were subsequently hailed as heroes throughout the USSR, though many of them perished.

          As for the current relations between Russia and China, I would very much like to see what he says come true…

          • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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            5 days ago

            Iran makes it pretty clear just how bad US/Israeli intelligence is. And the US is no longer in any position to do escalation in China because they shat the bed in Iran. They’re literally out of weapons at this point, and their economy is collapsing because of oil prices. Cost of filling up your car basically doubled now, and you can’t go anywhere without a car in the US. This is the biggest crisis since Vietnam.

            There is no other path for Russia or China today than what he says. Neither Chinese nor Russian leadership is stupid, and they can see that the only way they survive is by working together. And their economies are complimentary on top of that, they have nothing to fight about. Russia is a resource economy and China is a manufacturing one. It’s the exact same situation as the US and Canada.

            • Sedan@lemmy.ml
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              2 days ago

              You must remember this guy. He served on the Central Committee under Gorbachev but stepped down from his post in 1991 when he realized where things were heading. This is Ryzhkov.

              He had a remarkable life story. He rose from being a shop foreman at the Uralmash plant all the way to becoming the plant’s Director—it’s like something out of a fairytale… :) He hailed from the Donbas region, from a family of coal miners, and truly worked his way up from the very bottom.

              He has since passed away; this is one of his final interviews—you’ll see Spitsyn there as well. Incidentally, Spitsyn was a student of Yuri Nikolayevich Zhukov, whose books I’ve mentioned here before.

              If you’re interested in the Soviet economy of the 1980s, you might find this worth watching.

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Ryzhkov

            • Sedan@lemmy.ml
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              3 days ago

              Iran makes it pretty clear just how bad US/Israeli intelligence is. And the US is no longer in any position to do escalation in China because they shat the bed in Iran. They’re literally out of weapons at this point, and their economy is collapsing because of oil prices. Cost of filling up your car basically doubled now, and you can’t go anywhere without a car in the US. This is the biggest crisis since Vietnam.

              Do you think Trump will make a deal with Iran?

              I think Trump has no other choice.

              There is no other path for Russia or China today than what he says.

              China is also dependent on Russia—that’s undeniable. Putin recently visited Kazakhstan, where he agreed with the Kazakh president to increase energy supplies to China.

              The partnership will certainly develop, but moderately and cautiously, in the Chinese style.

              Russia is a resource economy and China is a manufacturing one.

              Yes, a major leap in industrialization is not expected in Russia yet. Russia’s industrial sector is not doing well.

              The oligarchs, who have been holding back industrial development in Russia since the 1990s, exert too much influence on the state. The oligarchs act like invaders, sucking resources out of the country and exploiting the Russian people. They instill false ideals in the people.

              There’s this oligarch named Malafeyev in Russia, a monarchist and religious obscurantist.

              https://www.bbc.com/russian/international/2015/02/150211_malofeyev_interview

              He financed that lousy film.

              And note that this film was blessed by some Elijah.

              https://youtu.be/NgZ1SUekJUc

              They want to remove Lenin’s mausoleum so they can put God there with the Tsar.

              This is an atavism.

              • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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                3 days ago

                Trump has no choice, but I don’t see how he can make a deal on Iran’s terms. It would be an incredible humiliation and Israel is fighting tooth and nail to prevent that. Given massive Israeli influence in the US, I expect any actual deal will be stopped in the end.

                And yeah, the problem Russia has is the fact that it’s a capitalist system which stands in the way of meaningful development. Since the masses need a shared narrative and world view that capitalism is unable to provide, religion is increasingly being slotted in to create national unity. This was unnecessary under the communist system which naturally united people.

                • Sedan@lemmy.ml
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                  2 days ago

                  Trump has no choice, but I don’t see how he can make a deal on Iran’s terms. It would be an incredible humiliation and Israel is fighting tooth and nail to prevent that. Given massive Israeli influence in the US, I expect any actual deal will be stopped in the end.

                  Yes, right now I find it hard to imagine how Trump intends to extricate himself from this situation. Trump faces a “tough decision”—either that, or he starts drinking vodka. The U.S. needs years to rebuild its military, not just weeks or months.

                  Currently, in a hasty scramble, they are field-testing their new technologies in Ukraine; however, I doubt the U.S. is capable of reorganizing its military as rapidly as Russia did at the start of the war. Then again, we shall see—perhaps Trump is a capable manager… (haha), even if he is currently neck-deep in shit. It seems to me that he won’t be able to wash himself clean of this—nothing can save him now; he is a lame duck.

                  And yeah, the problem Russia has is the fact that it’s a capitalist system which stands in the way of meaningful development.

                  Just recently, I was trying to understand the difference between shortages in a planned economy and shortages in a capitalist economy.

                  I came to only one conclusion: under capitalism, shortages are highly profitable for capitalists; they allow them to generate excess profits while maintaining the same—or even lower—levels of production. A shortage is simply a mechanism for extracting additional funds from the public.

                  This is the very same scheme that speculators employed during the Soviet era—a practice for which they faced prison sentences. Under capitalism, however, these same individuals are regarded as highly respected figures in the world of macroeconomics—people like Trump and Musk. They ought to be shipped off to the USSR so they could finally be judged according to their true deserts—specifically for the things they are doing right now.

                  Just take a look: Russia, too, has its own Ma… доморощенный.

                  https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/30/milliarder-deripaska-predlozhil-vvesti-12-chasovoi-rabochii-den-vklyuchaya-subbotu-chtobi-ponyat-ekonomiku-a191202

                  It’s all very simple and straightforward: you work harder, but you get paid the exact same amount. You’re working for the good of the Motherland… :))))

                  “The Motherland”—that’s actually Deripaska’s codename in certain circles… :))) Oh, how I miss Comrade Beria.

                  This was unnecessary under the communist system which naturally united people.

                  Stalin didn’t ban the Church, which implies that it was, after all, necessary—especially during times of hardship. It was mainly women who went there—women whose husbands were either at the front or had already perished. There, they found at least some measure of solace to keep from losing their minds during the war.

                  But Solzhenitsyn and his ilk decided that Stalin—the Antichrist—had repented and come to believe in God… )))) And they’ve been playing that same broken record for forty years now… The only thing missing from that story was Rasputin…

                  Just recently, a new Russian film aired on Russian TV channels… It’s the kind of thing that would make Dr. Lecter look like a nervous amateur. The story goes that when the Germans were at the gates of Moscow in '41, Stalin was in despair and didn’t know what to do; so, he decided to visit a vedunya—a blind old seer. The sorceress handed Stalin a wooden icon and said: “This icon must be flown around Moscow three times…” ))))) Stalin took the icon and entrusted it to the Soviet Union’s finest pilot. The pilot proceeded to circle Moscow repeatedly while under heavy fire from German anti-aircraft guns. By some miracle, he managed to fly around Moscow three times. And what do you think, comrade? The Germans immediately retreated from Moscow… )))) С Божьей помощью!

                  They’ve completely lost their minds over these icons!

                  https://youtu.be/Cz5uF6ms3Do

                  And this is the disgrace I am forced to witness right now. And just try saying anything against God…

                  • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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                    2 days ago

                    And agree capitalism is built on extraction, and every crisis creates opportunities for somebody. Especially true when that somebody is causing the crisis and they have inside information. Russell actually had a great essay on the whole extraction mechanic https://harpers.org/archive/1932/10/in-praise-of-idleness/

                    And yeah religion is being pushed in a very obvious way, although I recall seeing a survey last yeah I think where it showed that number of religious people is about the same as ever.