Agree with all that, the harvest season is going to be when the fuel demand spikes, and that’s also when the reserves are projected to be depleted. So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point. Yes, a bunch of stuff in Kiev is burning now, but it’s not really going to change anything. I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
If they’re saying this openly, I’m guessing the real situation is a lot worse then they’re letting on. We’ll see if they manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat to solve the fuel crisis, but I just don’t see where the fuel is going to come from. And Europe now competes with Asia for whatever fuel is on the market too. So, next few months will be very interesting.
I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
Google Translate doesn’t handle this format, but I got the gist of what it’s about.
So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point.
Yes, nobody is surprised by the Oreshnik anymore—the visual spectacle just doesn’t have the same shock value it used to. There was no palpable sense of terror. At the start of the war, things were much more intense in Kyiv; people were sleeping in the metro for weeks on end. That simply wasn’t the case this time.
It appears that, for the moment, Russia is not prepared to further escalate the conflict.
I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end.
Yeah, shortages will likely start in a couple months, and then there’s going to be a spike in demand for fuel in fall when it’s planting season. And if farmers can’t afford the fuel to plant, there there could be a food crisis across Europe. It’s entirely possible Russia is waiting to see how bad the situation in Europe gets in the next couple of months before escalating.
One can surmise the plans Ukraine is currently formulating for the coming months.
Disregarding casualties, the objective is to nullify all Russian offensive efforts while—in one specific sector (Zaporizhzhia)—breaching Russian defenses, again without regard for losses. We observe that, of late, systematic strikes are being launched against the logistical artery running from Russia southward toward the Zaporizhzhia region. That entire road is already littered with burnt-out military hardware, which is hampering supply lines to the Zaporizhzhia front.
Furthermore, there is the systematic delivery of painful strikes deep within Russian territory.
All of this is aimed at ratcheting up the domestic political tension in Russia—and public discontent regarding the war—by the time of the autumn parliamentary elections. Against the backdrop of current events, this is a very real possibility.
No, Russia is not simply waiting; Russia has no time to spare. It needs to demonstrate tangible results and victories by autumn so that its people can at least understand why they are forced to endure daily Ukrainian drone attacks.
At this moment, the outcomes of the summer campaign are of critical importance to Russia—real results. And the crisis in Europe, which is expected to unfold in a few months, cannot in any way alter the course of events.
By piecing all the facts together, we can now understand the true significance of the “Spirit of Anchorage”—and exactly what Putin and Trump agreed upon there.
The Ukrainians would be required to withdraw their troops from the Donbas and then sit down at the negotiating table, where issues such as the size of Ukraine’s armed forces, language policy, religious matters, and the like would be discussed.
However, it seems to me that had Zelenskyy agreed to withdraw troops from the Donbas, he would not have survived long enough to reach the negotiating stage; he would have been ousted by disgruntled Ukrainians. The moment the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCK) are disbanded, the public will react aggressively; likewise, the AFU soldiers returning from the front lines would tear Zelenskyy apart. I have spoken with people who are fighting over there. They all hate Zelenskyy! Both the “Bucha-fied” troops and the regular ones—of whom not many remain.
They will not forgive him for the “meat grinder” assaults. They are already expressing deep outrage over what is unfolding in the Zaporizhzhia sector. The Russians simply cannot fight in such a suicidal manner; that is why they are currently retreating there.
Therefore, a withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donbas would amount to a death sentence for Zelenskyy. That is why Trump was unable to force Zelenskyy’s hand—and why Trump once again deceived Putin, having promised him that he would persuade Zelenskyy to do so. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has once again caught his stride; he looks remarkably energetic and has resumed hurling insults at Putin. And the “Mindich Tapes” are of no consequence to him; as far as he is concerned, everything is just fine.
Putin has now vowed to launch systematic strikes against Kyiv, but I suspect this is merely a tactic to frighten the populace—assuming, that is, that these strikes unfold just as they have in the past. What is needed is a tangible result. Indiscriminate, ineffective strikes serve only to play into Zelenskyy’s hands, providing him with fodder for public relations campaigns in Europe.
Seems to me that it’s most likely Russia is going to ramp things up in the near future. And the focus will be on deep strikes on command centres and industry. Lavrov made it pretty clear that gloves are coming off. One big factor was that China didn’t really want escalation previously, but it looks like Americans managed to piss the Chinese off royally during their visit. Seems like after Russians went to China they agreed that Ukraine needs to get wrapped up, and that dialogue with Americans is impossible.
Seems to me that it’s most likely Russia is going to ramp things up in the near future.
Yes, without this, there won’t be any meaning at all…
And the focus will be on deep strikes on command centres and industry. Lavrov made it pretty clear that gloves are coming off.
As for industrial facilities—strikes against them will no longer make any serious impression.
As for decision-making centers—that depends on how effective Russia’s intelligence capabilities are. Russia possesses nothing even remotely comparable to the intelligence assets held by the United States and Israel. I do not believe Russia is capable of executing strikes with such precision. During their recent “retaliatory strike” against Kyiv, they attempted to achieve something, but the result was nil—including in terms of intimidating the civilian population.
Seems like after Russians went to China they agreed that Ukraine needs to get wrapped up, and that dialogue with Americans is impossible.
I am skeptical about this. It seems to me that China will not risk a severe escalation with the United States. China will continue to play a waiting game.
Meanwhile, in Russia—on state-run channels—everyone keeps talking about the “Spirit of Anchorage.” I was reading about it there again just yesterday.
At this moment, the situation remains uncertain. The Russians have realized that Trump is unable to bring the war to an end. Now, everyone is waiting to see what further actions Russia will take.
As the saying goes: the only good CIA agent is a dead CIA agent… )))) However, I think he got his facts mixed up.
In 1689, the Treaty of Nerchinsk was signed—the first agreement between Russia and China (the Qing Empire).
The Russian Tsardom: It lost a significant portion of the Amur region as well as lands along the upper Amur River. Russia was forced to dismantle the fortress of Albazin and liquidate the Russian settlements located there; the border was established along the Argun and Gorbitsa rivers.
For Russia, this was a humiliating outcome—not the other way around. The second guy was right: China was the one that suffered territorial losses under the Treaty of Aigun, during the reign of Alexander II.
Comrade, I listened to his take on the conflict over Damansky Island, and it hit me… ))) It turns out that the Soviets were the ones planning to attack China.
Well, just think about it yourself: China lays claim to Soviet territory—territory that Nicholas II supposedly annexed illegally—yet, despite all this, the USSR is supposedly the one planning to attack China. Does that remind you of anything?.. ))))
Back then, China had a idée fixe: to tear up the Treaties of Aigun and Peking.
The Treaties of Aigun and Peking (1858 and 1860) were key interstate agreements between the Russian Empire and the Manchu Qing Empire. They secured vast territories in the Far East for Russia and established the modern border with China.
At that time, China massed two divisions—15,000 troops—along its border with the USSR and was preparing to launch a major military operation.
And don’t forget that just a year after the Damansky incident, the Chinese launched another attack—this time along the Kazakh border. Kazakhstan was not covered by the Treaty of Aigun. Kazakhstan has never belonged to China.
You’ll notice once again that the moment the conversation turns to China, contradictions immediately crop up between us. On every single issue.
People here keep telling me that I need to “think dialectically” in order to understand it all… ))) But I don’t understand a damn thing…
I’ve known since childhood that it was China that wanted to attack—not the other way around. I remember that Brezhnev was deeply alarmed by the concentration of forces along the border, yet he issued orders not to succumb to provocations; consequently, the Chinese were met solely by border guards, who held the line against an overwhelming enemy force until the regular army could be brought up. These border guards were subsequently hailed as heroes throughout the USSR, though many of them perished.
As for the current relations between Russia and China, I would very much like to see what he says come true…
Iran makes it pretty clear just how bad US/Israeli intelligence is. And the US is no longer in any position to do escalation in China because they shat the bed in Iran. They’re literally out of weapons at this point, and their economy is collapsing because of oil prices. Cost of filling up your car basically doubled now, and you can’t go anywhere without a car in the US. This is the biggest crisis since Vietnam.
There is no other path for Russia or China today than what he says. Neither Chinese nor Russian leadership is stupid, and they can see that the only way they survive is by working together. And their economies are complimentary on top of that, they have nothing to fight about. Russia is a resource economy and China is a manufacturing one. It’s the exact same situation as the US and Canada.
You must remember this guy. He served on the Central Committee under Gorbachev but stepped down from his post in 1991 when he realized where things were heading. This is Ryzhkov.
He had a remarkable life story. He rose from being a shop foreman at the Uralmash plant all the way to becoming the plant’s Director—it’s like something out of a fairytale… :) He hailed from the Donbas region, from a family of coal miners, and truly worked his way up from the very bottom.
He has since passed away; this is one of his final interviews—you’ll see Spitsyn there as well. Incidentally, Spitsyn was a student of Yuri Nikolayevich Zhukov, whose books I’ve mentioned here before.
If you’re interested in the Soviet economy of the 1980s, you might find this worth watching.
Iran makes it pretty clear just how bad US/Israeli intelligence is. And the US is no longer in any position to do escalation in China because they shat the bed in Iran. They’re literally out of weapons at this point, and their economy is collapsing because of oil prices. Cost of filling up your car basically doubled now, and you can’t go anywhere without a car in the US. This is the biggest crisis since Vietnam.
Do you think Trump will make a deal with Iran?
I think Trump has no other choice.
There is no other path for Russia or China today than what he says.
China is also dependent on Russia—that’s undeniable. Putin recently visited Kazakhstan, where he agreed with the Kazakh president to increase energy supplies to China.
The partnership will certainly develop, but moderately and cautiously, in the Chinese style.
Russia is a resource economy and China is a manufacturing one.
Yes, a major leap in industrialization is not expected in Russia yet. Russia’s industrial sector is not doing well.
The oligarchs, who have been holding back industrial development in Russia since the 1990s, exert too much influence on the state. The oligarchs act like invaders, sucking resources out of the country and exploiting the Russian people. They instill false ideals in the people.
There’s this oligarch named Malafeyev in Russia, a monarchist and religious obscurantist.
Trump has no choice, but I don’t see how he can make a deal on Iran’s terms. It would be an incredible humiliation and Israel is fighting tooth and nail to prevent that. Given massive Israeli influence in the US, I expect any actual deal will be stopped in the end.
And yeah, the problem Russia has is the fact that it’s a capitalist system which stands in the way of meaningful development. Since the masses need a shared narrative and world view that capitalism is unable to provide, religion is increasingly being slotted in to create national unity. This was unnecessary under the communist system which naturally united people.
Agree with all that, the harvest season is going to be when the fuel demand spikes, and that’s also when the reserves are projected to be depleted. So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point. Yes, a bunch of stuff in Kiev is burning now, but it’s not really going to change anything. I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
If they’re saying this openly, I’m guessing the real situation is a lot worse then they’re letting on. We’ll see if they manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat to solve the fuel crisis, but I just don’t see where the fuel is going to come from. And Europe now competes with Asia for whatever fuel is on the market too. So, next few months will be very interesting.
It turns out I guessed correctly: farmers will be the first to suffer—specifically when the harvest begins.
In two months, we will realize just how serious the crisis in Europe really is.
Google Translate doesn’t handle this format, but I got the gist of what it’s about.
Yes, nobody is surprised by the Oreshnik anymore—the visual spectacle just doesn’t have the same shock value it used to. There was no palpable sense of terror. At the start of the war, things were much more intense in Kyiv; people were sleeping in the metro for weeks on end. That simply wasn’t the case this time.
It appears that, for the moment, Russia is not prepared to further escalate the conflict.
Надежда умирает последней!)))
Yeah, shortages will likely start in a couple months, and then there’s going to be a spike in demand for fuel in fall when it’s planting season. And if farmers can’t afford the fuel to plant, there there could be a food crisis across Europe. It’s entirely possible Russia is waiting to see how bad the situation in Europe gets in the next couple of months before escalating.
One can surmise the plans Ukraine is currently formulating for the coming months.
Disregarding casualties, the objective is to nullify all Russian offensive efforts while—in one specific sector (Zaporizhzhia)—breaching Russian defenses, again without regard for losses. We observe that, of late, systematic strikes are being launched against the logistical artery running from Russia southward toward the Zaporizhzhia region. That entire road is already littered with burnt-out military hardware, which is hampering supply lines to the Zaporizhzhia front.
Furthermore, there is the systematic delivery of painful strikes deep within Russian territory.
All of this is aimed at ratcheting up the domestic political tension in Russia—and public discontent regarding the war—by the time of the autumn parliamentary elections. Against the backdrop of current events, this is a very real possibility.
No, Russia is not simply waiting; Russia has no time to spare. It needs to demonstrate tangible results and victories by autumn so that its people can at least understand why they are forced to endure daily Ukrainian drone attacks.
At this moment, the outcomes of the summer campaign are of critical importance to Russia—real results. And the crisis in Europe, which is expected to unfold in a few months, cannot in any way alter the course of events.
By piecing all the facts together, we can now understand the true significance of the “Spirit of Anchorage”—and exactly what Putin and Trump agreed upon there.
The Ukrainians would be required to withdraw their troops from the Donbas and then sit down at the negotiating table, where issues such as the size of Ukraine’s armed forces, language policy, religious matters, and the like would be discussed.
However, it seems to me that had Zelenskyy agreed to withdraw troops from the Donbas, he would not have survived long enough to reach the negotiating stage; he would have been ousted by disgruntled Ukrainians. The moment the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCK) are disbanded, the public will react aggressively; likewise, the AFU soldiers returning from the front lines would tear Zelenskyy apart. I have spoken with people who are fighting over there. They all hate Zelenskyy! Both the “Bucha-fied” troops and the regular ones—of whom not many remain. They will not forgive him for the “meat grinder” assaults. They are already expressing deep outrage over what is unfolding in the Zaporizhzhia sector. The Russians simply cannot fight in such a suicidal manner; that is why they are currently retreating there.
Therefore, a withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donbas would amount to a death sentence for Zelenskyy. That is why Trump was unable to force Zelenskyy’s hand—and why Trump once again deceived Putin, having promised him that he would persuade Zelenskyy to do so. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has once again caught his stride; he looks remarkably energetic and has resumed hurling insults at Putin. And the “Mindich Tapes” are of no consequence to him; as far as he is concerned, everything is just fine.
Putin has now vowed to launch systematic strikes against Kyiv, but I suspect this is merely a tactic to frighten the populace—assuming, that is, that these strikes unfold just as they have in the past. What is needed is a tangible result. Indiscriminate, ineffective strikes serve only to play into Zelenskyy’s hands, providing him with fodder for public relations campaigns in Europe.
Seems to me that it’s most likely Russia is going to ramp things up in the near future. And the focus will be on deep strikes on command centres and industry. Lavrov made it pretty clear that gloves are coming off. One big factor was that China didn’t really want escalation previously, but it looks like Americans managed to piss the Chinese off royally during their visit. Seems like after Russians went to China they agreed that Ukraine needs to get wrapped up, and that dialogue with Americans is impossible.
A good discussion with a former CIA analyst on the whole thing https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xVVyS7NtB5k
I spoke about this earlier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApNTsQZKiyc
I agree with Mearsheimer, the strike on Kiev doesn’t really mean anything at this point. There will have to be sustained escalation now.
Yes, without this, there won’t be any meaning at all…
As for industrial facilities—strikes against them will no longer make any serious impression.
As for decision-making centers—that depends on how effective Russia’s intelligence capabilities are. Russia possesses nothing even remotely comparable to the intelligence assets held by the United States and Israel. I do not believe Russia is capable of executing strikes with such precision. During their recent “retaliatory strike” against Kyiv, they attempted to achieve something, but the result was nil—including in terms of intimidating the civilian population.
I am skeptical about this. It seems to me that China will not risk a severe escalation with the United States. China will continue to play a waiting game.
Meanwhile, in Russia—on state-run channels—everyone keeps talking about the “Spirit of Anchorage.” I was reading about it there again just yesterday.
At this moment, the situation remains uncertain. The Russians have realized that Trump is unable to bring the war to an end. Now, everyone is waiting to see what further actions Russia will take.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xVVyS7NtB5k
As the saying goes: the only good CIA agent is a dead CIA agent… )))) However, I think he got his facts mixed up.
In 1689, the Treaty of Nerchinsk was signed—the first agreement between Russia and China (the Qing Empire). The Russian Tsardom: It lost a significant portion of the Amur region as well as lands along the upper Amur River. Russia was forced to dismantle the fortress of Albazin and liquidate the Russian settlements located there; the border was established along the Argun and Gorbitsa rivers.
For Russia, this was a humiliating outcome—not the other way around. The second guy was right: China was the one that suffered territorial losses under the Treaty of Aigun, during the reign of Alexander II.
Comrade, I listened to his take on the conflict over Damansky Island, and it hit me… ))) It turns out that the Soviets were the ones planning to attack China.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYHGeLyuH5O/
Well, just think about it yourself: China lays claim to Soviet territory—territory that Nicholas II supposedly annexed illegally—yet, despite all this, the USSR is supposedly the one planning to attack China. Does that remind you of anything?.. ))))
Back then, China had a idée fixe: to tear up the Treaties of Aigun and Peking.
The Treaties of Aigun and Peking (1858 and 1860) were key interstate agreements between the Russian Empire and the Manchu Qing Empire. They secured vast territories in the Far East for Russia and established the modern border with China.
At that time, China massed two divisions—15,000 troops—along its border with the USSR and was preparing to launch a major military operation.
And don’t forget that just a year after the Damansky incident, the Chinese launched another attack—this time along the Kazakh border. Kazakhstan was not covered by the Treaty of Aigun. Kazakhstan has never belonged to China.
You’ll notice once again that the moment the conversation turns to China, contradictions immediately crop up between us. On every single issue.
People here keep telling me that I need to “think dialectically” in order to understand it all… ))) But I don’t understand a damn thing…
I’ve known since childhood that it was China that wanted to attack—not the other way around. I remember that Brezhnev was deeply alarmed by the concentration of forces along the border, yet he issued orders not to succumb to provocations; consequently, the Chinese were met solely by border guards, who held the line against an overwhelming enemy force until the regular army could be brought up. These border guards were subsequently hailed as heroes throughout the USSR, though many of them perished.
As for the current relations between Russia and China, I would very much like to see what he says come true…
Iran makes it pretty clear just how bad US/Israeli intelligence is. And the US is no longer in any position to do escalation in China because they shat the bed in Iran. They’re literally out of weapons at this point, and their economy is collapsing because of oil prices. Cost of filling up your car basically doubled now, and you can’t go anywhere without a car in the US. This is the biggest crisis since Vietnam.
There is no other path for Russia or China today than what he says. Neither Chinese nor Russian leadership is stupid, and they can see that the only way they survive is by working together. And their economies are complimentary on top of that, they have nothing to fight about. Russia is a resource economy and China is a manufacturing one. It’s the exact same situation as the US and Canada.
You must remember this guy. He served on the Central Committee under Gorbachev but stepped down from his post in 1991 when he realized where things were heading. This is Ryzhkov.
He had a remarkable life story. He rose from being a shop foreman at the Uralmash plant all the way to becoming the plant’s Director—it’s like something out of a fairytale… :) He hailed from the Donbas region, from a family of coal miners, and truly worked his way up from the very bottom.
He has since passed away; this is one of his final interviews—you’ll see Spitsyn there as well. Incidentally, Spitsyn was a student of Yuri Nikolayevich Zhukov, whose books I’ve mentioned here before.
If you’re interested in the Soviet economy of the 1980s, you might find this worth watching.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Ryzhkov
Do you think Trump will make a deal with Iran?
I think Trump has no other choice.
China is also dependent on Russia—that’s undeniable. Putin recently visited Kazakhstan, where he agreed with the Kazakh president to increase energy supplies to China.
The partnership will certainly develop, but moderately and cautiously, in the Chinese style.
Yes, a major leap in industrialization is not expected in Russia yet. Russia’s industrial sector is not doing well.
The oligarchs, who have been holding back industrial development in Russia since the 1990s, exert too much influence on the state. The oligarchs act like invaders, sucking resources out of the country and exploiting the Russian people. They instill false ideals in the people.
There’s this oligarch named Malafeyev in Russia, a monarchist and religious obscurantist.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/international/2015/02/150211_malofeyev_interview
He financed that lousy film.
And note that this film was blessed by some Elijah.
https://youtu.be/NgZ1SUekJUc
They want to remove Lenin’s mausoleum so they can put God there with the Tsar.
This is an atavism.
Trump has no choice, but I don’t see how he can make a deal on Iran’s terms. It would be an incredible humiliation and Israel is fighting tooth and nail to prevent that. Given massive Israeli influence in the US, I expect any actual deal will be stopped in the end.
And yeah, the problem Russia has is the fact that it’s a capitalist system which stands in the way of meaningful development. Since the masses need a shared narrative and world view that capitalism is unable to provide, religion is increasingly being slotted in to create national unity. This was unnecessary under the communist system which naturally united people.