Damn it—I was in the middle of writing you a really long reply when the power went out and my computer shut down. I switched over to my backup power supply, but drafts don’t save on this setup… Argh.
Let’s talk tomorrow, Comrade! I’ll say just one thing: I first found out about the massive shelling from the news this morning. It was relatively quiet on our end last night.
I also wanted to discuss the JPMorgan forecast with you, as well as the potential scenarios for how the war in Ukraine might end.
Oh that sucks about the power, and I saw their report. We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me. I do think it’s an indication that they see the gig is up now. Another sign is that Europe is now scrambling to find a negotiator, definitely not a thing they’d be doing if they genuinely thought they were winning.
We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me.
This reveals the plans Europe is currently formulating.
It shows the terms they are willing to accept. A new, optimal scenario for the end of the war has emerged.
50% — 3. The Base Scenario: “Finlandization” Prior to NATO Membership (The New Scenario)
Under this scenario, Ukraine cedes a portion of its territory but retains its sovereignty and strategic orientation. It rebuilds its military, invests in its industrial base, and gradually integrates into Europe—both economically and politically. Formal NATO membership remains out of reach in the near term, and Kyiv may be compelled to exercise a certain degree of strategic restraint so as not to provoke Moscow. However, over time, Ukraine builds up its own deterrence capabilities and deepens its Western alignment—ultimately joining the EU and, potentially, NATO in the long run.
Provided that the European economy does not collapse this year, I view this scenario as plausible. However, this scenario fails to account for the domestic political climate within Ukraine, as well as the potential for internal social conflict. One must consider the system itself—founded on corruption and graft—along with the hundreds of thousands of soldiers returning from the front, and the staggering quantity of weaponry that will inevitably remain in private hands. Once the war concludes—and assuming, as I foresee, that the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) are disbanded—I believe a new Maidan uprising and a new civil war will ensue. Currently, Budanov is making bold, high-profile statements; yet, he remains largely in the shadows, avoiding any rash moves that might tarnish his reputation in the slightest. I am convinced that the West is actively grooming him to become the next President of Ukraine—specifically to fit the scenario outlined above.
Incidentally, the “Georgian Scenario”—to which J.P. Morgan assigns a 30% probability—is also a possibility; however, this would likely only occur if Europe proves unable to cope with the situation or if a major military collapse takes place on the front lines.
The Georgian Scenario. In the absence of both foreign troops and firm security guarantees, Ukraine will experience chronic instability, stunted growth and recovery, a gradual fading of foreign support, and the effective derailment of Western integration—specifically, membership in the EU and NATO. Over time, Kyiv could drift back into Russia’s orbit—politically, economically, and strategically—without a formal capitulation.
The remaining scenarios strike me as unlikely. The “Georgian scenario” is the one that best suits Russia and, in my view, is the most realistic.
I can’t see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia. I expect that any scenario where the war ends will result in Ukraine having a compliant regime and forced neutrality. It will not be allowed to join NATO or EU at this point, and there will be a big cap on the size of the army. So, I think the Georgian scenario is the most likely one as well.
I can’t see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia.
The Kill Zone—it is constantly expanding. This has fundamentally altered the nature of warfare. Victory now belongs to whoever exercises superior control over the Kill Zone. In this context, defense is far easier, as infantry is rendered virtually obsolete.
To seize the strategic initiative, one must establish absolute dominance within the Kill Zone.
We are currently engaged in a war of technology—not a war of men or tanks. You have likely heard about the recent visit from an American entrepreneur who owns a company contracted by the Pentagon to develop and manufacture AI technologies for the defense industry. The Pentagon’s cutting-edge innovations are currently being field-tested in Ukraine. Russia is finding it difficult to keep pace.
And it is precisely this factor that will play the decisive role in the upcoming summer campaign.
I think we’ll have to wait and see here. American technology has proven itself to be hype many times in the past, and I wouldn’t jump to conclusions here.
If Russia was intentionally going to do an attack outside Ukraine they would do a bigger one, likely with Oreshnik and on a military target. I think two most likely possibilities here is either a stray drone or Ukraine using a scavenged one to try draw NATO in.
Yes, it was probably Ukrainian electronic warfare that deflected the Russian drone, or it was a Ukrainian provocation to draw NATO into the war. Ukraine is also provoking Belarus to join the war. This is all part of Zelenskyy’s strategy.
What you and I predicted has begun: a frenzied wave of propaganda has recently erupted in the Ukrainian media. Every morning I open the news and it’s filled with headlines like: Russia has almost lost Crimea, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have broken through at the front, Russia is panicking, Putin is almost dead, etc. I haven’t seen such a wave in a long time. People are talking about the 1991 borders again.
It’s been suspiciously quiet here lately. Not even the sirens are wailing.
Kyiv has finally been affected. People are heading down to the metro at night. Everyone’s waiting for that blow.
By the way, look, this is Yakutsk, where socialism still reigns… )))
This company has secured a contract from the Pentagon to manufacture American-made Shahed-style drones equipped with AI. New models are being tested in Ukraine under combat conditions—something we are witnessing right now.
Currently, Russia and the U.S. are essentially competing in technology. I believe that the U.S. holds the advantage in the use of AI.
Perhaps China, too, might want to test something of its own… ))
However, China has no desire to escalate tensions with the U.S., so it is highly unlikely to do so.
Right now, everyone is anticipating strikes on Kyiv. If this turns out to be yet another “final Chinese warning” from Russia, it will start looking a lot like Trump’s style. The Russians need to take action—but at this moment, I simply cannot imagine what that action could be that would actually take everyone by surprise. Putin currently finds himself in a difficult situation. The Europeans are becoming increasingly brazen; they have refused to evacuate their embassies from Kyiv, thereby demonstrating that they have absolutely no fear of Putin.
Ukraine’s strategy is clear, and they have staked everything on it: to destabilize Russia internally as much as possible—and as intensely as possible—before the Russian elections this autumn. Their objective is to hold the front lines against any major breakthroughs, while simultaneously inflicting maximum damage through strikes deep inside Russian territory.
What countermeasures Russia will be able to deploy against this—and whether it will be adequately prepared to do so—remains to be seen.
I honestly don’t think China cares what US thinks because they have Americans by the balls. The US economy cannot function without Chinese exports. Period. Did you see how Trump was behaving in China? That tells you everything. Not only will China be testing their AI for drones in Ukraine, they will also continue to cut off rare earths supply to the US which is what you need to make components for these drones.
And I expect there will be strikes coming. I also don’t understand Ukraine’s strategy. It’s important to remember that Putin is a moderate, and if he lost then it would almost certainly be somebody much more hard line, and then gloves will come off fully.
Damn it—I was in the middle of writing you a really long reply when the power went out and my computer shut down. I switched over to my backup power supply, but drafts don’t save on this setup… Argh.
Let’s talk tomorrow, Comrade! I’ll say just one thing: I first found out about the massive shelling from the news this morning. It was relatively quiet on our end last night.
I also wanted to discuss the JPMorgan forecast with you, as well as the potential scenarios for how the war in Ukraine might end.
https://logos-pres.md/en/news/jpmorgan-chase-analysts-predict-a-finnish-scenario-for-ukraine/
Oh that sucks about the power, and I saw their report. We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me. I do think it’s an indication that they see the gig is up now. Another sign is that Europe is now scrambling to find a negotiator, definitely not a thing they’d be doing if they genuinely thought they were winning.
This reveals the plans Europe is currently formulating.
It shows the terms they are willing to accept. A new, optimal scenario for the end of the war has emerged.
50% — 3. The Base Scenario: “Finlandization” Prior to NATO Membership (The New Scenario)
Under this scenario, Ukraine cedes a portion of its territory but retains its sovereignty and strategic orientation. It rebuilds its military, invests in its industrial base, and gradually integrates into Europe—both economically and politically. Formal NATO membership remains out of reach in the near term, and Kyiv may be compelled to exercise a certain degree of strategic restraint so as not to provoke Moscow. However, over time, Ukraine builds up its own deterrence capabilities and deepens its Western alignment—ultimately joining the EU and, potentially, NATO in the long run.
Provided that the European economy does not collapse this year, I view this scenario as plausible. However, this scenario fails to account for the domestic political climate within Ukraine, as well as the potential for internal social conflict. One must consider the system itself—founded on corruption and graft—along with the hundreds of thousands of soldiers returning from the front, and the staggering quantity of weaponry that will inevitably remain in private hands. Once the war concludes—and assuming, as I foresee, that the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) are disbanded—I believe a new Maidan uprising and a new civil war will ensue. Currently, Budanov is making bold, high-profile statements; yet, he remains largely in the shadows, avoiding any rash moves that might tarnish his reputation in the slightest. I am convinced that the West is actively grooming him to become the next President of Ukraine—specifically to fit the scenario outlined above.
Incidentally, the “Georgian Scenario”—to which J.P. Morgan assigns a 30% probability—is also a possibility; however, this would likely only occur if Europe proves unable to cope with the situation or if a major military collapse takes place on the front lines.
The Georgian Scenario. In the absence of both foreign troops and firm security guarantees, Ukraine will experience chronic instability, stunted growth and recovery, a gradual fading of foreign support, and the effective derailment of Western integration—specifically, membership in the EU and NATO. Over time, Kyiv could drift back into Russia’s orbit—politically, economically, and strategically—without a formal capitulation.
The remaining scenarios strike me as unlikely. The “Georgian scenario” is the one that best suits Russia and, in my view, is the most realistic.
I can’t see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia. I expect that any scenario where the war ends will result in Ukraine having a compliant regime and forced neutrality. It will not be allowed to join NATO or EU at this point, and there will be a big cap on the size of the army. So, I think the Georgian scenario is the most likely one as well.
The Kill Zone—it is constantly expanding. This has fundamentally altered the nature of warfare. Victory now belongs to whoever exercises superior control over the Kill Zone. In this context, defense is far easier, as infantry is rendered virtually obsolete.
To seize the strategic initiative, one must establish absolute dominance within the Kill Zone.
We are currently engaged in a war of technology—not a war of men or tanks. You have likely heard about the recent visit from an American entrepreneur who owns a company contracted by the Pentagon to develop and manufacture AI technologies for the defense industry. The Pentagon’s cutting-edge innovations are currently being field-tested in Ukraine. Russia is finding it difficult to keep pace.
And it is precisely this factor that will play the decisive role in the upcoming summer campaign.
I think we’ll have to wait and see here. American technology has proven itself to be hype many times in the past, and I wouldn’t jump to conclusions here.
It has begun—the very thing you and I discussed long ago… The thing I was banned for for 10 days—it has happened.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cx21rjge20po
Here is the move by Russia that could produce the intended effect.
If Russia was intentionally going to do an attack outside Ukraine they would do a bigger one, likely with Oreshnik and on a military target. I think two most likely possibilities here is either a stray drone or Ukraine using a scavenged one to try draw NATO in.
Yes, I agree with you. I was just emotional… )))
Yes, it was probably Ukrainian electronic warfare that deflected the Russian drone, or it was a Ukrainian provocation to draw NATO into the war. Ukraine is also provoking Belarus to join the war. This is all part of Zelenskyy’s strategy.
What you and I predicted has begun: a frenzied wave of propaganda has recently erupted in the Ukrainian media. Every morning I open the news and it’s filled with headlines like: Russia has almost lost Crimea, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have broken through at the front, Russia is panicking, Putin is almost dead, etc. I haven’t seen such a wave in a long time. People are talking about the 1991 borders again.
It’s been suspiciously quiet here lately. Not even the sirens are wailing.
Kyiv has finally been affected. People are heading down to the metro at night. Everyone’s waiting for that blow.
By the way, look, this is Yakutsk, where socialism still reigns… )))
It’s as if time stood still there.
https://youtu.be/1V2Y_6c58Oc?t=130
The situation here is somewhat more serious.
This company has secured a contract from the Pentagon to manufacture American-made Shahed-style drones equipped with AI. New models are being tested in Ukraine under combat conditions—something we are witnessing right now.
https://www.eadaily.com/ru/news/2026/05/27/iz-ssha-edut-na-ukrainu-kak-na-safari-ispytat-smertonosnye-tehnologii-na-rossii
Currently, Russia and the U.S. are essentially competing in technology. I believe that the U.S. holds the advantage in the use of AI.
Perhaps China, too, might want to test something of its own… ))
However, China has no desire to escalate tensions with the U.S., so it is highly unlikely to do so.
Right now, everyone is anticipating strikes on Kyiv. If this turns out to be yet another “final Chinese warning” from Russia, it will start looking a lot like Trump’s style. The Russians need to take action—but at this moment, I simply cannot imagine what that action could be that would actually take everyone by surprise. Putin currently finds himself in a difficult situation. The Europeans are becoming increasingly brazen; they have refused to evacuate their embassies from Kyiv, thereby demonstrating that they have absolutely no fear of Putin.
Ukraine’s strategy is clear, and they have staked everything on it: to destabilize Russia internally as much as possible—and as intensely as possible—before the Russian elections this autumn. Their objective is to hold the front lines against any major breakthroughs, while simultaneously inflicting maximum damage through strikes deep inside Russian territory.
What countermeasures Russia will be able to deploy against this—and whether it will be adequately prepared to do so—remains to be seen.
I honestly don’t think China cares what US thinks because they have Americans by the balls. The US economy cannot function without Chinese exports. Period. Did you see how Trump was behaving in China? That tells you everything. Not only will China be testing their AI for drones in Ukraine, they will also continue to cut off rare earths supply to the US which is what you need to make components for these drones.
And I expect there will be strikes coming. I also don’t understand Ukraine’s strategy. It’s important to remember that Putin is a moderate, and if he lost then it would almost certainly be somebody much more hard line, and then gloves will come off fully.
We talked a long time ago about bridges across the Dnieper. Something like this should probably exist.