The media won’t give me great answers to this question and I think this I trust this community more, thus I want to know from you. Also, I have heard reports that Russia was winning the war, if that’s true, did the west miscalculate the situation by allowing diplomacy to take a backseat and allowing Ukraine to a large plethora of military resources?

PS: I realize there are many casualties on both sides and I am not trying to downplay the suffering, but I am curious as to how it is going for Ukraine. Right now I am hearing ever louder calls of Russia winning, those have existed forever, but they seem to have grown louder now, so I was wondering what you thought about it. Also, I am somewhat concerned of allowing a dictatorship to just erase at it’s convenience a free and democratic country.

    • IninewCrow
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      111 year ago

      The Military Industrial complex … which has no allegiance to any nation and controls more money than most nations in the planet.

      Even the US is beholden to it’s power … one of the best descriptions of America is that I’ve ever read was …

      The US isn’t a nation … it’s a corporation with a military.

    • Krause [he/him]
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      1 year ago

      to fully take over Ukraine

      This was never Russia’s goal, you can’t quote a single Russian official stating that this was the objective of the SMO.

      Ukraine’s goal was to stop Russia from wiping them off of the map

      No, Ukraine’s goal was to “liberate” Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea and return to their 1991 borders.

      https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/ukraine-will-liberate-crimea-by-military-means-danilov/

      https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-fight-until-last-liberated-005810749.html

      https://tvpworld.com/74421963/ukraine-is-fighting-to-restore-its-1991-borders-fm

      They’ve failed and will never reach this goal.

      So I may sound like a doomer, but it’s not looking good for the good guys

      It is, you’re just not on the side of the good guys : )

      • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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        31 year ago

        Pretty funny how you can provide an explanation backed by references and then get mass downvotes because libs still have problems engaging with reality after a year and a half of being wrong about absolutely everything.

      • gullible
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        -121 year ago

        I wish I didn’t have to individually block lemmygrad accounts- it’s my only issue with kbin.social. Still love you, Ernest.

          • gullible
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            -161 year ago

            I’m positive that this comment will help me find more users who stray from your echo chamber. Keep ‘em coming.

            • @MeowZedong@lemmygrad.ml
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              121 year ago

              The people straying from the “echo chamber” aren’t the ones blocking others for dissent. Sounds like you’re projecting.

              • gullible
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                -141 year ago

                I’m open to new political opinions, just not regressing through yours.

                • @MeowZedong@lemmygrad.ml
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                  81 year ago

                  I completely understand blocking or ignoring those who engage you in bad faith, but when someone disagrees with you and also engages in a discussion in good faith, you are merely silencing voices of dissent by blocking them.

                  How is that approach not creating an echo chamber? It seems hypocritical to label spaces that welcome good faith discourse “echo chambers” while creating your own.

    • @ksynwa@lemmy.ml
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      -211 year ago

      The invading Russian forces have basically failed their first goal; to fully take over Ukraine.

      Has Russia ever stated that this was their goal?

      • @AndrasKrigare@beehaw.org
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        61 year ago

        Considering Russia denied their intent to invade as they were conducting it, I don’t know that their statements should be considered truth regarding their plans and goals. But here’s Westpoint’s take on the matter:

        Initially, the Russian regime may have regarded its invasion of Ukraine as a “regional conflict” with “important” military-political goals, and its classification as a “special military operation” may have been genuine. Indeed, it seems that the Kremlin’s ambitious political objective was to install a new, pro-Russian government in Kyiv by lightning action.

        https://mwi.westpoint.edu/what-is-russias-theory-of-victory-in-ukraine.

        • @ksynwa@lemmy.ml
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          21 year ago

          You are unironically sharing a quote riddled with "may"s and "seem"s from United States Military Academy

          • @AndrasKrigare@beehaw.org
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            11 year ago

            And you are making a statement that seems to suggest absolute knowledge of a country’s intentions are possible with a leader with a lack of credibility and long history of lying on the world stage.

            Gee, this is fun. Or were you making some point? Were you expecting some report about their magic mind-reading device?

            • @ksynwa@lemmy.ml
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              1 year ago

              Were you expecting some report about their magic mind-reading device?

              But this is what you have been doing all along. Nothing in reality suggests that total annexation of Ukraine was the goal. Not the words of anyone nor the manner in which Russia has executed the invasion yet here you are somehow reading minds to conjure grand motives and subjecting me to smug Reddittor-speak for the crime of asking you to back your frivolous claims. “Gee, this is fun.” Jesus Christ.

              • @AndrasKrigare@beehaw.org
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                -11 year ago

                Nothing in reality suggests that total annexation of Ukraine was the goal

                Wait, I’m confused, were you looking for “is” or “suggests?” Because I sent you an article all about “suggests.” And, follow-up question, did you think ‘You are unironically sharing a quote riddled with "may"s and "seem"s from United States Military Academy’ is not smug and was a genuinely civil question?

                Since it seems you might not be great at this whole “communicating” thing, I’ll be explicit: Yes, those questions were rhetorical. No, you’ve given me nothing to suggest I should care what your response is.

                • @ksynwa@lemmy.ml
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                  11 year ago

                  Gee, this is fun. Reality is not wishy washy statements from literal America military institutions. It just exposes you as someone who gobbles American state department nonsense wholesale uncritically. If you watched your Rick and Morty properly you would have known that it is not a smart thing to do. Reality in this case refers to what’s happening on the ground in the war. Like Russia holding it’s annexed territories rather trying to expand indiscriminately.

                  No, you’ve given me nothing to suggest I should care what your response is.

                  You are an idiot.

    • @grue@lemmy.world
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      221 year ago

      This invasion was taken differently than any previous invasion because it upset global stability.

      I think the fact that Kyiv didn’t fall within hours like everybody thought it would, and the morale/inspiration/call to action effect of “I need ammunition, not a ride,” shouldn’t be taken lightly either.

      • @TheMechanic@lemmy.ca
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        71 year ago

        I agree. Ukraine did a great job in preparing for an inevitable invasion. Zelensky is the reason the preparations succeeded.

    • @ksynwa@lemmy.ml
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      111 year ago

      Culturally Russia sees itself as outside the rest of the world. At the very minimum, an equal to historical empires of Europe or Asia, but part of neither. It sees the USA as an ethnic mongrel with no culture or history, and hates the US power it projects globally.

      I was wondering if you could provide something to back this up since these are rather sweeping claims.

      The only thing I can think of that comes close is Dugin’s writings but I have never seen anything that could suggest that his ideas are widely accepted or adopted as the state’s doctrines.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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      31 year ago

      Putin did expect the invasion to be fast and achieve their goals quickly. It was a mistake on his behalf.

      Except that now we have Ukrainian chief negotiator having come out and openly admitted that Russia and Ukraine were on a verge of making a deal back in last March before Boris Johnson sabotaged it. The only reason this was is still going on is because the west couldn’t accept peace and decided to cynically push Ukraine into further conflict.

      The result was many countries around the world pledging military support.

      What actually happened was that NATO countries wanted to break and balkanize Russia, which was openly said by lots of western officials. The west made a mistake thinking that they could easily break Russian economy using sanctions while using Ukraine as a proxy without having to put NATO boots on the ground. Now we’re seeing this massively backfire with western economies going into a recession while Russian economy is now growing.

      Western powers could arm Ukraine and it would win.

      They literally can’t, and even NATO officials now admit that the west lacks industrial capacity to keep up with Russia even in basic things such as shell production.

      They have had no problem spending trillions of dollars over decades to protect their influence.

      This is not a problem that can be fixed by throwing money at it. This requires building factories, training workers, creating supply chains and so on. These things simply can’t be done overnight. All throwing money at the problem does is raise prices as anybody with even a modicum of economic knowledge could’ve predicted

      In October, NATO’s senior military officer, Adm. Rob Bauer, said that the price for one 155mm shell had risen from 2,000 euros ($2,171) at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion to 8,000 euros ($8,489.60).

      Putin does not care how many troops he loses. Russia doesn’t really care how many people it loses unless those people are from the cities. Russian culture dehumanises the poor and mixed ethnicities.

      How to say you’re a racist without saying you’re a racist.

      The hope would be that world leaders realise before it’s too late that the only way Ukraine can win, is that if Russia loses.

      There was never any scenario in which Ukraine could win and it’s absolutely incredible that western propaganda machine managed to convince so many people of this insane fantasy. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians lost their lives in a NATO proxy war with Russia, and Ukraine will likely cease to exist as a functioning state at the end of all this. All for the insatiable need for NATO expansion. Stoltenberg finally let the cat out of the bag and told us that this was the real reason for the war:

      The opposite happened. He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO. He wanted us to remove our military infrastructure in all Allies that have joined NATO since 1997, meaning half of NATO, all the Central and Eastern Europe, we should remove NATO from that part of our Alliance, introducing some kind of B, or second class membership. We rejected that. So he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders.

      • Tar_Alcaran
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        -51 year ago

        Except that now we have Ukrainian chief negotiator having come out and openly admitted that Russia and Ukraine were on a verge of making a deal back in last March before Boris Johnson sabotaged it.

        Source? Because the only “deal” I can find is basically a surrender of Crimea and the Donbas in 2022.

        Now we’re seeing this massively backfire with western economies going into a recession while Russian economy is now growing.

        Again, source? Sure, this is true if you look at single numbers, but there are huge difference between Europe shifting away from over a decade of quantitative easing and into repair mode, and Russia who is nationalizing businesses left and right and forcing companies to sell them foreign currencies at a discount to prop up the ruble. The need for foreign capital is so massive, due to capital flight, you can land 15% interest in Russia right now.

        The three things propping up the Russian economy are the high oil price, China and massive government intervention.

        even NATO officials now admit that the west lacks industrial capacity to keep up with Russia even in basic things such as shell production.

        Because lobbing shells at eachother is Soviet doctrine, not NATO. NATO doctrine is to bomb the everloving shit out of someone with massive air superiority. If NATO decided to send 200 F35s to Ukraine, there would be no need to more 155mm shells.

        And because it’s not doctrine, nobody really wants to build more artillery factories that will sell great now, and get mothballed in 5 years. If Russia steps into NATO territory, those factories will sprout like mushrooms, but it’s simply a bad business decision to do so now.

        He wanted us to remove our military infrastructure in all Allies that have joined NATO since 1997, meaning half of NATO, all the Central and Eastern Europe

        And tell me, when a dictator known for annexing other countries demands appeasement, how effective has that been historically? I don’t even need Czechoslovakia for this example, although it’s a classic. Did Russia stop after, say, two Chechen wars, Georgia, Abkhazia?

        “There wouldn’t have been a war if putin got what he wanted without one” is a shit take

    • @Tylerdurdon@lemmy.world
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      -11 year ago

      I agree with what you said and appreciate the insight. Thanks for writing it.

      I think part of it from Russia’s side is definitely an attempt to rebuild Stalin’s buffer to the west, but there are echoes of the appeasement that took place before WW2. Crimea was quick and done.

      Then, it’s a repeat years later in an attempt to grab more. Thing is, since then there was a lot of election tampering in the form of misinformation and it continues as an attempt to turn Americans against each other. Russia is waging war via the Internet and it’s working.

      I think the US government is unable to control it because there is no direct control of social media companies, and social media companies are ineffective. Their interests are purely financial and to truly be effective, it would require significant investment.

      The US is instead providing just enough support, but I think it’s purposely done. What happens if they were to provide double? Ukraine pushes Russia back to the border and then what? They continue forward? That’s WW3. Even if they stop at the border, Putin may be forced to stop and may lose power. Then you’re dealing with a potentially worse successor who wants to destroy at all costs…again a dangerous unknown.

      They’re doing it this way on purpose to bleed Russia slowly over time. Russia expected to drive a 40 mile column into the capital and finish fast. A long war is not sustainable for Russia economically and the population isn’t interested either (as shown by the huge expatriation that took place when conscription was announced).

      If enough western countries continue to provide arms, it will damage Russia for a long time to come.

  • Right now I am hearing ever louder calls of Russia winning

    Winning was taking over the county at first. Then it was kherson, and donbass, crimea, and a few others. Now it’s just like 3 areas. If you’re hearing anything about winning it’s because the goal posts are moving.

    Youtuber Perun had some good high level takes on the war. It all boils down to Western support will win. As long as support keeps coming from the rest of the world, eventually Russia will run out of material. WW2 was won (not wholly, but in large part) due to the larger economy being on the allies side.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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      131 year ago

      Do provide us with sources where Russians stated these were the goals. Seems like it’s western propagandists who’ve been making up goals for Russia and then moving the goal posts.

    • Krause [he/him]
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      51 year ago

      Perun

      Garbage NATO propaganda channel, about as reliable to give you an honest summary of what is happening as listening to the Ukrainian government itself.

      WW2 was won (not wholly, but in large part) due to the larger economy being on the allies side

      On the Soviet’s side*, 80% of Germany’s casualties were in the Eastern Front.

    • @Aria@lemmygrad.ml
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      21 year ago

      The absurd claims of Russia’s goals are all from western propaganda. This is from the day of the invasion: https://www.rt.com/russia/550466-putin-ukraine-opeartion-goals/ What are their goals?

      • Demilitarise Ukraine – This is a huge task, but they’re making fast progress.
      • Denazify Ukraine – They’re failing this task, but it’s something that can’t be done until after the war anyway.
      • Create a buffer between a NATO-member-Ukraine and Russia – Incorporating Donbas might satisfy this goal.
      • Stop the sieges on Donetsk and Lugansk – This goal has been met.

      And then they clarify, denazification is optional. A general occupation of Ukraine is not their plan.

      If there is more land they want to occupy, then occupying and holding it now doesn’t actually further that goal. The only thing holding it now is good for is protecting the civilians or using it strategically, either industrially or for staging. Because if the country is successfully demilitarised, Ukraine won’t be able to resist occupation, so that land can be taken later for cheaper. But they haven’t outlined a goal of taking additional land. Crimea was already incorporated at the time, so that’s an extra implied goal – Don’t lose Russian land.

    • @boreengreen@lemm.ee
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      During ww2 the involved parties and their allies were in wartime economy. This is the support that ukraine needs. I feel like today, the west is sending the military version of happy meal aid packages, once in a while, when it’s politically convenient. Should we scale up manufacturing for wartime? Let’s procrastinate.

      • @Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee
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        121 year ago

        Nah, the amount of aid and material they’re sending is substantial, including modern tanks and artillery, as well as more mundane things like shells, bullets etc.

        And they will keep doing it for as long as it takes.

      • The amount of people fighting back on supporting a sovereign democracy getting attacked by a oligarchical dictatorship is nuts.

        Like we did appeasement in the 40s already, it was a bad strategy.

        • Like we did appeasement in the 40s already, it was a bad strategy.

          No no. It was a great strategy. Germany went to war. It was just that Germany also went to war with us, which wasn’t what we wanted.

  • @Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee
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    261 year ago

    Define “winning”.

    Ukraine is, slowly and painfully, gaining ground, so by that measure, they are winning.

    • Ganesh VenugopalOP
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      01 year ago

      Ukraine is, slowly and painfully, gaining ground, so by that measure, they are winning.

      Really? I was hearing the opposite all this while. PS: Slowly and very painfully, fuck, I wish there was an end to this war and we could return to status quo!

      • @Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee
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        201 year ago

        I was hearing the opposite all this while.

        From where? There are multiple, reasonably reputable maps available that show the lines, and regardless of who the map makers support, they have to be accurate because of how easily they can be proven wrong if they make false claims.

        Besides, much like Vietnam, or the many wars in Afghanistan, victory won’t happen on the battlefield, it will happen when the invader finally gets tired of paying the price of war.

        • Ganesh VenugopalOP
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          11 year ago

          From where?

          Indian media mainly, I haven’t explored out of the Indian media bubble though.

          • @Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee
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            151 year ago

            Interesting. I know they’ve historically been close to Russia, I didn’t realise they still had so much support.

          • @Waker@lemmy.world
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            India is absolutely leaning (hard) towards Russia. They probably never bought gas/oil and fertiliser so cheap.

          • Gamma
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            11 year ago

            I watch this channel for daily updates: https://youtube.com/@RFU

            It obviously leans pretty heavily pro-Ukrainian, but it seems to do the daily updates accurately enough from the times I’ve double checked.

            • Tankie seems more targeted then woke. Woke is everything left of Reagan sometimes.

              Tankie is, at it’s most general, anyone supporting authoritarian measures for “left” wing reasons.

                • Jt does support statist solutions. I mean so do I so yeah he’s not a tankie to me, but for some anarchy is the only acceptable end game.

                  Again it’s not generally a “too left” thing, but “too authoritarian” thing.

      • lurch (he/him)
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        41 year ago

        From euronews news bulletins I know Ukraine has crossed the dnipro and cleared a stable bridge head to get more troops to that russian occupied side. Also they said that nuklear reactor the russians occupied, near the front, is in danger again, because it has been cut off from electricity and had to run gasoline generators to cool it.

        This shows ukraine is advancing slowly.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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      -31 year ago

      Could you point to where Ukraine is actually gaining ground. Last I checked, Russia gained more ground than Ukraine in the past six months.

  • Silverseren
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    251 year ago

    It’s a stalemate, largely. While Russia was massively on the backfoot earlier in the year, they mined massive swaths of eastern Ukraine before partially retreating.

    Which makes it unlikely for Russia to actually have any future forward progress, but it also stymies Ukraine from doing the same except extremely slowly. There’s still been several victories for Ukraine over the past few months, but they haven’t changed the fighting area much.

    It’s largely a war of attrition to wear down Russia now, who has been having more and more internal issues as time goes on.

  • @bouh@lemmy.world
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    251 year ago

    It’s mostly a stalemate for now. The dam destruction helped Russia funnel Ukraine counterattack on its biggest fortifications, so not much progress for Ukraine in the south. Russia resumed its offensive in the Dombass and Aavdiivka is starting to look like the new Bhakmut.

    It’s an attrition war and Russia is losing like 2 or 3 times as much as Ukraine in men or material. But Russia has much more men than Ukraine. Russian morale is very low, but Ukraine support from the west is under big pressure, both from Russian propaganda and conservative/fascist political parties. This last one is the real war happening now.

    Next year will be important because of the elections in the US. What happen on the battlefield is still to be seen.

    • MooseGas
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      11 year ago

      Economically, Russia has also been hit hard. NATO has also expanded, which is a blow to Russia.

      • @bouh@lemmy.world
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        41 year ago

        Yes, but Russia is also supported by Iran and China. And there’s no sign of political collapse in Russia.

        I’m not saying Russia is winning. It would take them a millenia to conquer Ukraine at this pace. But I think currently they are only buying time to wait for US election. After that, and depending on whether a breakthrough happen or not before that, peace talk may happen, or not. Time will tell.

  • Blue and Orange
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    221 year ago

    As others have said, it’s a war of attrition. There’s no end in sight. As it stands, we can only speculate on who is winning. Russia have so far failed to make any significant gains, and Ukraine have so far failed to push the Russians out.

    It’s a bit like the stalemates of trench warfare in WW1. Something will have to give eventually.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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      51 year ago

      It’s a war of attrition that Ukraine is losing because they have a much smaller population to draw on and rely on weapons from the west. Ukraine is already conscripting children, women, and the elderly now. It’s absurd to think that such conscripts are going to be able to hold off a seasoned professional army for long.

  • SILLY BEAN
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    131 year ago

    the us military industrial complex’s investors seems to be winning real good

      • Ganesh VenugopalOP
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        51 year ago

        I mean, I don’t want Russia to win, but I have no problem with accepting facts where I see them. I think almost everyone here would agree that both the countries involved have lost much more than they can ever gain out of this war.

      • @galloog1@lemmy.world
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        11 year ago

        The propaganda is strong against the Western system. There is an argument to be made that the origins of this conflict are in energy finds in the Black Sea. Ukraine is uniquely positioned to take advantage of access to the European and Asian markets. Competition in these sections would threaten oligarch monopolies. These energy monopolies are granted to the oligarchs by Putin himself and this is the entire basis of power in the Russian Federation.

        This is simultaneously the reason for the conflict and why the oligarchs have been lock step the entire way.

        It’s this capitalism? Absolutely not.

        Is it economic power? Absolutely so.

  • Diva (she/her)
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    Considering this is a war of attrition, “winning” such as it is doesn’t look like conscripting every man, woman and child that can hold a gun to get blown up in trenches. They should have just negotiated a year ago.

        • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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          41 year ago

          Bojo sabotaging the negotiations was a heinous crime against humanity. Hundreds of thousands of people died as a result and millions more had their lives ruined.

      • @FluffyPotato@lemm.ee
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        11 year ago

        Britain has the geopolitical relevance of the North Sentinel island and Boris can’t even control his hair not to mention a foreign nation. Even if he told Ukraine to not negotiate why would they listen?

          • @FluffyPotato@lemm.ee
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            11 year ago

            But why? The US has plenty of people to deliver a message like that that would actually be believable, like if Boris told another country that the US wants this or that it just would sound like he’s lying. This whole thing sounds too convoluted and ridiculous to be true.

            • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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              -11 year ago

              I mean that’s what Ukrainian chief negotiator told us himself now, and this is what western media admits. UK has always acted as a running dog for the US, and I’m not sure why anybody would find the idea of Boris being the one to deliver the terms to Ukraine as a representative of NATO convoluted or ridiculous. Boris represents the country that’s most closely aligned in US in Europe, this makes him the natural person to go and tell Ukraine what NATO and US want from them. You seem to be making this more complicated than it is.

  • @Candelestine@lemmy.world
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    101 year ago

    Tbf the guy that said arms dealers is 100% correct.

    My opinion is that Ukraine has a light-moderate advantage right now.

    It mainly comes down to American and EU politics. If both aid packages pass, then Ukraine is in a good position to build up over the winter and continue slowly pushing to cut off Crimea, which is the biggest prize. Steadily growing air power is going to make a significant difference, we already saw recently how helpful Russia’s re-emerging air power was in grinding down the push across the Dnieper.

    As an American I’m fairly confident our aid package will eventually pass. Tying it to Israeli aid is a punch below-the-belt, the repubs can’t back away from that. They’re in negotiations currently, probably stalling. Israel could really use that aid though…

    My understanding of the EU aid is Hungary is being a pain, but there’s other tricks available in a big bureaucracy, so we’ll see. Maybe a European can fill that part in better.

    Militarily the Russians are slowly and steadily pushing in the east. There’s nothing terribly important over there, but land is land, towns are towns. Their troop losses are high but they also have a high intake supposedly, so it’s possible they can keep this up for awhile. War materiel is continuously exhausting though, people may have noticed they are not shooting nearly as much artillery as they were in the initial parts of the war. But, you don’t actually need tanks and heavy equipment and shit per se, so, it’s a grinder. Their war support is starting to crack, but is still strong. They might have more mines than Ukraine does Ukrainians, so that’s annoying too.

    The Ukrainians are digging in. Or at least that’s how it seems, they can be a little tricksey sometimes. They’re still ramping up though, building more forces. They have plenty of will and soldiers and grain, but need more money and materiel. The capture of the Russian side of the Dnieper was impressive though, that probably shouldn’t have happened. If they get the resources, they can probably win.

    Oh, and the railroad between China and Russia blew up. No idea how that might’ve happened… Was the only one though.