So when is the free market gonna correct this?
~2-3 years when the new fabs come online, assuming we’re not still spamming new DCs. If we keep spamming new DCs for the next 3 years, then longer.
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When the AI black hole inverts.
When the AI bubble bursts, or the various electronics suppliers and their suppliers get more factories/capacity online in 2028
Never, you know how this games goes.
This is text book market mechanics. Demand rises and so do the prices. As a consequence the demand is somewhat dampened and therefore the market can slowly (!) heal. Due to the shit ton of money that is and can be made, new actors are incentivized to enter the market and existing actors are incentivized to increase their capacity (so no one else jumps in and grabs parts of it).
Now the question is: is it a good sign if such a big number of buyers are willing to throw such an excessive amount of money at you? Probably not, so you might bet on this not playing out in the long run. And the following crash will be hard, because then all the components from the closed data centers would hit the market at the same time with all your backorders going poof.
There still is not a path for data center components to be used in your gaming rig. They are not compatible and you can’t really adapt something like RAM I would wager. You’d have to tear off the chips and make new boards.
If a crash dumps hardware on the market, I bet someone will find a way to make use of it. But I don’t think it will devalue, local models work and are useful, so if most datacenters closed tomorrow, I bet they’d be able to sell that hardware at decent prices to all sorts of companies.
I think if that happens, much stock will be intentionally destroyed before anything like that can happen.
What motivation do people in the DC and AI sector have to fuck with consumer prices? It’s not like NVidia still owns that silicon or something.
Eric Andre as “The Free Market” shoots consumer RAM production; “Why would Samsung do this?”
my 10 year old ram need no die
Dig up that old invoice or receipt if you can since even your ten year old RAM might have a lifetime warranty on it.
Meanwhile, Amazon is just putting GPUs into warehouses so their competitors don’t get them. WTF.
Yeah this is about more than llms. They’re done, or want to be done, doing commerce with the plebs, the bottom 90%. Everything is for the top 10% (already make up 50+% of purchases and spending power, that stat is from 2024 so more now) and B2B.
We get the scraps of the scraps.
Along with Nvidia (and the RAM manufacturers) requiring people to buy shitloads of components in advance, or they just sell to someone else.
I guess I’ll double down and not buy new hardware even harder!
We know… Here in America everyday is worse than the one before.
The Worst Day of Your Life So Far…
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Well, when hockey equipment got too expensive I set my sights on soccer. When RAM gets too expensive I’ll reset my sights again.
So it goes.
Honestly I haven’t been super interested in a demanding game on a while anyway and my 32GB of DDR4 still works.
Good lord… I was just recovering from the shock from current prices…
I didn’t think the 32GB DDR5 7200MHz kit that I got off an eBay auction for 72€ would be a flex a year later
So I guess I should get more ram now before it goes even higher…
