I’m so burnt out and jaded on AI that I don’t think I’ll ever use it for any reason ever. I just wish we could put the cat back in the bag. I know that will never happen.
AI could be used to save our planet from catastrophic climate change, to problem solve ways to improve things, to do hard labor so that people don’t have to… but nah let’s use it to make assholes with too much money get more money! That’s fantastic
They didn’t listen to the scientists.
Somehow I think AI would go from “Super Intelligence” to “that libtard tree hugging computer made of parts from commie Chy-na” as soon as it told them to do something legit that would inconvenience them or disagree with their narrative.
“more clear that the real future of AI is small language and open-weight models running on local desktop computers” So where are we with those smaller models? I haven’t been following them. Are they any good?
Please let it happen. Please! Hopefully datacentres gets demolished also or turned into puppy orphanages.
Some datacenters could be repurposed as traditional datacenters focused on networking and cloud storage, infrastructure.
Look, none of use should be cheering for a full on pop of the buble. It will hurt all industries. And we know the oligarchy has insulated themselves in ways that will ensure they feel very little pain. It will be all the workers who will feel it. As for data centers, I don’t think we need the bubble to burst to fight that. Lots of jurisdictions are already banning them. That is what we should be cheering for.
While I am not cheering for the bubble to pop, the longer it goes on the worse it will be so the sooner it happens the better.
Nephew calling a 1.25% drop a “tailspin”.
Look up the Flash Crash sometime, that is NOTHING.
I’d suggest that the 1929 stock market crash get an entire unit in elementary school, High school, and every economics course in college. Do the same for the 89’ crash and the Dot com Bubble. Really drill it into these young entrepreneurs how Speculating in the stock market NEVER EVER leads to anything good. It’s a Faustian bargain. The consequences WILL arrive; not a matter of “if” but “when.”
Not sure about never. I did very well from my Amazon stock at $25
Yeah I have done pretty well too, but the music box is winding down at this very moment.
There are lot of problems in this world that make artificial intelligence dooming humanity seems like tuesday in comparison , and those problems got similar treatment from all of humanity: protest, hearing, discussions and a bit of outlier that spark things a bit and after that moved on to another problem without solution a.k.a status quo till everything collapse.
I mean why a.i dooming entire humanity begets different treatment?
My money’s on plague.
we just had that.
I put my stake to ongoing environment collapse like sane person here.
The fact that more people don’t know just how far past the point of no return we are is still shocking sometimes.
1 newspaper
Yeah, Bloomberg though. Not saying that they are great, but it’s among those that Wall Street bros read to decide what to buy and sell
Hope the fuckers all burn.
There is this insane amount of investment in AI built around LLMs that threatens the entire world. People worry about the bubble bursting but think AI is the ant’s pants without considering that the LLM is a dead end. None of the AI companies are going to achieve Artificial Intelligence. That’s why they will actually implode, their systems aren’t intelligent.
well, they are being trained my the management, and as we all know these types wan’t 150% of the benefit with 25% of the work.
It wont be a real AI, but itll be just enough to kill off a lot of the software industry.
what software industry? React developer industry?
I’m genuinely curious what “real AI” is to you?
Real ai to me would mean true agency. And an entity which has its own goals and relationship to its world.
Yeah. I wonder if it might be difficult to identify something that reaches that point? I suppose genuine creativity might be an indication of intelligence? Or a desire to reprogram itself? I dunno, I’ve recently read Peter Watts blindsight and it kind of made me reconsider the relationship between consciousness and intelligence.
A true Turing Machine, obviously
One that when given input will give the correct output, every time, without fault or stalling, in a timeframe that is quick
A Turing machine has nothing to do with AI. Pretty much any computer today can emulate one, the only thing lacking is infinite memory.
Isn’t there a difference between Turing Complete and Turing Machine?
I thought many machine can be Turing Complete (when given infinite resources, can give any required output), but a Turing Machine is one that is complete?
I mean, they are artificial intelligence by pretty much any normal definition of that term. So is Battle Chess from the 1980s. So is bank fraud detection. So is Conway’s Game of Life in its most basic definition.
Will they develop “super intelligence”, etc? No
I fear that yes they are not good enough to actually replace labor, but good enough to cause unprecedented chaos. Under capitalism, at least.
The funniest part is that the thing that could actually make AI useful at scale might be what wrecks the investment thesis: cheap, local, open weight models. Wall Street funded a trillion dollar server farm to discover that sometimes the answer is a smaller model running on your laptop. The technology might win while the investors lose. Nevertheless, companies such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft – as well as Nvidia and AMD – are a very long way from simply going under.
Google, Amazon and Microsoft will be fine.
Oracle, though. It’s possible they’ll actually die. And wouldn’t that be tragic.
Oracle, though. It’s possible they’ll actually die. And wouldn’t that be tragic.
Oh the humanity
I doubt it. Government would step in and bail them out.
This isn’t going to happen. They’re not the banks, and they’re pretty universally hated in the country.
When the AI bubble pops it’s going to take down the banks.
There is a lot of private credit dollars loaned to data centers and the banks are heavily invested in private credit.
It’s a house of cards priced for perfection just waiting for one of the big 5 to have a slightly off quarter.
yep, with our money.
As a financial analyst, Klement’s take on the AI economy has been notably grim — back in May, he penned an article in Reuters arguing that institutional investors shouldn’t be asking “whether the AI boom will end, but what will happen to markets when it does.” Now, his live interview on Bloomberg‘s flagship news channel underscores the degree to which the AI bubble is becoming impossible for mainstream commentators to ignore […]
What’s interesting to me is that people who run Bloomberg have a huge advantage in manipulating the market.
In fact, the story behind the AI boom really has to be how the business press operates, always enabling the upper class to be richer.
Of course, if the Iraq war is any example, there will be a few confessions and nothing will change.
We’ve basically got to wait for Anthropic and OpenAI to actually IPO before any of this can get started properly. Once there’s a public expectation for profit from the two biggest AI labs, then the market will start acting against them. We can hope, at least.
Once there’s a public expectation for profit from the two biggest AI labs
I don’t think that it’s necessarily the order things will go.
Anthropic and OpenAI have bills to pay, including obligations to pay a ton of money to partners/vendors in the coming years. They need cash to do that. And the cash can come from 3 main places: revenue from customers, loans from lenders (usually in the form of issuing bonds), and issuing new stock/equity to raise funds.
The IPOs are basically their last chance to raise funds by issuing new equity. Even if each of them raise $100 billion, that’s probably not enough to hit self sustaining profitability. As lenders start to get more skeptical, in a macroeconomic environment with high interest rates and high energy prices, they start to run into a very real possibility that they hit illiquidity issues, even if their core business model actually works by then (and I don’t think it will). There’s just not enough runway for them, even in the most optimistic long term projections.
investing in the wrong future
I’m assuming they mean “future” in the same way the stock market (ab)uses the word, because AI had its lower ribs removed on day one. There’s no future there.
I truly can’t see the bubble bursting at this point. They’ve won their race and built a technology so impressive it cannot be ignored or dropped. AI dominance is now a matter of nations (cyber) security. As soon as they’re any real chance of these labs failing they’ll be a tax payer bailout. I just hope it also results in nationalizing the leading AI labs so the models build on public knowledge can be forced into the public domain where they belong
A bubble burst is not necessarily ‘the end’ of a tech. The internet bubble burst back in 2000, and here we are.
A lot of the financial burden is offloaded to SPVs that may well be allowed to fail, as the AI companies don’t directly carry the liabilities. They certainly carry enough of them, but they have done a lot to manage to leave other entitites holding the bag. Government may happily let Anthropic fold if it came to it, because Trump is all pissy with them. SpaceX would depend on whether Trump is pissed or loving Elon in the moment of decision. Hell if Trump decided that ‘TrumpAI’ was a possible concept he’d probably let them all burn for the chance of his grift picking up the pieces.
Can you explain more what you mean by this? For a bubble like the internet I can understand the giants failing and new companies picking up the pieces because the technology was already available to everyone so there was no real moat for new companies entering the space which feels quite different from the AI situation no? I’ll admit I wasn’t alive in 2000 so I don’t know exactly how all that went down.
Possibilities include the current companies surviving, but after financial catastrophes, some falling completely, and getting absorbed or superseded by big players (e.g. if Anthropic ended up somehow financially vulnerable, Microsoft might slurp them up, or Microsoft decides to do their own initiatives in earnest).
They have not. Infact the opposite.
AI isn’t a race, It’s a marathon. You don’t sprint in marathons the way openAI and anthropic are. You get a 2 trillion dollar in debt just to run your business, then your business practice ain’t sustainable.
they’ll get a tax payer bailout
Under normal circumstances, yes. But geopolitically, it’s anything but normal. That’s the thing most people miss. USA interest rates are at an all time high. And Iran is doing it’s best to push it higher. Any large bailout would mean straining the us debt at a time it’s already in a bad position.
