I truly can’t see the bubble bursting at this point. They’ve won their race and built a technology so impressive it cannot be ignored or dropped. AI dominance is now a matter of nations (cyber) security. As soon as they’re any real chance of these labs failing they’ll be a tax payer bailout. I just hope it also results in nationalizing the leading AI labs so the models build on public knowledge can be forced into the public domain where they belong
AI isn’t a race, It’s a marathon. You don’t sprint in marathons the way openAI and anthropic are. You get a 2 trillion dollar in debt just to run your business, then your business practice ain’t sustainable.
they’ll get a tax payer bailout
Under normal circumstances, yes. But geopolitically, it’s anything but normal. That’s the thing most people miss. USA interest rates are at an all time high. And Iran is doing it’s best to push it higher. Any large bailout would mean straining the us debt at a time it’s already in a bad position.
A bubble burst is not necessarily ‘the end’ of a tech. The internet bubble burst back in 2000, and here we are.
A lot of the financial burden is offloaded to SPVs that may well be allowed to fail, as the AI companies don’t directly carry the liabilities. They certainly carry enough of them, but they have done a lot to manage to leave other entitites holding the bag. Government may happily let Anthropic fold if it came to it, because Trump is all pissy with them. SpaceX would depend on whether Trump is pissed or loving Elon in the moment of decision. Hell if Trump decided that ‘TrumpAI’ was a possible concept he’d probably let them all burn for the chance of his grift picking up the pieces.
Can you explain more what you mean by this? For a bubble like the internet I can understand the giants failing and new companies picking up the pieces because the technology was already available to everyone so there was no real moat for new companies entering the space which feels quite different from the AI situation no? I’ll admit I wasn’t alive in 2000 so I don’t know exactly how all that went down.
Possibilities include the current companies surviving, but after financial catastrophes, some falling completely, and getting absorbed or superseded by big players (e.g. if Anthropic ended up somehow financially vulnerable, Microsoft might slurp them up, or Microsoft decides to do their own initiatives in earnest).
I truly can’t see the bubble bursting at this point. They’ve won their race and built a technology so impressive it cannot be ignored or dropped. AI dominance is now a matter of nations (cyber) security. As soon as they’re any real chance of these labs failing they’ll be a tax payer bailout. I just hope it also results in nationalizing the leading AI labs so the models build on public knowledge can be forced into the public domain where they belong
They have not. Infact the opposite.
AI isn’t a race, It’s a marathon. You don’t sprint in marathons the way openAI and anthropic are. You get a 2 trillion dollar in debt just to run your business, then your business practice ain’t sustainable.
Under normal circumstances, yes. But geopolitically, it’s anything but normal. That’s the thing most people miss. USA interest rates are at an all time high. And Iran is doing it’s best to push it higher. Any large bailout would mean straining the us debt at a time it’s already in a bad position.
A bubble burst is not necessarily ‘the end’ of a tech. The internet bubble burst back in 2000, and here we are.
A lot of the financial burden is offloaded to SPVs that may well be allowed to fail, as the AI companies don’t directly carry the liabilities. They certainly carry enough of them, but they have done a lot to manage to leave other entitites holding the bag. Government may happily let Anthropic fold if it came to it, because Trump is all pissy with them. SpaceX would depend on whether Trump is pissed or loving Elon in the moment of decision. Hell if Trump decided that ‘TrumpAI’ was a possible concept he’d probably let them all burn for the chance of his grift picking up the pieces.
Can you explain more what you mean by this? For a bubble like the internet I can understand the giants failing and new companies picking up the pieces because the technology was already available to everyone so there was no real moat for new companies entering the space which feels quite different from the AI situation no? I’ll admit I wasn’t alive in 2000 so I don’t know exactly how all that went down.
Possibilities include the current companies surviving, but after financial catastrophes, some falling completely, and getting absorbed or superseded by big players (e.g. if Anthropic ended up somehow financially vulnerable, Microsoft might slurp them up, or Microsoft decides to do their own initiatives in earnest).