I honestly don’t think he’ll be able to run. Two or three major things are counting against him.

1. His health. He’s 77, unhealthy, and he may not make it to 78. Both his parents died very old, mother - 88, father - 93. They also had far fewer health concerns though. Plus he caught COVID-19 with most 70-year-olds getting some sort of form of long covid.

2. He might be federally barred from office. On March 4, 2024, his insurrection trial will start and if he is found guilty it would be very difficult for any legal system to state he can still hold federal office.

3. He might not even win the primary much less the federal election. There are a lot stronger republican candidates out there and the GOP is starting to see that Trump is a dividing force. If they don’t go with him, they might split the vote between him and a GOP, if they do go with them, they might split the vote to Democrats.

Lastly and this is like 3.5, Napovointerco might be enacted. If that ever happens the GOP might not win another election. It’s essentially a state pact that these states will honor voting with the national popular vote regardless of what the people in the states vote for. It’s almost at 270 electoral votes. At that point, it will be enacted and the national popular vote will be the deciding factor going forward. The Electoral College will be dead. This also has an interesting side effect that it might cause a civil war.

Conservates: He already won in 2020 just you wait until he rides back in on a bald eagle and jails all the pedophile aliens from Georgia who stole the election. Hunter Biden!

Liberals: I learned my lesson making predictions in November 2020.

I doubt it. Polls conducted this early aren’t worth much. People who tend to vote for Democrats may wish for a younger candidate than Biden, but when confronted in the voting booth with a choice of fascism or Biden, most will choose Biden.

Probably. I don’t follow US politics closely, but it does feel like we’re in the darkest timeline.

Besides, he kind of goatse-d the overton window. Nothing would surprise me now that it’s already happened once.

Probably. It’s america after all

I’m going to say no. The loudest people don’t always seem to make it to the polls. Here in Illinois, we heard lots of hate for Pritzker. Anti JB signs everywhere. Only 58% turned out to vote and Pritzker was declared the winner within hours of the polls opening

Yes, until proven otherwise… call it a coping mechanism.

In 2020, Trump was blamed for exacerbating the pandemic, the economy was struggling, the Black Lives Matter movement was at its peak, etc. the stage was set for an easy win, but democrats barely won control of the senate and Biden’s victory was close enough to let Trumps election nonsense get traction.

Now going into 2024, Biden is taking the blame for everything, is in a no win situation on Israel, and is doing poorly in polls (especially concerning since lately polls have under represented trump voters.) then there are all the protest voters who imply they will vote for trump out of spite or just cause they hate Biden and the DNC…

My two big questions right now are 1) will trump be in jail (seems unlikely considering how nothing ever sticks to the man and he has a stacked court in his favor) and 2) what effect will the actual campaign season and especially political ads have on voters (a brilliant campaign could do wonders for Biden).

There is also the chance that the average American’s experiences with the economy improve next year. Inflation is down, wages are growing, unions are seeing success, the Israel situation will hopefully be done well before the election, etc.

I don’t believe Trump will be the GOP nominee. He will run third party.

There is a strong movement to hold a constitutional convention before the next election. It is backed by a right wing group called ALEC. They think they have a loophole to make it happen and the new speaker of the house backs the idea. I think if they had a wider majority it would already be happening. They will rewrite the rules to ensure a hard right anti-civil rights candidate wins.

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I think it’s a bit early to make any kind of educated speculation and wild speculation just isn’t really all that helpful for anyone.

I mean, he may win the election. But there’s no way he makes it to office.

I think he’ll die from the stress of 4+ (and counting) simultaneous criminal trials well before any of them are held

Yeah. I do think he will. Most people I know are pro Trump and have been consistently and vocally since last election.

Yes.

Biden has been a damp squib of a President, so even if people dislike Trump they’re not going to come out in force to vote for Biden again, whereas Trump supporters certainly will.