Bullshit. Chinese RAM is ramping up to world scale levels. LLMs are reaching massive diminishing returns points, and open weights local AI setups that are near frontier level, and which can be run on consumer level hardware are already here, and getting very hardware efficient. The AI bubble burst is very close. Memory makers are pushing FOMO buying.
Yea, I wouldn’t be surprised if Samsung and SK Hynix would come to regret their deals with OpenAI once the Chinese have ramped up production and price them out of the market.
Yeah, but that news won’t make a boardroom happy.
The local models require massive amounts of ram that isn’t available for most consumer hardware
I do hope the bubble bursts soon but low ram and local ai aren’t compatible
Ay, if you are sure about that, buy calls (or puts, idk) from open AI and 2x your money!
Pay attention to history. Supply crunches like this are followed by supply glut.
There’s a reason why a company like SanDisk is signing multi year fixed price contracts now with the big data guys. That’s not a bet on hardware prices continuing to rise.
Yeah this is like when the cops investigated themselves and find no wrongdoing. Why would anyone listen to the chip mafia when they have only their own interests in mind. They want you to think that there is no point in waiting for prices to drop, when that is obviously what everyone should be doing right now. Basically everyone should boycott the entire semiconductor industry as much as possible.
But this case they’re just not making consumer ram. No glut.
I really, really hope that the Chinese take most of the market away from these assholes.
Sure, as long as you don’t account for the AI bubble ever bursting. After that, memory will be cheap. We’ll be living in an economic hellscape, but the memory will be cheap.
why would it be cheap, if people would buy it at 4x the normal price?
The price is only high because of the artificial demand from all the data centers. Manufacturers are increasing production capacity to provide more supply. Once the bubble bursts, that demand will drop, but the production capacity will still be there. Supply and demand. Price will go down.
thats what the economics textbook says, but it also says that all parties in the economy are perfectly rational. however this is not the reality. they have tested it, people are already used to the high prices and they have no problem with it, enough of them will buy it anyway. the price drops from completely unaffordable 7x price to barely affordable 4x price, and people are already buying it again. if they aim for 4x price, they only need the quarter of the former sales to make the same profit. and if at 4x price the sales are the quarter of former sales, they could theoretically shut down most factories or production lines to reduce costs and in turn raise profits even more.
I thought of the problem is they aren’t ramping up production because they think AI is a bubble
First new fabs are being opened this or next year last I heard. AI boom started in 2022 and fab construction and setup time is said to be 4 years (or more if there are issues).
Of course the question is, will they be making more DDR or more HBM…
No, they are definitely ramping up production, just not nearly fast enough. Chip factories take longer to build than data centers.
This is my read on it too. I give it a year.
Help us, China. You’re our only hope.
I don’t like conspiracy theories but hugging face was bought, tens of thousands of Mac’s were bought, RAM is “indefinitely “ high priced.
Starting to feel someone doesn’t want the self hosted AI to get legs.
Self hosting also requires a ton of RAM because each individual user has to load a (usually slightly smaller) model + KV cache, whereas for hosted, they load the huge-ass model once (per cluster) and then store KV caches for a bunch of users, which has better scaling.
The memory companies win whether you self-host or pay a subscription. They might win more if you self-host because look at the cost of self-hosting, it’s actually pretty steep if you don’t have the hardware already from the before times.
It’s just hyper capitalism unfortunately.
Self hosting isnt a threat to them, most folks ain’t doing that. And those of us who do already block most of their ways to generate revenue of our usage, so we don’t really matter to them.
Goddammit this is so infuriating as a homelabber
Used DDR4 sodimms on eBay. Got 2x8GB for 35 pounds.
Through 2030? I was hoping the AI bubble would have burst by then…. I really should have gone for that 64gb
