Theoretically yes. This is an issue that has been considered before, though admittedly not with regards to fucking Greenland. Turkiye and Greece have long been enemies as well as members of NATO, and it’s been considered that the invocation of Article 5 by the aggressed-upon party against the aggressing party in case of a serious war would, theoretically, be binding on the other members of NATO.
In practice, NATO is a gentleman’s agreement with no means of enforcement. Everything comes down to political will - NATO is just an organizational structure to facilitate a response. It cannot replace the will (or lack thereof) of national governments.
Yeah. The invocation of Article 5 for Afghanistan showed a mixed response from the various NATO nations in what support they would provide.
To your point, I think the political will to defend Greenland will definitely be there from the overwhelming majority of other NATO states.
Will the political will to start an actual shooting war with the US be there?
I don’t think there’s a practical ability. The European powers can’t project power outside their boarders without the US helping. Especially with an overseas nation like Greenland.
England and France have a few carriers, but that’s about it. Landing troops would be highly vulnerable to US air superiority. US carriers are larger and more numerous than anything Europe can put up. Based on the local geography, those carriers can stay safe from drone range (a benefit Russia does not have on the Black Sea).
But that also assumes the US military is unified to follow orders into an illegal war, and that may not be the case.
I’m not versed in modern military strategy, but I’ve heard others say that the U.S. carrier fleet has been a dominant force because the U.S. has only taken on adversaries that didn’t have submarines, and anti-torpedo systems aren’t foolproof. Also, it seems to me that they’re for force projection, and not so great for defensive action, to since there are only 11 of them. That is, the U.S. has a lot of assets that enemies could strike while the carrier groups are elsewhere.
I guess I’m not convinced that the carriers would be decisive in a conflict with a modern military, instead of the usual U.S. MO of picking on the weak.
How weak is weak? Prior to the first Gulf War, Iraq had the fourth largest military in the world. That was as much of a curbstomp as you’ll ever see in military history.
There’s some theories out there about just how vulnerable modern carriers are to modern subs. One thing detractors bring up is a Chinese sub popping up in US Navy maneuvers completely undetected in 2007. However, active sonar methods are usually turned off outside of wartime, so it’s not as simple as that.
One theory is that subs are at an inherent disadvantage in a technological arms race. Let’s say a nation produces a sonar that can pick up any sub currently built. Likely, they’ll be able to fit that sonar onto all their existing ships. Conversely, if you wanted to protect your own subs against that new sonar method, you will likely have to rebuild all your subs. Now, even nuclear subs are cheaper to produce than supercarriers, but this still isn’t a favorable technological position in the long run.
Drones and hypersonic missiles are a bigger threat, IMO. More so drones. Hypersonic missiles have some disadvantages of maneuverability that make them a poor choice for a moving target. Drones are limited in range, though, so the US Navy could just keep the carriers away from shore.
But that also assumes the US military is unified to follow orders into an illegal war, and that may not be the case.
Curious about why it would be an illegal war. Unjust, immoral, unprovoked, and unnecessary are not actually what makes a war illegal.
The invasion of Iraq was entirely based on false pretenses and the military was perfectly unified. Compared to that, an open war of conquest is pretty reasonable.
It’s illegal by international law–UN charter and the ICC both have sections against invading other country’s territory. International law is only as good as anyone is willing to enforce it, which in the case of Iraq, wasn’t very much.
Why would Greenland be different? Iraq was supported by a paper thin excuse of WMDs, and the history of antagonism. The Trump Administration hasn’t done the legwork to even setup a paper thin excuse beyond “they have resources we want”, and there’s no particular history of Greenland invading its own neighbors or even threatening them. In fact, it’s been an important strategic location for the US Navy’s control of the North Atlantic since WWII. Trump hasn’t bothered with even the slightest attempt at this because he’s an idiot.
Does that mean the military will refuse the order? I really have no idea. It’s not something anybody should count on. More likely, you’ll have different units making different decisions. Some outright refusing, others slow walking their orders while appearing to obey, and others eager to do it. However, it’s possible that the military will refuse en masse.
I think the burgeoning protest movements in the US should also be prepared to take direct action against the military. Things like linking hands to block the gates to weapons factories. And to the naysayers of “what are these protests even accomplishing?”, it’s to prepare a mass movement that is capable of doing this sort of thing.
Administration hasn’t done the legwork to even setup a paper thin excuse beyond “they have resources we want”
The paper thin excuse is “national security” that Europe may get uppity in next few years and US needs full control of Greenland territory in order to bomb them back to Iraq level.
I have zero belief that any units will ignore or slow walk any orders. There’s just no history of that happening in recent US military existence to expect it to happen now. Vietnam saw a handful of cases where people likely killed their commanders, but it very plainly didn’t impact the course of the war.
The UN will never determine that the US is engaged in an illegal war. The security council needs to vote on that, and the US gets to veto. The ICC doesn’t apply to the US because we never ratified the agreement. It’s just someone elses laws.
Direct action against the military is more likely to have an effect, but linking arms is not going to be effective. Impeding military production is just going to get you beaten and arrested, at best.
Specifically interfering with military operations is particularly illegal and carries penalties way worse than the usual you get for messing with other businesses.
If you’re going that far, at least do something effective rather than slowing down a truck for a few hours.
Look to the WW1 protests, and what was effective there and what happened.
The invasion of Iraq was entirely based on false pretenses and the military was perfectly unified.
Iraq is filled with “scary looking” brown people with a different religion. And they have the excuse of 9/11.
Greenland tho? Yea good luck convincing people to fight the war.
I lack your confidence in the racism of the US military. I think it just changes what terms they use to dehuminize anyone they shoot.
It’s not like the US has never invaded anyplace with white people.
In practice, it would be the end of NATO.
Side note: If this administration does invade, just accept the invite to the group chat our drunken Secretary of Defense sends you.
Probably? I don’t think anyone knows for sure. It’s not like NATO countries have invaded each other before.
USA itself would violate it’s own membership. With such an act it became the enemy of the NATO.
Obligation or not, it would set a frightening precedent of they didn’t.
Yeah, it’s a no win. Either NATO becomes ineffective because it won’t honour it’s agreement or WW3 starts.
It’s not an easy say since Greenland is not a nato member, however it’s an autonomous state of Denmark, which is.
Anyone’s guess, really.
Edit: just as an addition I want to clarify I am trying to help answer the question. I wish peace for the world and especially Greenland.
Greenland is not a nato member
That’s like saying your right arm isn’t a human.
Greenland is simply a part of Denmark, so it is a NATO member.
I stated that factually. It’s not my opinion.
If that’s not the case in this construct I might be wrong, fair enough.
I am not an expert on this, I just looked up nato members and Greenland is not in there.
But Denmark is deemed legally to protect its autonomy which is a nato country. It’s a strange case…
I know it’s not the best source from what I read on the Wikipedia article Greenland being a Autonomous territory of Denmark is apart of Denmark and therefore a NATO member
On 20 March 2023 Greenland send their own diplomat within Denmark’s group. So not only are they a Denmark Autonomous territory but they also have their own diplomat in NATO.
Whether or not they have to defend, if they don’t, Greece and Erdogan will go to war.
Article 5 is only an obligation to have a meeting if someone calls for a meeting. It is not as strong as propagandized.
Greece and Turkey often have clashes and it is never a NATO issue.
CIA pig vermin NATO chief, Rutte, said it would not be a NATO matter.
I’ve never seen my former prime-minister been referenced as that :') - most certainly not my political colour, but why CIA pig vermin? He is most certainly a competent manager of the status quo, but as a leader spineless and without a vision (for a better world)
NATO leaders are only allowed to be CIA pig vermin meant to force submission of other members to US. CIA agents dominate all colonial political parties, but it is only the most loyal that rise to NATO chief.
Check the article 5 requirement. I don’t see any “unless another NATO country” exceptions.
Probably moot as all the US has to do is increase presence and wait for an “or else” moment, so that they can rely with “or else what?”
Kind of like Czechoslovakia in WW2.
