[NB: check the byline as usual, thanks. /~Rayne] We’ve discussed in comments this past week the possibility Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will deeply affect the global wheat market. It’s already affected wheat futures pricing dramatically. But wheat futures are only the tip of the iceberg. We are looking at the unfolding of a world war […]
If you still can’t wrap your head around the fact that Europe is more dependent on Russia than the other way around, I really don’t know what else to tell you. Life is going to get very hard for you in the near future though.
Europe could be pretty self sufficient as well, but it chose to engage in trade for the benefit of both sides and also as a way to make war more difficult (very explicitly in the case of German energy imports)
Some things will definitely get more expensive in the short run, but on the positive side this will speed up transition to renewable energies and less food waste (through animal production etc).
But in the end most of the goods will probably just be shuffled around though. China will import more wheat from Russia at slightly lower prices while the current non-russian suppliers will export to the West at slightly higher prices.
If this accelerates energy transition off fossil fuels that would certainly be a positive, however we should remember that the whole reason Germany asked Russia to build nord stream 2 was due to the fact that stuff like wind and solar wasn’t meeting demand. Dismantling nuclear turned out to be a bad idea. However, none of this will happen in the short term and there is no credible replacement for energy imports from Russia.
I’m sure Europe can adapt exactly the same way Russia can adapt. What I pointed out was that Russia was prepared for this situation while Europe was not. If you think that Europe can just magically replace 40% of its energy and much of its food import overnight, then I don’t really know what else to tell you. Meanwhile, China clearly demonstrates that centrally governed economies can in fact react to challenges quickly and efficiently.
If you still can’t wrap your head around the fact that Europe is more dependent on Russia than the other way around, I really don’t know what else to tell you. Life is going to get very hard for you in the near future though.
Europe could be pretty self sufficient as well, but it chose to engage in trade for the benefit of both sides and also as a way to make war more difficult (very explicitly in the case of German energy imports)
Some things will definitely get more expensive in the short run, but on the positive side this will speed up transition to renewable energies and less food waste (through animal production etc).
But in the end most of the goods will probably just be shuffled around though. China will import more wheat from Russia at slightly lower prices while the current non-russian suppliers will export to the West at slightly higher prices.
If this accelerates energy transition off fossil fuels that would certainly be a positive, however we should remember that the whole reason Germany asked Russia to build nord stream 2 was due to the fact that stuff like wind and solar wasn’t meeting demand. Dismantling nuclear turned out to be a bad idea. However, none of this will happen in the short term and there is no credible replacement for energy imports from Russia.
Very soon we shall see who lives in delusion and who lives in reality. Judging by all the lies that Russia has told, I feel confident. Let’s find out.
We will definitely find out soon. Probably within a few months.
Based on understanding basic math and the amount of imports Europe relies on from Russia I feel pretty confident as well. Let’s find out.
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I’m sure Europe can adapt exactly the same way Russia can adapt. What I pointed out was that Russia was prepared for this situation while Europe was not. If you think that Europe can just magically replace 40% of its energy and much of its food import overnight, then I don’t really know what else to tell you. Meanwhile, China clearly demonstrates that centrally governed economies can in fact react to challenges quickly and efficiently.