From what I understand Putins’ decision is not too surprising. Ukraine has cut off the separatist controlled regions. This means for example it does not provide any pensions and apparently it’d be pretty hard to even get into other parts of Ukraine from these areas even if you wanted to. That’s why Russia recently started handing out passports. The percentage of ethnic Russians in this regions is pretty high, so a lot of Russian citizens live there now.
With growing tensions and more and more armed conflicts this put Putin into a bad spot. After his previous decisions he hardly had a choice but to protect his citizens. So the first thing they tried was to evacuate them. But only few people actually left for Russia. Thus the current decision.
This is not meant to apologize for any transgressions but merely to state that this was somewhat predictable and I can understand why Putin would act like this.
Something that is being brought up even more frequently now is a full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia. I do not see the point in that. What’s in it for Russia? I think Putin would be much happier with Ukraine as neutral buffer to other NATO members like Poland. Does the Ukraine have any natural resources? War is very expensive and Russia spends relatively little money on its military.
Realistically this is the same kind of situation that happened with Georgia and makes sense if you want to garner some level of legitimacy for your invasion.
Russia nor any country are going to outright say that they want war or that they are invading. So, like the US, you make some shitty pretense to invade, just make sure the reason looks peaceful or for protection.
What is in it for Russia? Political control, influence and resources. Russia’s economy is doing poorly and this is similar behaviour to what has happened with Georgia and Crimea. For the political control, we can typically find that Putin’s domestic situation typically improves when the focus is not on his country’s issues. Approval rating jumps up, people feel safer knowing that Putin is strong on terrorists, etc etc.
Russia’s economy isn’t doing poorly, but you might think that when you guzzle propaganda all day. Russia also gains absolutely nothing by invading Ukraine.
Russia’s economy never recovered from being slapped with sanctions following the theft of Crimea. You can see that both in a dip in their nominal GDP and in a dip in the Big Mac index. As that page explains, a lower index value implies that McDonald’s is pricing their burgers lower to match what local people can pay. The ruble fell against the dollar, so the price of a Big Mac relative to a US dollar fell.
That’s utter nonsense as the article I linked above very clearly shows. If anything, the sanctions forced Russia to start developing its domestic industry making its economy far more robust than it was previously. Russia now also has an open alliance with China meaning that anything Russia can’t produce domestically can be sourced from China. Meanwhile, BRI is creating a huge economic bloc in Eurasia that Russia is an active member of.
I’m also not sure whom you’re claiming Crimea was stolen from given that people of Crimea are ethnically Russian and have overwhelmingly voted in favor of joining Russia after the 2014 coup. Once again, you don’t appear to care about people’s right for self determination in the slightest. It doesn’t matter to you what people who actually live in Crimea want, all you care about NATO’s geopolitical goals. Really telling on yourself there bud.
That’s utter nonsense as the article I linked above very clearly shows.
The article shows Russia’s currency sliding in value. It dipped sharply following the annexation of Crimea, began a recovery, and then dipped sharply with the pandemic. So yes, the sanctions absolutely hurt their economy.
If anything, the sanctions forced Russia to start developing its domestic industry making its economy far more robust than it was previously.
This is true, the sanctions did have that effect, at least regarding making it resilient to sanctions. This is an effect we’ve seen in other economies under a heavy sanctions regime (Cuba, Iran) where they’ve developed a more internally resilient economy at the cost of overall efficiency. All that said, there are plenty of levers that the West has left to pull. If Russian oligarchs start having their London real estate confiscated, you can bet words will be had with President Putin.
Is it ever true that an “invader gains nothing”? Or are you just (strangely) saying that there is more to lose than to gain?
Everyone on reddit is ranting about how it will be another Afghanistan… but what if it were merely another Chechnya? If Putin believes it to be that, he might well decide to invade/annex.
“Strong” support? What’s that mean? Sure, the bullies are beating up the nerd, but the nerd will win because you intend to cheer him on from the sidelines?
When your economy is ~60% resources, you’re eco is fragile and honestly, that site doesn’t even support your position. Losing EU and UK as trading partners is going to substantially injure them (it will also hit the EU and UK). Russian economy isn’t as diversified as you might think.
Why would Russian economy have huge swath of money ripped out of it exactly? We’ve already established that energy is a small sector of the overall Russian economy. Furthermore, Russia is already building pipelines to China, and with the economic growth happening in China and across BRI, it’s pretty clear that Russia will be able to redirect its exports if Europe decides to commit economic suicide. And of course energy prices are going through the roof right now giving Russia further leverage.
Ukraine was a neutral buffer before Russia invaded. Seeing Russia dishonor Ukraine’s sovereignty will push what’s left of Ukraine into NATO. So Russia has basically forced NATO encroachment even closer than it was before. And that’s not even counting Finland.
Calling Ukraine neutral after the Western-backed coup of 2014, in which the US candidate became PM and Russian-hating Neonazis got into government is some twisting of facts. The whole Maidan (which was supported massively by Western governments, press and NGOs) was about aligning with the West for fuck’s sake! The invasion only happened after that.
Neutral in what regard? Russia violated their sovereignty in annexing parts of their territory and in supporting militarily separatist movements. They’ve been forced into opposition by Russia’s aggression.
Hmm, Russia Today is reporting about celebrations in Donetsk and Lugansk because of this decision: https://www.rt.com/russia/550172-donetsk-lugansk-recognition-celebrations/ meanwhile western media and leaders as well as other parts of Ukraine are condemning this move.
From what I understand Putins’ decision is not too surprising. Ukraine has cut off the separatist controlled regions. This means for example it does not provide any pensions and apparently it’d be pretty hard to even get into other parts of Ukraine from these areas even if you wanted to. That’s why Russia recently started handing out passports. The percentage of ethnic Russians in this regions is pretty high, so a lot of Russian citizens live there now. With growing tensions and more and more armed conflicts this put Putin into a bad spot. After his previous decisions he hardly had a choice but to protect his citizens. So the first thing they tried was to evacuate them. But only few people actually left for Russia. Thus the current decision.
This is not meant to apologize for any transgressions but merely to state that this was somewhat predictable and I can understand why Putin would act like this.
Something that is being brought up even more frequently now is a full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia. I do not see the point in that. What’s in it for Russia? I think Putin would be much happier with Ukraine as neutral buffer to other NATO members like Poland. Does the Ukraine have any natural resources? War is very expensive and Russia spends relatively little money on its military.
Realistically this is the same kind of situation that happened with Georgia and makes sense if you want to garner some level of legitimacy for your invasion.
Russia nor any country are going to outright say that they want war or that they are invading. So, like the US, you make some shitty pretense to invade, just make sure the reason looks peaceful or for protection.
What is in it for Russia? Political control, influence and resources. Russia’s economy is doing poorly and this is similar behaviour to what has happened with Georgia and Crimea. For the political control, we can typically find that Putin’s domestic situation typically improves when the focus is not on his country’s issues. Approval rating jumps up, people feel safer knowing that Putin is strong on terrorists, etc etc.
Russia’s economy isn’t doing poorly, but you might think that when you guzzle propaganda all day. Russia also gains absolutely nothing by invading Ukraine.
Russia’s economy never recovered from being slapped with sanctions following the theft of Crimea. You can see that both in a dip in their nominal GDP and in a dip in the Big Mac index. As that page explains, a lower index value implies that McDonald’s is pricing their burgers lower to match what local people can pay. The ruble fell against the dollar, so the price of a Big Mac relative to a US dollar fell.
That’s utter nonsense as the article I linked above very clearly shows. If anything, the sanctions forced Russia to start developing its domestic industry making its economy far more robust than it was previously. Russia now also has an open alliance with China meaning that anything Russia can’t produce domestically can be sourced from China. Meanwhile, BRI is creating a huge economic bloc in Eurasia that Russia is an active member of.
I’m also not sure whom you’re claiming Crimea was stolen from given that people of Crimea are ethnically Russian and have overwhelmingly voted in favor of joining Russia after the 2014 coup. Once again, you don’t appear to care about people’s right for self determination in the slightest. It doesn’t matter to you what people who actually live in Crimea want, all you care about NATO’s geopolitical goals. Really telling on yourself there bud.
The article shows Russia’s currency sliding in value. It dipped sharply following the annexation of Crimea, began a recovery, and then dipped sharply with the pandemic. So yes, the sanctions absolutely hurt their economy.
This is true, the sanctions did have that effect, at least regarding making it resilient to sanctions. This is an effect we’ve seen in other economies under a heavy sanctions regime (Cuba, Iran) where they’ve developed a more internally resilient economy at the cost of overall efficiency. All that said, there are plenty of levers that the West has left to pull. If Russian oligarchs start having their London real estate confiscated, you can bet words will be had with President Putin.
Is it ever true that an “invader gains nothing”? Or are you just (strangely) saying that there is more to lose than to gain?
Everyone on reddit is ranting about how it will be another Afghanistan… but what if it were merely another Chechnya? If Putin believes it to be that, he might well decide to invade/annex.
Ukraine will have strong western support so it won’t be as easy as Chechnya. Although Putin might decide to annex anyway.
“Strong” support? What’s that mean? Sure, the bullies are beating up the nerd, but the nerd will win because you intend to cheer him on from the sidelines?
Should have kept their nukes. Now they’re fucked.
When your economy is ~60% resources, you’re eco is fragile and honestly, that site doesn’t even support your position. Losing EU and UK as trading partners is going to substantially injure them (it will also hit the EU and UK). Russian economy isn’t as diversified as you might think.
You realize that two minutes of googling would save you from outing yourself as an ignoramus?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271373/distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-russia/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235291/legal-entity-revenue-by-industry-in-russia/
Let me reword, if your exports are mostly resources, your economy is fragile. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/14/russias-natural-resources-valued-at-60-of-gdp-a64800
The main exports from Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exports_of_Russia Which is referenced here: https://www.trademap.org/Product_SelCountry_TS.aspx?nvpm=1|643||||TOTAL|||2|1|1|2|2|1|1|1|1|1
Using Exports as the sole measure of the robustness of the economy really tells me that you don’t know much about economics.
Ahh here we go, yes because an economy does fantastic when a huge swath of money get ripped out from it.
Why would Russian economy have huge swath of money ripped out of it exactly? We’ve already established that energy is a small sector of the overall Russian economy. Furthermore, Russia is already building pipelines to China, and with the economic growth happening in China and across BRI, it’s pretty clear that Russia will be able to redirect its exports if Europe decides to commit economic suicide. And of course energy prices are going through the roof right now giving Russia further leverage.
Ukraine was a neutral buffer before Russia invaded. Seeing Russia dishonor Ukraine’s sovereignty will push what’s left of Ukraine into NATO. So Russia has basically forced NATO encroachment even closer than it was before. And that’s not even counting Finland.
Calling Ukraine neutral after the Western-backed coup of 2014, in which the US candidate became PM and Russian-hating Neonazis got into government is some twisting of facts. The whole Maidan (which was supported massively by Western governments, press and NGOs) was about aligning with the West for fuck’s sake! The invasion only happened after that.
They’ll surely love Russia after getting invaded a second time. If alignment or invasion are their choices, Russia is really pushing them into NATO.
I’m not disagreeing there. Care to revise your statement that Ukraine was neutral prior to the invasion or are you just going to ignore that?
Neutral in what regard? Russia violated their sovereignty in annexing parts of their territory and in supporting militarily separatist movements. They’ve been forced into opposition by Russia’s aggression.