The numbers:
- Poilievre, CPC 13.7%
- Lewis, NDP 42.6%
- Carney, Liberal 39.5%
- May, Green 2.3%
- Another Cand. 1.9%
Source: https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/post/can-avi-lewis-begin-an-ndp-comeback-in-beaches-east-york
I shoulda voted Lewis. Oh well he was my second choice and Rob prolly won’t win so… 😅
CBC’s Power and Politics panelists are starting to talk as if Avi won lol, because of the donation amounts.
It’s a good predictor and he leads by a lot. So I think that’s fair.
What I want to hear and see is the signs of bricks forming in some asses as they get to discuss this poll. I hope it’s discussed at Good Talk this Friday too. 😅
Definitely Philip J Fournier and Eric Grenier might pick it up on The Writ podcast they do separately. They’ve lately have not been finding much notable movement on the NDP and Alberta Liberal support has their attention the most… but this surely will come up on Thursday for them. I can edit and link to the episode once I see it.
Direct link to them talking about Beaches EY: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eS4-YBCRQEk&t=1460
I follow The Numbers, I’ll watch this week’s episode! 😁
E:
Direct link to them talking about Beaches EY: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eS4-YBCRQEk&t=1460
Thank you baby!
Episode is out. The swing is interesting but they do note it could all be moot if Erskine-Smith decides not to leave The Beaches-East York federal riding.
I’ll watch in a bit.
Let’s not jinx it folks.
Using useless polls to sway public opinion just seems so american.
not so much ‘sway’ rather many of us haven’t seen this jagmeed-less ndp move yet, i’ll listen to them more then i’ll listen to the cons, the greens or the Quebecers rn, they’re a good opposition to carney, who is a soft conservative more interested in the number then touchy feeliy things, but not a monster in a suit like i suspect PP might be.
Good. We need real change in this country and an end to liberal and conservative madness.
Anti Zionazi foreign policy, with more containment of US relationship, platform is an easy opportunity to win in most NATO colonies, and in fact in US. You can overcome the Zionist supremacist funding by disqualifying the opponents receiving it.
Its convenient to support all the Covid stimulus funded entirely via printed money and BoC QE, and then state we need to make everything publically owned because of greedflation. At what point is it the governments own lack of desire to raise taxes to pay for anything thats at fault?
Trudeau had a generational fairness capital gains tax, that seems like a more sensible solution to future inflation.
I’m right pissed that they reversed the increase in capital gains tax. Capital gains should be taxed as income (but with capital losses allowed to be used to offset). The planned increase from ½ to ⅔ inclusion beyond $10K (iirc?) didn’t go nearly far enough. I guess, sure, ½ inclusion to $10K likely makes sense, to encourage more Canadians to invest at all, but people pulling in $100K+/yr from their investments shouldn’t be taxed on only 50% of their investment gains.
It’s insane that capital owners pay less tax than working class Canadians. (I mean working class in the “need to work to live” original definition, not “low-education worker” meaning).
Agreed its bullshit, and I don’t actually believe it was put in to do anything but make Trudeau a scapegoat to install Carney.
As with Freeland’s letter, it all seemed highly coordinated.
What kind of win is this really though? This would be a win for PP and the conservatives. Great the NDP would have a new leader with a seat, maybe all other six people could join him in the corner.
In the last election the cons got 23.5% in this riding. In this poll they got 13.7%. How’s that them winning? Unless you believe that only Lewis would be this popular and this lead doesn’t translate in any NDP gains anywhere else. That remains to be seen but in my opinion Lewis beating this very popular PM without even being elected leader and without any general campaigning is a broader sign I think.
I’m sure you’re aware that splitting the left is often seen as a win for the right, and reasonably so given FPTP and the political aversion in this country to what should be (and are in other parliamentary democracies) acceptable democratic political maneuvering, such as forming coalitions and crossing the floor unimpeded.
You’re implying that the Liberals are left-wing
Omg face palm
That was a jet plane straight over your head, wasn’t it?!
Aware for sure, I have voted strategically in more than one election. I’m just surprised at seeing Lewis beating Carney as vote splitting. Sure if the Lewis : Carney : PP numbers were 30 : 35 : 35, then I would talk about vote splitting.
You pretty clearly aren’t aware. An NDP win here achieves literally nothing, and is actually a conservative win (a big one).
Maybe. I’m confused by what you’re saying. If perhaps you elaborate on why you believe this, I might be less confused.
E: Nevermind, I read your other comment. Not confused anymore. Thanks!
He’s just a “By voting 3rd party your wasting your vote” kinda guy.
No I’m a realist. Every MP seat that goes down from the Liberals makes the conservatives the more likely to gain the balance of power. It’s simple mathematics bud. I’m not an anything guy. I just don’t want the conservatives getting power, because I’m tired of the trash state of the world we find ourselves in.
In any other time, I’d be more for having the NDP gain some power. Now is not that time. They aren’t even an official party right now. What sort of illusion brings them to the forefront here, without handing the conservatives the reigns? Come to the realization that the NDP is probably 10+ years from coming close to a conversation again. I mean take that time and build something wonderful, I’m all for that. Just don’t be trying to fuck up this delicate balance of power we have right now.
For someone whos proporting to not shit talk third parties I suggest you proofread your comments. I can think of several instances where a party completely shit the bed and then went on to form a government. Kim Campbell springs to mind. All we need is a smart and capable leader of the NDP and for Carney to have some financial scandal or put troops in Iran. Canadian politics is far more interesting than your binary win/lose “realism”.
Kim Campbell took over leadership for the sitting government after the prime minister stepped down. She had government for like what, a hundred-some odd days? Then got completely owned in the election that followed. I think it was the worst defeat for a sitting government if I remember correctly, something like that.
The NDP has also never formed government at the federal level. So I’m really confused with where you are going with this…
I maybe need to proofread. But I also think you need to open a history book.
I mean this whole exercise is quite dumb. No political party other than the leader of the NDP is going to run their leaders in what’s probably the most extreme left wing riding in the country.
