Elections Alberta has approved the proposed referendum question, 'Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?'
About 30 per cent of Albertans support or somewhat support the idea of separation, while most do not. This figure fluctuates but hasn’t changed substantially since 2019.
The conclusion from our research is clear: the typical Albertan doesn’t want to separate but gets why others do. Supporting separatism isn’t mainstream, though being curious about it is. The bridge between those viewpoints is not a long one.
The number goes down below 10 when asked if they’d want to separate if the Conservatives had won the federal election. They’re just angy at the libs. When push comes to shove they will vote it down.
I’ve posted about this before, but I’ve been out with coworkers for a beer before and had the exact conversation on the “rest of Canada not caring” point about O&G jobs in Alberta. I’m originally from Ontario so I could chime in on that perspective for them.
The conversation was mostly geared towards them thinking the Albertan economy is “floating” the rest of Canada. When I brought up the size of Toronto and Montreal and the industries just in those two cities they brushed it off. So I took a different tactic, I started asking them if they cared about manufacturing jobs in Quebec, or fishery jobs in the maritimes or automotive jobs in Ontario. Unsurprisingly they said they didn’t know / care and that those jobs weren’t as numerous / important as O&G.
I ended it with saying, people care about Alberta as much as you care about Ontario, Quebec, BC, the Maritimes which is essentially zilch. I’m not sure if I got through to them but one guy actually said “somehow this seems worse”. I just said “really Alberta doesn’t register in most Canadians radars unless negatively”.
They also genuinely couldn’t understand why folks out east or in BC don’t want pipelines or further O&G investment in their provinces.
Referendums and the specific topic is a bit different. But I think looking at Trump and America should make people very wary of what having 30% of the population as fanatics can do.
I think the real reason the UCP leadership puts this kind of crazy stuff on the ballot is to make sure that 30% shows up to vote in force. If everyone else turns up to vote, or their base had a regular level of turnout, then they’d have no shot.
Elections have electoral districts, which is how first-past-the-post really does its damage, through gerrymandering and gaming the system for just enough votes in each district. Does the same hold true for a referendum or is that a simple tally of all provincial votes (ie, electoral districts don’t matter)
I was curious about how this will pan out, and found this:
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2025/11/05/Has-Alberta-Separatism-Gone-Mainstream-Common-Ground/
That is a terrifyingly high number if you ask me.
The number goes down below 10 when asked if they’d want to separate if the Conservatives had won the federal election. They’re just angy at the libs. When push comes to shove they will vote it down.
It gets more worrying
I would like to hear a firsthand experience on the last point however.
I’ve posted about this before, but I’ve been out with coworkers for a beer before and had the exact conversation on the “rest of Canada not caring” point about O&G jobs in Alberta. I’m originally from Ontario so I could chime in on that perspective for them.
The conversation was mostly geared towards them thinking the Albertan economy is “floating” the rest of Canada. When I brought up the size of Toronto and Montreal and the industries just in those two cities they brushed it off. So I took a different tactic, I started asking them if they cared about manufacturing jobs in Quebec, or fishery jobs in the maritimes or automotive jobs in Ontario. Unsurprisingly they said they didn’t know / care and that those jobs weren’t as numerous / important as O&G.
I ended it with saying, people care about Alberta as much as you care about Ontario, Quebec, BC, the Maritimes which is essentially zilch. I’m not sure if I got through to them but one guy actually said “somehow this seems worse”. I just said “really Alberta doesn’t register in most Canadians radars unless negatively”.
They also genuinely couldn’t understand why folks out east or in BC don’t want pipelines or further O&G investment in their provinces.
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Most of us anyway.
Referendums and the specific topic is a bit different. But I think looking at Trump and America should make people very wary of what having 30% of the population as fanatics can do.
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So, what about First Nations? Are you going to vote away their land??
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My friends in Alberta, are First Nations. And this was my first thought. We should send the people who want to be Americans, to America.
The separatists don’t concern themselves with “minor details” like that.
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I think the real reason the UCP leadership puts this kind of crazy stuff on the ballot is to make sure that 30% shows up to vote in force. If everyone else turns up to vote, or their base had a regular level of turnout, then they’d have no shot.
30% was all Dougie needed for a majority in Ontario…
Elections have electoral districts, which is how first-past-the-post really does its damage, through gerrymandering and gaming the system for just enough votes in each district. Does the same hold true for a referendum or is that a simple tally of all provincial votes (ie, electoral districts don’t matter)