- cross-posted to:
- technology@beehaw.org
- cross-posted to:
- technology@beehaw.org
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I have to be honest, as someone who is not fully immersed in the financial markets, the chart pattern reading kinda strikes me as astrology for guys in suits.
I feel this deep in my bones
astrology for guys in suits
Naw they already made that, it’s called the “Myers-Briggs Type Indicator”.
Different parts of astrology. The MBTI stuff replaces the horoscope/personality side of things, whereas chart reading replaces the future readings.
That’s for white girls on Hinge.
And apparently my team at work. It’s more of a curiosity (oh, you’re somewhat extroverted? Interesting!), and it gives us a chance to ask questions to get to know a new hire.
If you’re making actual decisions based on the MBTI test, then that’s on you. But it’s kinda fun to compare.
It’s used widely for actual hiring decisions. If you’re qualified for a job but they want an INTJ but you’re an ENTJ according the overgrown Facebook quiz, you get a rejection letter.
It’s unethical as fuck, and absolutely rampant in corporate America.
Now, as a team building exercise or role play to get to know potential clientele, yeah no harm.
Wow, really? We only do it like a couple weeks after hiring, and you can respectfully refuse. We just do it as a “get to know you” meeting so we can get the team familiar with the new hire.
Yeah, some employers are really stupid about it. They treat it like a crystal ball. I’m not an expert in psychology, so the best I got is second-hand insight, but one of the perks of working in a hospital is I get to routinely pick brains that are a lot smarter than mine, to include a couple of psych PhD’s: ask them about the Myers Briggs and they immediately start ranting about how it’s pseodo-science bullshit. And some doctors do rant about shit outside their scope of expertise, which pretty well puts them at the same level of idiocy as the rest of us (i.e., if your ortho doc starts raving about how vaccines cause autism, the MD on his badge carries literally zero weight: he knows the fuck out of bones, but until proven otherwise it’s best to assume he got his education on vaccines from Fox news). But when experts in psych bitch about psych stuff, I take that at face value.
I’m honestly surprised anyone puts any more weight into it than a conversion starter. Most of my team scores largely the same, yet each of us is very different in terms of work style. In fact, one of our introverts really likes direct collaboration, and one of our extroverts really doesn’t. It’s really not an indication of anything.
To a large extent it is, the major difference being that when people take actions based of these signs, it influences which way the chart goes next, unlike the planets, which do not care the slightest what people do based on their actions. Thus you can end up making a lot of money if your actions are 1) correctly anticipating subsequent actions by other people and 2) sufficiently in advance of other actions. Which makes inside trading and pump-and-dump schemes great ways to get filthy rich, if you find yourself in a position to be able to pull that off. Or if you are lucky. Or if you have made a name for yourself and everyone else just assume you know what you are doing and follows (Warren Buffet comes to mind).
That makes sense. Essentially, there are things that are influenced by perception and those that are immune to perception.
Yes, and by the sheer existence of the concept of a “death cross”, and now that it has happened for the Tesla stock, people will act as if whatever a “death cross” predicts will come to pass. So even though there was some correlation before someone formulated it as a concept, now the response will be different because people will act on it. If enough people believes it, it will probably just accelerate the process as they will seek to sell off before the downturn, pushing the prices down. Which is the way the Tesla stock should go, so I am all for this cross of death.
Warren Buffet comes to mind
But Warren Buffet does know what he’s doing. He doesn’t buy based on charts though, he buys based on fundamentals, and many of his bets take years to prove themselves.
I think this is more applicable to the vast swarms of YT influencers who push trading software. Get enough viewers and rent enough Lambos and people will think you know something. Or maybe even people like Jim Cramer, who has a mediocre success rate in his own trading firm, yet still has his picks get parroted because he has a TV show.
Don’t blindly buy stuff because someone else tells you to, or even because someone else does. Buy stuff because you know what you’re doing. If you don’t know what you’re doing (the vast majority of people), just buy diversified index funds. In the US, this means something like VTI and VXUS, or the various equivalents in various brokerages/retirement plans. That’s what I do, and I’ve had a pretty good experience so far, no experience reading tea leaves required.
Oh my God this is so f-ing true. It makes me think a lot of sociology classes I took in college where we’d talk about the artificiality of money how it’s only meaningful because we have collectively decided it is. The folks who try to make it all scientific with lots of elaborate analytics and complex charts are basically just engaging a social math exercise.
100% totally is.
As someone with an actual Econ degree:
… Yeah, a whole lot of ‘technical signals’ aka, chart reading that a lot of ‘retail’ (ie, amateur) day traders use… is basically astrology.
Its not quite as absolutely nonsensical as astrology, which is just absolutely 100% bullshit… like, a 50 MA crossing a 200 MA downward… definitely does indicate that stock is not having a great time right now… but as far as the “power” of such a signal to reliably indicate future trends?
No, basically no. There are some technical indicators that have a slightly higher correlation coefficient of being a reliable leading indicator, but the correlations are not really that strong… there are just way too many other confounding variables.
…
Even the quants who work for hedge funds… who use some of the most advanced and complex mathematical models in the world to try to untangle all of those confounding effects…
…well, they are on average, over a decently long timescale, no better, or even slightly worse than random chance at picking stocks, bonds, a portfolio that will grow more than just the average.
Part of this is because… if a technical trading strategy that actually works to generate outsized gains… is actually figured out by one of the big boy quants… the other big boy quants will notice this and reverse engineer it from analyzing what their rival is doing.
Then, once all the big boys are using the same strategy… well now it doesn’t return outsized gains anymore.
… Which is why all your 401ks are basically index funds for their stock component, which is just a weighted average basket of whichever particular market, usually the DJIA or SP500 as the Nasdaq is historically a bit more volatile.
…
Now, all that being said… one arguably ‘technical indicator’ that always has been correct in the last 100 years… is when the bond yield curve inverts… the economy and stock market generally suffer a downturn roughly proportional to the time and magnitude of the bond yield curve inversion… soon after or right as the bond yield curve uninverts.
Except for right now, the last few years.
We have now, in the last 4 or 5 years, had 3 periods of yield curve inversion, 2 uninversions… and the broader economy has technically not yet entered into a recession, a period of negative GDP growth.
But it looks like we are heading now for basically something akin to the Great Depression, as the latest inversion is pretty widely being interpreted as ‘investors no longer see the US Bonds as the defacto save haven, the USD as the defacto world currency’… which means the dollar will devalue as demand for it goes down… which means even if the tariffs went away and never came back, all our imports would be more expensive… and our exports won’t be worth as much… and our external debt to other countries will become even more onerous…
And we are kind of massively reliant on importing material things and exporting services or non physical ‘products’.
(Great work Mr. Trump -.-)
So… yeah you can’t really make a day trading strategy out of that.
…
Beyond all that, its probably also worth mentioning that GDP per capita is not a reliable measure of actual wellbeing of the population of a country when it has enormous wealth disparity.
No such thing as a death cross for a company that is now embedded at the highest level of the federal government. Don’t get too excited, ass hat and the swasticars aren’t going anywhere. If you havent dumped your Tesla yet, get fucked at this point.
There is only so much they can do to prop it up. If noone is buying them, and noone wants the stock, its going to go down short of the govt literally buying the stock and handing it over to musk.
That unfortunately would not surprise me. How sad.
Tesla could literally never sell another car again, and it wouldn’t matter as long as people continue to buy the stock.
It’s been wildly over priced for a very long time, so clearly the people who are keeping it afloat aren’t interested in whether the company is actually profitable or not.
I think those people were only buying and holding cause the stock price kept going up regardless of logic and reason. These people wanted to make money.
If they think they might lose money, I think they would probably sell.
That only goes so far. If the company ceases to exist because it cant pay its debts, its gonna get delisted from the exchange.
Til magically the government starts buying all its cars from them, and they start making tanks and drones for the military.
Was there not already some deal with the State Department for the purchase of “armored vehicles” from Tesla to the tune of 400 million USD? Or did I just hallucinate that?ETA: Apprently not true: https://www.snopes.com/news/2025/02/14/state-department-armored-teslas/
It’s not not true. Elon was going to do it, but it got attention and they had to back down. I’m sure they will do it again but more quietly and ramp it up slower to not catch as much flack.
Cyber truck USPS fleet vehicles.
I could see this administration contracting for 100k cybertrucks for the USPS right before shutting down the USPS.
SAD
Standard American Diet XD
Plenty of Teslas were bought before most people had any idea that Elon was a fascist sociopathic asshole. Not everyone who bought one can afford to just dump a functioning vehicle with shitty resale value. Anyways, we don’t really want to see every Tesla on the road retired at the same time, so somebody will be driving them.
Cybertrucks are a bit different in my estimation. Anyone who bought a Cybertruck should have known who they were buying it from. Those owners bought that car to signal something, and I think it’s fair to let them know that the signal was received.
Good points, but for most Tesla models at least I would argue that the people that can afford those can afford a lower than desirable resale value in order to not feel shitty about their daily drive. From what I can tell, it doesn’t really look like the used market for these has taken that hard of a hit either. Also, due the natural rapid depreciation of cars, it’s not something that waiting for bad press to blow over and having a slight increase on the demand side would be worth waiting for either. Would be interested in an anecdote if someone has one, but I’m not convinced right now it would be all that hard or financially damaging to sell your Tesla. At the very least debadge that heap, when I see that I like to think the owner is trying at least.
the people that can afford those can afford a lower than desirable resale value
You sound unfamiliar with the average American consumer. Americans tend to buy the most car they think they can afford. They also might have been counting on the fact that electric vehicles cost more up front, but return that value and then some the longer you drive it.
it doesn’t really look like the used market for these has taken that hard of a hit either.
If it does, I might go out and buy myself one. As I said before, we don’t want these vehicles to be retired before their time.
At the very least debadge that heap, when I see that I like to think the owner is trying at least.
I would definitely suggest that people do this, but I wouldn’t call it “the least”, at least in regards to owning a Tesla. Removing the badge is probably the most effective thing they can do. That stuff gets noticed and has an impact. If they sell the car, it will just be bought by someone else and continue to be a billboard for Elon. I see a lot of Teslas in my area and have been looking for badge removals or “Elon bad” bumper stickers, and so far have just seen one without badges.
I dumped mine, originally was estimated to be a $92 fee or something to walk away from the lease.
Just found out a couple of days ago they’re charging me every fee under the sun. Now they want $4000. Have to put it on a credit card. It royally sucks, but I’m still glad I ditched it.
The fact it’s still at $250 per share as of writing this is still alarming af.
Yeah, it’s absurd.
- The CEO is nearly universally reviled.
- They have the worst build quality of any vehicles sold in the USA.
- They are notoriously unsafe.
- They had to stop selling Cybertrucks because they had 8 recalls in a row and are literally held together with glue
- They were just hit with the most expensive recall of all time on their self driving bullshit.
- They are underwater in Europe & China.
- I probably have forgotten something.
The earnings call on the 22nd should be very interesting.
They steal from OpenSource, they’re a privacy nightmare ?
I wish the market actually gave a shit about those things.
People only seem to when things go tits up. Like “I guess I should have read the boat safety manual because now I’m stuck out at sea, fuck.”
If we didn’t let greed win at every turn, maybe we wouldn’t be in this state.
You forgot:
- Caught numerous times deliberately misleading the public about build quality, safety, and features (current and upcoming).
- Bizarre ergonomics that contravene many existing safety standards (e.g., the brake lights on the Cybertruck).
- CEO uses his influence for stock manipulation, regularly
- Notorious racist corporate culture that also denigrates women and other ethnicities
- 99% of their profits come from the resale of carbon credits. They have only made a profit off cars for roughly 2-3 quarters in their history of existence.
I’m sure I’m forgetting a bunch of other stuff.
Edit: Here’s one right off the press, still hot: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2025/04/tesla-makes-its-cars-lie-about-their-mileage-lawsuit-claims/ 😆 🤦♂️
Well, in Canada they got caught faking last-minute sales for EV rebates, which might trigger closer scrutiny in other places as well
How do we have different bullet points on our lists?
I’m using Voyager they both look the same to me. I don’t know how this client sends posts. I used a simple dash before each new line and it auto completed to a list.
Interesting, I used the list button on the web based editor.
I would like to remind everyone, as people seem to keep forgetting, Tesla means nothing to Elon. It could go to zero and it wouldn’t affect him.
Twitter, or X, means nothing to Elon. It could collapse and shut down and it wouldn’t affect him.
SpaceX is his baby. Nothing even comes close. Starlink alone guarantees he will always be one of the richest men in the world.
That’s a testable hypothesis: burn Tesla, Twitter, SpaceX etc to the ground. We can measure his reaction to each, and compare.
No, he cares for Twitter.
SpaceX lets him pretend he’s some great tech genius, but Twitter is what gives him the validation he craves. All the pro-Elon bots and stans there who fellate him feed his narcissistic desire to be loved.
That’s why he “sold” Twitter to xAI. So if Tesla does tank hard enough and he gets margin called, he can’t be forced to sell Twitter to cover it.
If Elon is such a genius, let’s see him stream Kerbal Space Program. I would love to see him get to Mun and back.
Given his track record with real rockets and real rocket scientists, I would consider it a win for him to make it off the launchpad and back in one piece. 😂
Now this is a stream I would enjoy watching. I have the KSP platinum on PS4, I know exactly how difficult this is.
In fact, since it’s his big fantasy, let’s see a Duna return trip.
he can’t be forced to sell Twitter to cover it
realistically, if that were to happen, any other company interested in an acquisition would have valued it pennies on the dollar
Tesla means nothing to Elon.
Then why did he ask Trump to shill Teslas for him? He definitely cares, for narcissistic ego reasons if not financial ones.
It could go to zero and it wouldn’t affect him.
He leveraged his Tesla stock to buy Twitter. If the stock drops below a certain price, the banks will confiscate the stock. If it’s not enough to cover, they’ll confiscate Twitter.
But maybe I’m wrong. I would love to find out either way.
That’s why he “sold” Twitter to xAI. It’s no longer “his”, so he can’t be forced to sell it. Loopholes within loopholes, it’s the billionaire way.
That’s fine, let’s still take down Tesla for good measure
Not exactly I’m pretty sure he’s using his stocks as collateral for lots of stuff.
He’s a huge buy, borrow, die financial strategy guy.
I hear what you are saying, but I still like to see Nazis hurt.
Let’s make Tesla a penny stock.
Yup, this is why we need to either nationalize Starlink or just shut it down completely. This isn’t something a single private company should have control of.
the dreaded “death cross,” a historical indicator of a likely downturn for the company
[…] occurs when a company’s 50-day moving average crosses and drops below the 200-day average.
Fuck Tesla and all that, but holy shit is that standard ever a depressing indicator of to just how reliant late stage capitalism is on endless growth that a tiny dip after half a year of stagnation is a reliable indicator of a company’s imminent failure.
Yes. But didn’t the entire stock market (SPY) do the same thing on the daily chart?
But if they specifically call out Tesla, they get more clickbait engagement, plus it now qualifies as a tech story! Double win!
"…the dreaded “death cross,” a historical indicator of a likely downturn for the company.
"Business Insider called out the event, which has been hitting the stock indexes of some major players over the last couple of weeks as tariff trouble has hit just about everyone. Tesla is just the latest to see the symbol of bearishness, which occurs when a company’s 50-day moving average crosses and drops below the 200-day average.x
Here’s how it looks all time
I checked and TSLA is still up from where it was 6 and 12 Months ago, how is it in a death cross?
Unfortunately the stock seems fine to my.
it’s just a moving average cross. 50 day MA moves below 200 MA, that’s it. Can be a bearish sign but I’ve seen it bounce in this moment a bunch of times.
But technical analsyis is just drawing imaginary lines on a chart, they know nothing about how stupid Trump and Musk are so it might very well be bearish. At least I hope so. I want to see him get margin called at 114$ or so they say.
Technical analysis is where gambler’s fallacy meets self-fulfilling prophecy. Though other forces are also in play.
Yup. It’s back to roughly October levels, like the rest of the S&P 500.
Death crosses are bullshit chartist woo.
Anything new mentioned in this article?
:)
Good. Fuck elon and his shitty toy cars.
