It can go one of a few ways.
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Apart from the few subs that remain offline, it’ll basically be back to normal. Those that do remain offline indefinitely just get forcibly reopened or recreated by admins, especially huge subreddits like /r/videos. Smaller ones just get redicted to /r/topicnew or some other creative name.
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A lot of subreddits and more importantly moderators and users leave the site permanently. In order for this to happen however, there’d have to be a consensus alternative, which there isn’t ATM. Otherwise, these communities are pretty much lost forever unless the mods put a message to go to X alternative service in the “subreddit is private” banner. Tbh, I don’t think people are gonna stomach losing years of their lives in an instant so they’ll just re create subreddits unless the mods provide an alternative.
No matter what though, they’re not backing down on the effective removal of the API (still leaving the sneaky clause “you can pay us if you want but it’ll be a king’s ransom” for AI, even though they can just trawl the web manually lol). They’ll probably announce some crappy customization features to hoodwink those who don’t know what an API is and lie to them and say it’s “API v2” or whatever.
I just honestly don’t know how it’s going to shake out and I’m scared im going to lose these communities. I don’t give a single solitary fuck about Reddit the company anymore, and I never did really. I just hope all of the subreddits find a new home and don’t just shrug their shoulders and say “welp, guess that’s it guys”.
If it’s like mastodon, most people will get bored and move back to reddit. Lemmy will grow marginally, and be more ready for the next stress test.
There will be other reddit outrages after the ipo, and lemmy will be more ready for migration. Repeat. Hopefully there’s a critical mass one day, but there’s no guarantee.
I think we’ll see a temporary “return to normalcy” after the protest finishes and most subs come back online. But come June 30 and the end of third-party apps, we’ll see a bunch of users come back to Lemmy/Kbin again.
In a way, this seems like the best way of driving things. The protest has raised awareness and got a ton of development work going, and then there’s going to be a respite giving instances time to prepare themselves for the second surge.
I think we’ll see a temporary “return to normalcy” after the protest finishes and most subs come back online. But come June 30 and the end of third-party apps, we’ll see a bunch of users come back to Lemmy/Kbin again.
Knowing corporate, reddit is playing good cop/bad cop with app devs right now. Apollo and RIF had huge targets on their backs for being popular, profitable, and developers who aren’t afraid to speak out.
meanwhile over at baconreader there has been radio silence from the devs, largely because i think they are cutting a deal with reddit for a much better rate in return for knuckling under. pricing terms of course will be under a NDA
you cant really return to normalcy from this, but i dont think most users care. whenever i get into a casual convo about the fediverse online, the general consensus from people is ‘yeah reddit isnt going to die, i’ll stay on reddit for my communities’. so if the majority think reddit isn’t going to die and continue using the site, it probably wont die! it’ll just go back to normal with a few million less users (which actually isnt that much for a big site) unless spez hilariously fucks up
really the fediverse is just a lot of people who like tech at the end of the day, not the average web user
Unfortunately yeah :/ a few people I’ve talked to support the blackout but have never heard of Lemmy or the fediverse and presumably have no alternative
I agree, we’re getting an insane amount of hate on our sub for remaining restricted indefinitely. The general users do not seem to care about 3rd party apps or that Reddit can just bend us over at any time.
The concerning part will be what nonsense gets shoved into their apps in order to earn that discount. I’m guessing loads of ads and trackers under Reddits control.
For me, it’s no more reddit on mobile but I’m not blocking it any time soon. If it’s a Google result, so be it, there’s still useful content over there.
This is what most people fail to understand. The information that has amassed on Reddit is important, yet they turn so much of it to private, some indefinitely. A proper solution would be to permanently be read-only, and have it be very easy to see “hey, new posts are now on Lemmy, feel free to post there” so that you have a permanent cripple to Reddit’s userbase, and you don’t burn the library to “stick it to the man”.
I honestly hope that some kind of community remains here
Personally, I will only be going back to Reddit if I need help with some specific thing and I can’t find it in Lemmy anywhere. And only for that thread.
I think it’s a matter of communities. People would stay on Reddit because of top communities and top quality content made on those communities. As long we have some form of aggregations of users making great content here on Lemmy as well, we’re good imho.
I think you’re going to know by one metric. Quality of content over the next ~3 - 6 months. Whether subs stay or go is one thing, that’s been part of Reddit for the 12 years I used it. What would get folks to leave is when the communities they are interested in aren’t supplying content.
So if you lose some lurkers, that’s not gonna matter because they didn’t post anyways. If you start losing power users, who regularly feed your community content, what’s going to drive you to stick around? If you ask me, I think the fact we are even having this conversation means Reddit is losing in this equation.
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According to Reddit’s internal memo, they expect this to blow over Wednesday with most subreddits returning, and they reported no drop in revenue so far. So they’re not likely to give in yet.
What needs to happen is that the blackout needs to continue indefinitely, and more communities need to start migrating to lemmy/kbin. If we move the content here, people will move too.
I wish it would but we announced restricting indefinitely and we’re getting hate modmail, like a lot of it. And a shit ton of hate comments. Not a single comment yet in support.
Be the change and don’t back down
I can actually see plenty of people and communities permanently migrating over to Lemmy instances. Some are actually creating their very own federated Lemmy instances.
So now, for those who created their own instances, there will be no more censoring and imposing from a higher organization.
I don’t see why to not use Fediverse, Mastodon apps are great already, and Lemmy apps are getting updated and improved as we speak.
Yes, the web front-end still needs work, and yes, Lemmy still lacks in some features, but that is being worked on as we speak, and I believe that some of the users migrating over, are devs, that will actually help to improve Lemmy, which is Open Source. So, if there’s a feature you’d like Lemmy to have, just open a Pull Request!
It would not crash and burn but rather be messy and decrease in quality gradually over time. Sort of like Twitter.
I think no matter what Reddit won’t be exactly the same. The smaller the community the bigger the impact.
I’ve just resigned myself to needing to make a big change.
Same. I’m done just being a content/ad zombie for them
Reddit was never going to just shut down overnight, but it’s more or less done for me (barring some sudden change with the API stuff, but even then I’d make an effort to use it less). I’ll keep my account around and might occasionally go to it to look up specific things or visit more niche communities that don’t have much of a presence here or on other alternatives yet, but I’m done with just generally browsing reddit or providing any content for them. I’m enjoying it here and hope the boost in activity allows for continued growth and filling out of communities for more specific topics.
I mean, if the quality of content on the site currently is any indication of how things will look like going forward, I think maybe ditching reddit will be easier than I thought. it’s wayyyyyyy more reactionary than usual, though I think there’s some 4chan-originated pot-stirring going on. still though, it’s not a pleasant place to be right now.
Squabbles seems to have not hit user critical mass. Tildes looks like it’s doing well.
The Lemmy + Kbin fediverse seems to be taking off like a rocket and has the best overall chance IMO of becoming the home for the best parts of Reddit’s community.
I want to add, that my wife has been a “scab” throughout all this and has been active on reddit, trying to show me memes and such.
The content she’s been showing me has been stale, old stuff I saw back in 2020. Same recycled jokes, same memes. Reddit is in a mode of hard cope right now and I doubt it gets better if we don’t return.
For the first 12 hrs or so it was just a bunch of as reddit posts. Like 20 pages of it and a few political
A return to normality is impossible since there will be no more third party apps. It may seem like things are as they were besides that, but the progressive move by Reddit to ignore Reddit’s core value proposition (link aggregation and commenting) will continue, only to be replaced by attention towards monetisation-centric features no one asked for like NFTs & followers (which the third party apps ignored, gee I wonder why).
Reddit has a cancer. You can either stay in denial and experience the terminal death in slow, painful motion, or you can just move on now.
