- cross-posted to:
- technology@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- technology@lemmy.world
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His juvenile enthusiasm for the letter X is so ten-year-old boy with sunglasses.
“X” is also 88 in ASCII. 88 is a Nazi reference to “heil hitler”. Big surprise.
Coincidence? I think not!
I did not know these things, but makes sense…
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Just confirming Xitter is pronounced “shitter” right?
I made this one. Thanks for the compliment! 😅
Edit: btw proudly made in GIMP!!
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using AI hype to finance X loans?
Correct.
It’s actually a smart move.
The dumb money are those pouring hundreds of billions into the AI hype. This is .com bubble on steroids.
And sure, AI obviously is becoming an important market, but it will not be the current leaders who will dominate the tech. Like the internet, it’s just too easy to catch up for competitors. Pouring $100B into AI today will only mean you lose out to the $1B startup in 2 years. The incumbents will go broke.
The incumbents will go broke.
Can’t wait! Gonna stock up on some popcorn lmao
And toilet paper. For whatever reason.
The incumbents will go broke.
Who do you mean with that? Companies like OpenAI or Anthropic, or do you also include the likes of Google/Amazon/Microsoft?
With the former I can see it, but the later also profit from providing the infrastructure (and have other profitable business), so imo those will be just fine.
I definitely see Google/Amazon/Microsoft shedding a huge amount of market cap when the time comes to write-off the 100s of billions they invested the past two years.
They just don’t have any feasible path to recouping those investments.
Sure, they’ll never go fully broke, that’s just a nice word for emphasis.
I actually think Google is going to win this one, they’re the only ones making their own hardware to run their own models. Open ai are starting down that road but they’re years behind.
When you look at the pricing of all the AI companies, Google’s is so much cheaper (orders of magnitude) and they’re not having to pay Nvidia billions to do it.
I actually agree with you, they definitely have the edge, but I still am skeptical that they will be able to maintain their valuation.
I just don’t see a world where most people are coughing up more than $10 a month for AI.
Most people will only use free AI and companies will mostly buy cheap AI.
Running Deepseek locally is basically free. That’s the competition.
As i understand it most of the money they are investing goes into new datacenters. So when a model gets outdone by a new one they still have those, unlike e.g. OpenAI that use other companies resources (i think microsoft and oracle mostly?). In a way companies that use those external clouds to train their own models are financing the investments needed for the big players.
AWS, GCP and Azure are all growing 30%+ yoy, are profitable and if anything supply constraint in that they can’t build more capacity fast enough to meet demand. So it seems to me that to some degree they are already recouping some of those investments. I don’t see a drop in demand for compute, and even if using/training ai would become less resource intensive, Jevons paradox would just lead to more demand.
Of course they also burn a lot of money as anytime a new model gets trained and beats the older ones, it kind of renders the resources spend on the previous one worthless. But to me that seems like the cost of doing business.
The current investments they can afford. What would actually lead to shedding huge amounts of marketcap is, if they’d let a rival establish themselves. Similar to how the movie studios didn’t get into streaming early (mostly to not hurt their cable business) and gave Netflix enough time to establish themselves.
To comment on something you mentioned in another reply below:
I just don’t see a world where most people are coughing up more than $10 a month for AI.
I think the big money will be in the business world, where salaries for actual people are high enough that saving a person even a few hours/week or replacing a single employee saves so much money that even expensive subscriptions would easily be worth it.
On the consumer side as you say running smaller models locally will likely be the norm. But that means it would be free for both the likes of Deepseek and Google. And then it’ll just come down to who has access to personal information and is better embedded, which would be likely be whoever also controls other aspects of a users life, such as Goole with Android, gmail etc. Money here will be made just as it is done with other free services.
You could have made this same analysis in 2000 and it would be equally valid.
Yes, the business world is willing to pay big bucks to reduce labour costs and that business case is solid.
But we already see that success is not determined by the size of the model, but by the data and providing and processing that data in a smart way to the AI. And the companies that are successful in this area are model agnostic. They can, and will, switch to cheaper to run models that are good enough for their purposes.
So the dogma that whoever has the biggest model wins, just doesn’t apply. AI is already hitting diminishing returns.
Once the investment money pumping the hype is gone, there will be a glut of capacity and a heavy price competition, which will drive down margins.
Is this so the loans secured with X stock can’t be called in, forcing Elon to sell the collateral to pay back the loan?
Sure seems like a bullshit business move to retain control of Tesla.
X is a private company, there’s no stock. It was secured with Tesla stock.
So the bullshit machinery is now AI driven bullshit machinery. What if AI finds it too vile and deletes itself.
So hell get taxed for exchange of speculative assets right?.. Right?!
No because it’s a loss, so he’ll actually get 10bln in tax credit
The combination values xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion ($45B less $12B debt)
Lol, he actually think the value of Shitter is still $45B, as when he bought it. That’s cute.
If I recall, fidelity wrote off most of its investment in twitter less than a year after the acquisition: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2024/09/30/elon-musks-x-is-now-worth-around-a-fifth-of-the-44-billion-he-paid-for-it-fidelity-says/
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For reference, he bought it for $44B.
https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk
Are the authorities aware? It’s very illegal to sell exctacy in the US.
$33 billion, 3/4 what it was valued in 2022 when he bought it.
Honestly I’m surprised it’s still worth that much. (or rather, that’s he’s succeeded in claiming it’s worth that much).
You have to remember that he wasn’t alone in purchasing twitter. He brought others along with him. Now that value of twitter has gone down the tube, I’m sure he’s got a ton of unhappy investors on his hand screaming at every quarter’s results. He’s trying to recoup what they paid for by giving them shares in AI company. And in turn artificially raise the value of the AI company privately as well. It establishes a benchmark for AI company’s valuation for later private investors into that company.
xAI has raised maybe $12B from investors. And, supposedly, makes $100M/yr.
The valuations are absurd.
It dropped a lot lower than that but spiked back up once he became the leader of America
This might have the opposite effect he wants, xAI investors no longer have a clean AI investment and are now linked to a failing social media platform.
xAI is already losing bigtime vs other AI companies, this just makes it even less attractive.
Phew. Just in time to avoid fraud charges on the loan.
I keep wondering what Elon wanted with all of our information from the government. He has who we are, our relatives, our net worth, where we live and have lived. Now he’s probably going to feed it into his AI. Why though?
Behavioral predictions. Squash any dissent before it starts. Welcome to the world of precrime.
I’m surprised the Twitter investors would approve this. Their worthless Twitter stock is now worthless xAI stock. How does that help them?
I guess they’ll try to take xAI public with a massively overpriced IPO.
I am more surprised xAI investors approved. Especially for such a high price.
Twitter actually imo had (and still has) quite a bit of value, but that is only to further Elons ideological goals. As a business it is on a downward trend and was never a cash cow to begin with. Comparatively little room for speculation. It’s a stagnating or declining business and doesn’t generate large profits if any.
xAI on the other hand is pretty much in the same spot as most other ai companies. It has yet to prove to be a highly profitable business, but there is plenty of room for speculation. So as long as the bubble doesn’t burst, it has a high valuation.
Which is all that would matter for any Twitter investor that wants to unload his shares. Although I doubt it would be via ipo, but rather in private funding rounds.
The whole point of buying Twitter was to take it private. IPO for xAI would hilariously undo that.
Xitter investors got scammed and there was no way that xitter would be able to pay 1 billion per year in interest. Better having someone else holding the bag
