“I expect a semi-dystopian future with substantial pain and suffering for the people of the Global South,” one expert said.
There is no ceiling. It might go up 6 or 7C. The people who have the power to change things do not give a shit if the rest of us die. They don’t care, and they won’t change anything. That’s the world we live in.
4C is basically Mad Max breakdown of society. Problem is self-correcting after that.
If there are survivors, they will be the dicks. Nature is heartless and unforgiving. It is truly survival of the fittest.
They (selfishly) believe that allowing the problem to flourish is what will get us to solve it.
They’re not wrong. There’s just way better, more humane approaches.
So you’re mostly right. Because they know they have the wealth to weather the discomfort in comfort. But it is accurate that humans historically are fucking aces at reacting and kinda piss poor at proacting.
Yes, they are wrong. Because we don’t know if there are positive feedback loops that will take us beyond survivable temperatures once we’ve crossed an invisible line.
Even the ultra-rich won’t survive +5C because the entire concept of “wealth” falls apart when society does.
Oh, you’re hot? Return to work. Our buildings are kept cool for your convenience! 😈
That’s the next play
uh no florida has already made the next play, and it was to repeal all protections for outdoor workers against the elements
in other words the next move is literally “Fuck you, die”, apparently, so, good to know we’re past the bullshit and can get on with actually solving the problem properly.
I mean they might care when billions of people try migrating in to more northern countries.
As a citizen of one of those “more Northern countries”, that is one of the things that concerns me.
Same. England for me, but I think it’ll bother the people in power who abhor people migrating and also deny climate change or at the least taking adequate action to mitigate the effects / affects (which is it).
Edit: The interweb says its effect.
Not really. Economies started to slow down and crash when warming gets over 2°C and CO2 production crashes with it.
Finally some good news on the climate. Our ability to fuck the Earth will mostly go away when our civilization collapses. We might even get a second Genghis Khan cooling when everyone dies.
There is a problem of lag. By the time temperatures are high enough to force the economy to stop, the amount of CO2 will be sufficient to continue pushing the temperature up considerably.
The problem is that feedback loops start to kick in above 2°C so it doesn’t matter if the economy crashes.
In fact, in some cases that makes things even worse. One example is that without smokestacks and ships pumping out sulfur dioxide the albedo of the atmosphere will rapidly drop, which might cause immediate and rapid warming over a period of only a few years.
We could be pushed past 2.5°C or even 3°C without industrial forces contributing at all.
Not if, when
The Global South? Those people aren’t going to lay down and die. They’re gonna climb North, as they should. And then we’re gonna have to decide whether to shoot people approaching the borders or accept a huge population influx. Given our political reality, I think there’s a good chance we try the first option at first.
“I think we are headed for major societal disruption within the next five years,” Gretta Pecl of the University of Tasmania told The Guardian. “[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme event after extreme event, food production will be disrupted. I could not feel greater despair over the future.”
But, reason to keep fighting:
Others found hope in the climate activism and awareness of younger generations, and in the finding that each extra tenth of a degree of warming avoided protects 140 million people from extreme temperatures.
People will be fleeing famine, uninhabitable areas, rising sea levels and wars. The areas that can support life will grow smaller, more valuable and crowded.
Will we be assholes if when this happens we be like. WE FUCKING TOLD YOU THIS WOULD HAPPEN, but y’all more concerned with arguing over pronouns and protests (I support both).
I mean the ones that think that trans people shouldn’t have human rights also tend to be the ones who don’t believe in climate change so…
so ____ all conservatives for the sake of humanity. i’ve been saying this for decades.
Given that they’re anti-humanity, it seems like a logical step.
it is.
Lol ook.
hear hear! please stop fighting over the petty things and get to work on the things that matter. electing a president that will fight climate change is far more important than what happens in the middle east.
I get your frustration. I feel it myself. Still, I fear, calling people assholes won’t be helpful and prevent folks from admitting they did wrong. At the same time, it can always get worse (hotter) and I think it would be best to win as many people over as possible, to do the right thing.
I don’t know. We’re fucked anyway, I guess.
stop worrying about being polite and start attacking the root of the problem - conservatives.
Yes yes, suddenly we shouldn’t mock because it’s unhelpful…not see through at all.
mocking is pointless. most conservatives don’t care if you mock them. neutralizing their threat to democracy is the answer.
We’ve tried nothing and we’re all out of options.
I have a postmortem science degree, but hobby in studying paleontology/pre-history. It took a rise of only 10°C and excess pollution to wipe out over 83% of all life on the planet between the Permian and Triassic eras. Entire chains of life just wiped out. Carbon dating, sediment layer study, fossil records, they all show how screwed me are if we keep this up. The earth will survive, it always does, but it took 30 million years before life recovered.
Humans need to learn from the past, see the consequences of what most would think is a small change, but the ones in power don’t seem to give a shit.
Could you help me understand how we differentiate the latest warming temperatures being related to climate change and not just another period like the one you mentioned?
To be clear, I fully believe that climate change is real, but sometimes when discussing it with people they will be of the camp that things are cyclical and just natural. I want to better arm myself for these arguments.
Mass extinction events have a cause. The Permian/Triassic one I mentioned, is generally agreed to be from unusual movement of earth’s crust, creating severe volcanic activity. The eruptions caused CO2 and pollution, meaning greenhouse gasses built up. The heat shifted water currents and the temperatures, mixed with acid rain, decimated life in the oceans.
Humans are basically the volcanoes in modern times. Yes, the earth goes through normal changes, but these temperatures are increasing at a speed that, to my knowledge, has never happened. There is a way of teaching kids about how long the earth’s had life, that visualizes it pretty well. If all of earth’s history were to fit on your arm, shoulder to fingertips, if you gently scratched your fingernail on something rough, you’d erase all of humankind. We have barely existed on earth, but are throwing it off balance like never before. (With the exception of the meteor that killed the dinosaurs, but that’s a whole other tangent)
Having taken years of pathology/physiology classes, it really feels like the earth is a body, and it’s getting a fever to try and deal with an illness… us.
Lmk if you need any sources. I can’t exactly copy my books or the ones from my old college’s libraries, but there’s plenty of studies/resources out there if you’re nerdy enough to dig 😊 (fossil pun)!
Mass extinction events have a cause. The Permian/Triassic one I mentioned, is generally agreed to be from unusual movement of earth’s crust, creating severe volcanic activity.
I think you’d get your point across even better with less understatement.
Let’s put it this way: by “severe volcanic activity,” what you really mean is that an area roughly the size of Europe was buried half a kilometer deep in lava!
We have barely existed on earth, but are throwing it off balance like never before. (With the exception of the meteor that killed the dinosaurs, but that’s a whole other tangent)
I think we may very well be on par with the meteor, TBH. Especially in the worst-case emission scenario.
(Speaking of the K-Pg meteor, another large igneous province, similar to but smaller than the one at the P-T boundary, was basically the “exit wound” of that meteor impact. It could very well be that the P-T extinction was caused the same way, but all evidence of the crator would have been obliterated by subduction over the past 250 MY because the antipode of Siberia back then would’ve been somewhere in the middle of the Panthalassic Ocean. Edit: I take that back; turns out there is some evidence for it that managed to survive, so that’s neat.)
Thank you for adding more information. I love reading more about this stuff. It would make sense if a meteor was related to the P-T volcanic activity. It would easily have enough force to mess with the crust of the earth.
but the ones in power don’t seem to give a shit.
Conservatives also don’t give a shit.
I think they give a shit.
Enjoyment counts as giving a shit.
Let’s stop climate change!
Let’s stop it at 1 degree!
Let’s stop it at 1.5 degrees
Okay, we might get to 2.5 degrees, but the economy!
This will go on until we get to around 5 degree and most parts of the world have become uninhabitable and most animals and vegetation has gone extinct and we’ve locked ourselves in perpetual wars due to water and food shortages. Sounds like a shitty B movie, but this is what I truely believe we will end up with.
If it makes you feel any better, once it gets that bad, society will eventually break down and our CO2 levels will naturally return to normal over the next several centuries while the Earth is reclaimed by nature as we go extinct.
yay
Finally some good news
I’m hopeful economies and governments will collapse before 3 degrees and measures will be put in place. I’m not extrapolating a utopian future. Before we get to the point where the world reacts, there will be many wars, migration and fascism. But as it gets worse, I’m hopeful groups will work together and fight for a better future.
Nah, what will happen is that said incompetent governments will be replaced by incompetent dictatorships that will just tell people over the barrel of a gun that things are better now.
A nuclear winter will cool things off quite a bit.
Sounds like a shitty B movie, but this is what I truely believe we will end up with.
And we’ll deserve every bit of it.
I read this headline and think, “this will happen and still nothing will be done.”
There was a powercut this week in a large part of Mexico (I know because of family from there). They’re getting rarer now as Mexico has really tried to get its grid uptogether. The downside of countries like this having more stable grids is more people and business installing aircon systems, which just means more energy used, more emissions.
The funny thing is there are ways to passively cool areas. You can literally install shading over windows and walls that face the main sun. Last year in the UK we had a few days where it was over 35C. Nobody here has aircon. So that heat is a shock to us. But I managed to cover the outside of open windows with reflective bubble wrap insulation cut into sheets.
I also installed a small solar system on our shed to run a fridge freezer out there. The funny thing is the half inch stand-offs actively created significant shading and the inside of the shed really cooled down to where we could sit in there and chill out or do tasks without melting. When I realised this I started looking online for research on solar power and shading and found agrovoltaics. Solar panels over farm crops such as fruit in hotter regions mean less watering needed… its more spread out than usual solar farms as it has to let the sun in a bit more to the food but its something that needs to be done more.
I also read of people ignoring their energy policy for their home electric and installing grid-tie solar. They use sheds, stands in their garden, conservatory roofing etc, and usually just a few hundred watts of solar. Typically homes have a fuse rating of 30-50 amps. One 300w solar panel grid tied is not going to be anywhere near that, but will mean up to 300w of clean energy. Energy companies should just allow these systems, even provide them if its a problem or worry to them. You can buy this stuff off amazon for a few hundred quid.
Haha and Italy just banned agrovoltaics!
Perfect place for it too. All those grapes will be sour.
Isn’t the opposite? Only agrovoltaic (panels at least 2 meters over crops) is allowed
Also, and it’s kinda insane to me that not more people do this: just grow any plant on the sides of your house. If you are worried about your walls build a cheap metal fence a few centimetres before that wall. It’s the cheapest insulation you can get.
Wild wine, ivy, anything that will climb and live more than a year would work.
it’s the same in vietnam, where it reaches 40c. many do not use ac
Mexico City is having water issues.
I remember being there in 2013 and the rivers and streams were all dried up. They were quite worried about farming.
What do you mean no one has an aircon in the UK? I have. Plenty of my friends have them as well.
I have a small unit too, but we’re the rare ones. “Nobody” means “majority” here or do I really have to be literal wth everyone on the internet???
I have a small unit too
Haha!
Its how you use it. 😉
Bit of a misdirect in the headline. This was not primarily a scientific projection. This was a political reckoning by scientists who had recently suffered the bureaucratic pain of serving on the IPCC, and voluntarily responded to a survey.
As one climate scientist put it:
“As many of the scientists pointed out, the uncertainty in future temperature change is not a physical science question: It is a question of the decisions people choose to make,” Texas Tech University climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe wrote on social media. “We are not experts in that; And we have little reason to feel positive about those, since we have been warning of the risks for decades.”
Change never comes from politicians first, but these are people who are zoomed in on whether politicians are changing their minds.
They’re not going to change their minds slowly over time. It’s gonna be nothing at all until the electorate is too loud to ignore, and then suddenly 100% of officials will claim they’ve “always condemned fossil fuels”, “from day one”, and “in the strongest terms possible”.
We’ve seen time and again that policy changes tend to bubble just below the surface for long time and then suddenly emerge with multiple changes happening in quick succession.
I was of voting age when just saying the word “civil union” in the context of gay rights was political suicide, and I’m not that old. Things can change quickly. Keep your hope alive and keep agitating. We can do this.
We’re close to blowing past 1.5c
I think we’ll blow past 2.5c
I think we’ll be looking back, waving longingly to the incredible hulk ending song, to 5c
Because the world doesnt exist to serve the 8 billion humans. It exists to serve a few thousand rich and business owners. . which means as long as there is profit to be had, the killing of the planet and the population will continue not only at pace, but ever accelerating
Seems low.
22% of climate scientists are likely funded by big oil. The other 1% are just normal stupid.
I can see some climate scientists just saying that 2.5C won’t be as dire as others predict without being stupid or paid off. There are often contrarians and sometimes (not often, but sometimes) they can be right, so it’s healthy to have them even when there is broad consensus. It’s how we came to accept ideas like plate tectonics.
So sure, maybe some of them are paid off (I doubt any of them are stupid since they have scientific degrees), but maybe some of them just disagree about the predictions for whatever semi-legitimate or maybe even legitimate reason and that’s fine. It’s worth exploring why just in case they could be right. The thing is, they’re scientists who are dissenting, not just some random guy on Facebook, which is why it’s worth exploring them.
There’s definitely some in there that think 2.5C is optimistic.
To be fair we don’t know what the bottom climate scientists think. They be closer to 100%.
we need some people, either hacking or inside job, setting the temperature in all conference rooms used by any politicians worldwide 2.5 degrees C higher than normal.
More like +10.5°C in room A and -8°C in room B.
Fun fact: a lot of mining companies have been incorporating climate change projections into their closure plans for years now, using RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Hey, we are using a thermal cover to make sure this gargantuan pile of mine waste rock doesn’t cause metal leaching/acid rock drainage issues later on: we’d better over-engineer it to take on higher-than expected warming, given that we’ll be liable for it for the next 100+ years
It’s certainly interesting, but I feel mostly sad thinking that it’s just BAU for everyone, even when everything is dying. Such a great example of it.
I ‘like’ the part where they acknowledge and plan for it yet everyone is still squabbling about if it’s even happening
I’m only horrified for all the non-human life we’re continuing to decimate on the way out.
Humans don’t even seem to tolerate one another as we recklessly decimate this world with technologies we’re just smart enough to develop and then immediately use with the same consideration for consequences as a monkey being handed a loaded shutgun, supposedly in humanity’s name.
You want us to survive so we can keep a perpetual underclass subsisting in misery? So we can point fingers and call this group and that nation and this gender and that race the problem over and over and over? We are the problem, sorry. Long term, our self-destruction will be a W for the Earth. It will take millions of years, but our mother will eventually clean up our mess we left behind, and continue on like we never existed.
And from my perspective and decades of observation, that is for the best, including for our “everything will be great, once those humans I don’t like are shown their place” in perpetuity species.
