Europe’s security is “at a turning point”, the president of the European Commission has said, as leaders from major European powers prepared to meet in Paris for emergency talks on their role in an eventual ceasefire in Ukraine.
After last week’s shock move by the US to sideline Kyiv and its European backers from peace negotiations, Ursula von der Leyen said the issue was “about Ukraine – but also about us. We need an urgency mindset. We need a surge in defence. And we need both of them now.”
The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, echoed her sentiments, telling reporters before heading to the French capital: “This isn’t just about the frontline in Ukraine. It’s the frontline of Europe and of the UK. It’s about our national security.”
Starmer added: “We need to step up in terms of our collective response in Europe. And by that, I mean capability, by that I mean playing our full part when it comes to the defence of the sovereignty of Ukraine if there’s a peace agreement.”
“European leaders” operate under a permanent disadvantage because they have to agree among themselves to do anything. This leaves them unable to take the initiative geopolitically, and prone to taking whatever’s the path of least resistance lying before them. The US and Russia have concluded that Europe will roll over and accept whatever they are presented with, after some angsty wailing, and unfortunately they are probably right. Not inviting Europe to talks is just a dominance move showing that they know the Europeans can’t do anything about it.
Unfortunately for Europe, this is just the logical end point of their institutional arrangements. In a domain like geopolitics, where there are intelligent players looking for advantage, it is suicidal to turn off your ability to make decisions.