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@yogthos Voting is just another form of aggression placing your will upon others. If you want to volunteer yourself to fight that is between you and your God, but placing your preferences in a way that put others lives and livelihoods at risk, particularly at greater risk than your own, can never be just.

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How is the USA involved in this?

There was a massive draught which killed the nuclear plants in France, causing them to buy power from Germany at extremely high prices and then at the same time, much less natural gas was being delivered from Russia, and the Russian war on Ukraine caused inflation. And all of that after two years of pandemic now means that many low income families can’t afford the rising energy prices.

Obviously, there’s many more factors involved, but I don’t see the USA in this.

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France officially declared that nuclear plants have been stopped for maintenance, not for lack of water in the rivers (I will check this). Regarding the US , remember that immediately after the invasion, they offered zelensky protection suggesting him to fly away from the war zone to refuge himself in the US. This is what news said here at least.

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That Zelensky news story is how I heard it here, too, but I don’t see how that should have convinced us other than maybe showing that other wealthy nations are offering help, so we should be helping, too.

In regards to France, the way I heard it, is that they had to shut down some reactors for maintenance, but then also had to have the remaining reactors operate at low capacity, since they would have otherwise overheated the little water that was still running through the rivers.

I don’t know what would be an authorative news source on this, mine is this German article: https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Krisenstab-eingesetzt-Atomdesaster-in-Frankreich-nimmt-seinen-Lauf-7205304.html
That is one of the most renown tech news agencies in Germany, so I’m willing to believe it.

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US pushed Europe into an an economic war with Russia which led to incredible energy prices seen in Europe today. This is what’s taking German economy which is largely based in manufacturing right now.

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I am not aware of them pushing us towards anything.

☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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Then you haven’t been paying attention. US instigated the sanctions and the whole economic war. Europe was initially reluctant, but went along in the end.

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You mean after Russia attacked Ukraine? Again, I certainly do not feel like we needed instigation from the US for that.

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@Ephera @yogthos it doesn’t really matter if that’s what representative democracies “wanted” sanctions are immoral not for the least but because it adversely effects nearly everyone save perhaps the politicians themselves. Particularly harmful to the working class no matter which nation they reside in on each side.

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Well, personally I’d rather throw the world economy under a bus than sit back and relax as some psychopath has millions of innocent people slaughtered.

This may not be rational by some definition, this may not be behaviour even I would expect from a nation. But I don’t need to fucking be told that the schoolyard bully peer-pressured us into doing this when I’m allowed to vote and would have preferred even stronger sanctions.

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Please explain to me the logic of EU sabotaging its own economy in response to the war in Ukraine. The sanctions have had pretty much no effect on Russia. In Particular, Russia is making record profit from energy sales right now.

The only country that benefits from Eurozone collapsing economically is the US. Much of European industry is already moving to US, there’s a capital flight from Europe to US, and Europe is now dependent on expensive LNG coming from US. The only thing this fiasco achieved was to turn Europe into a vassal state of the US.

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So, you believe we’re not stupid enough to crash our economy on our own, but are stupid enough to let the US convince us?

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I believe that without pressure from US, Europe would’ve made better choices.

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@yogthos @varjolintu Europe doesn’t make choices, only individuals make choices.

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@fu

Wow.
Pretty heavy ideological discourse there…

Ever heard of alienation ?

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@lienrag is that like a country on some other planet? 😉

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quite obviously false

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Tanking European economy and condemning millions of people to horrific conditions this winter does absolutely nothing to help Ukraine. Russia is making record profits from energy exports today.

The rise in energy prices more than made up for any lost sales to Europe. Also, Russia is still exporting lots of gas to Europe via China, India, and Saudi Arabia. The only difference is that these countries now charge Europe a markup.

Also, Russia has pipelines to China and building more pipelines as we speak.

You have absolutely no clue regarding the subject you’re attempting to debate.

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The help for Ukraine comes in different forms. Seems you didn’t read the sources. Russia may be making some money right now because of the high energy prices, but that is not going to last.

It quite obviously will. China’s industry is growing along with BRI. All the industry that’s moving out of Europe will go to Asia and use Russian gas. Again, this isn’t rocket science and it’s amazing that people don’t get this. The articles you linked are written for gullible people who don’t understand how economy or energy markets work globally.

Also the energy sector is not the only things that is affected by the sanctions. A lot more industries and companies have left the country. What makes things harder to measure, is the lack of valid statistics from Russia itself.

Literally zero evidence for the claim that western industry leaving Russia has any negative impact. All it does is create room domestic industry and companies from friendly countries like China and India. If sanctions failed to produce any effect initially, it’s obvious they will only have less effect going forward.

Ah. The usual personal signature at the end. Please tell me how those stats and sources are invalid, and provide better ones instead of insults.

Hope you now have a better understanding of the errors in your sources.

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☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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What part of Russia is building new pipelines to China are you struggling with?

Ph.D. of energy geopolitics and markets, university professor… all citing their sources. What kind of source do you accept as valid if these are not enough? Please, provide them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

The effects are here already. It’s absurd to think China and India can replace Europe on the amount of exports. Is there any proof for your claims? I have seen only words.

LMAO pretty telling how all the numbers are from May, weird how it fails to mention that inflation has been dropping rapidly in Russia, and prices for necessities have been falling

This is precisely my point regarding sanctions. They create an initial shock and then the economy adjusts. There is no instance I’m aware of where western sanctions led to regime change that I’m aware of. Venezuela, DPRK, and Iran are all small countries managing to cope with western sanctions. It’s absolute idiocy to think Russia would not.

Meanwhile, what really matters is the relative economic shock to Russia and the west. Right now the economy in the west is doing far war than in Russia. The obvious reason being that Russia is secure for food, energy, and manufacturing while the west is not.

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What part of this are you struggling with? Those numbers are small compared to the exports what went to Europe. And it doesn’t say anything about the possible cost of the project, or how the future sanctions might affect it. The previous links had good calculations for these, and I have repeated them a few times.

Proposed pipelines are meant to move similar numbers that were going to Europe. The cost of the project is obviously worth it for both Russia and China given that they’re currently doing this project. Have no idea what western sanctions have to do with any of that. If you think that Russia and China aren’t capable of building pipelines on their own you’re delusional.

Yes, this is what you are doing. Of course I rely on experts because I’m not an expert. The same applies to you. I provided sources for my claims, you did not. It’s that simple.

Literally the opposite of what I’m doing. I’ve explained to you the actual mechanics behind the situation.

If you think this is correct, how do you think the economy adjusts to the empiness that was left when all western companies disappeared, brain drain is happening etc.?

Zero evidence to support your assertions about any brain drain happening. Meanwhile, Russia will obviously be in a better place with domestic industry that circulates back into its own economy.

The whole situation takes some time before the actual effects are shown.

Weirdly it’s not taking time for the effects to show in Europe. Wonder what things will look like by spring.

As I said before, it makes things harder to analyze because many official economic statistics are no longer published. You’ll have to rely on what Russia gives (which might be false data) or estimations.

No evidence to support the assertion that Russia gives false data and estimations.

As you said yourself, the economy adjusts.

Economy adjusts when you have things like food and energy secured. Europe does not, and the adjustment will be to starvation and deindustrialization.

The current situation doesn’t count of couse because we are in the middle of it. The manufacturing has already taken a big hit. Why else is Russia trying to get goods from other countries if they are so self-sufficient?

Please name what essential goods Russia is trying to get from other countries. Also, please name what goods Russia actually has trouble sourcing.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1575772450797019136 Sure, food can be found. What about money? Normal people cannot even afford flying out the country.

The fact that you use this as a source explains a lot about your views on the subject.

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As you can see from the sources, even after the new pipeline is finished, the numbers are nowhere near the ones they exported to Europe. I haven’t seen any other numbers that would speak against this.

As you can see, Russia is making record profits at current levels of exports, and once the pipeline is finished it will be doing more exports. The demand for gas isn’t going away any time soon, and after 6 months, it’s crystal clear that there is no way to replace Russian gas on the global market. I realize the concept of supply and demand is daunting for some people.

And when you put the words that way it almost sounds someone has gained a lot of benefits from the explosions of Nord Stream pipes ;) It’s one way to circle around the sanctions.

I see that you’re once again back to having trouble understanding that Russia can turn off the tap at the source. Russia is not required to sell gas to Europe, they can choose whom they do business with. Russia having cut gas in Nord Stream 1 pipelines clearly demonstrated this concept already. Anybody who thinks that Russia needs to blow up it’s own pipelines assumes that people whom they’re trying to convince are imbeciles.

AFAIK Russia is not self-sufficient.

I asked you to be specific here, but you just keep repeating nonsense that you made up.

Are are comparing different things here.

No, we’re literally comparing the same thing. The west cut trade with Russia and now western economies are tanking due to lack of commodities from Russia, while Russian economy is doing just fine without western trinkets.

Yeah, because Russia doesn’t give any data. We’ll have to rely on other data and estimations.

Russia publishes plenty of data, anybody who knows how to use google can look it up. I’m guessing you’re not in the set of people who understand how google works.

Electronic components for manufacturing (you want to depend on China with this too?), spare parts, chemicals etc…

Yes, Russia is going to depend on China for a lot of these things the same way the rest of the world is. You evidently don’t seem to understand where most of global manufacturing happens.

And the most essential: money.

Oh you mean like the rouble that’s the only currency that continues to strengthen agains the dollar? 😂

All the previous exports must be made to China. Sounds like Russia is going to be dependent on them for a long time. In short, China holds the cards from now on.

No, all previous exports will be made to friendly countries which constitute the majority of world’s population. Go read up on BRICS which Russia is a central member of.

China is a big winner from all this to be sure, and I’m personally very happy about that. I think China is a far better run country than Russia, and I’d much rather see China lead the world than western parasites. Russia is paving the way for that.

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Still, the number of exports doesn’t met the amounts they were exporting to Europe even if the new pipeline is finished. In short: China is not going to replace Europe in the energy front, and that’s crystal clear. I’m not sure how many times this needs to be repeated.

In short, demand for Russian energy exports isn’t going anywhere. You’re also making a baseless claim that Russia will not be making more pipelines to the east in the future. Pakistan already asked Russia for a pipeline just last month for example. With manufacturing moving out of Europe, the demand for energy in Asia will grow proportionally, and that energy has the same source.

Your whole premise is nonsense, yet you keep doubling down on it. It’s absolutely amazing that you can’t understand supply and demand mechanics.

No we are not. You are comparing countries that have energy imports cut off (the effects are pretty fast) to a country that has cut off imports on other areas (effects are more slow). The situation could be only compared if both Europe and Russia would be dependent on same things.

Ah, so you’re finally admitting that Europe is more dependent on Russia than the other way around. And following this basic logic it becomes obvious that the longer the trade war goes the worse off Europe will be economically relative to Russia.

Ok, let’s see what it says… Retail sales fell 8,8% in August, wages fell over 3%, gas cutoff hits about 6,6 billion dollars, 55% of oil exports are lost, metal producers are losing 5,7 billion per year, EU restrictions have tripled the cost of road shipments, 95% of passenger planes are foreign-made planes now without spare parts, with pharmaceuticals about 80% of domestic production relies on imported raw materials. So far I haven’t seen Russia itself releasing this kind of stats. Have you?

Russia releases stats about the economy regularly, which include price increases, wages, and so on.

Meanwhile, you just make stuff up as usual. For example, sanctions on plane spare parts were lifted back in August. So, yeah I don’t see made up stats from Russia.

And what are you going to do with all the roubles when you can’t change them to other currency?

Huh, Russia exchanges roubles for all kinds currencies with yuan and rupees being two key ones. There’s a whole new financial system forming outside of SWIFT right now. The amount of ignorance on display here is just stunning.

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☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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The demand may not be going anywhere but the amount what Russia can export is now limited.

That’s what makes the price go up. Let me try using small words you might be able to understand. Less supply means higher price. If Russia can’t deliver as much gas it was previously, then the price for the available gas surges because there isn’t enough to meet demand. This is why Russia is making more profit while selling less gas right now. Since demand is high, that means Russia will keep building more pipelines east and increase volumes of sales to meet demand.

I haven’t said anything like that either. Both are dependent on each other, of course. Please stop putting words to my mouth.

You literally just admitted that the economy in Europe is collapsing because essential commodities from Russia have been cut off. Meanwhile, nothing essential in Russia is missing. This is why the effect on Europe is so much more profound.

Thanks! Seems I wasn’t aware of that site.

Seems like aren’t aware of great many things.

Of course I meant the dollar and euro here.

It’s pretty hilarious that you think these are the only currencies worth considering, given that all the industry and manufacturing is in Asia. You seems to be under the delusion that 15% of world’s population in the west is still the most important part of the planet. It’s not.

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Sure, but that was the whole idea or the articles: it’s not certain how much is it going to cost in the end, and how long it will take. And how the future sanctions will affect. You repeate the same stuff like a broken record. It will take over a decade to get the volumes to the same level with Europe’s imports.

And I’m going to repeat once again that cost is driven by demand, and there is no reason for demand to drop. The sanctions have had no effect because only western countries are participating. All the sanctions do is increase price of energy in Europe because Europe is now buying Russian gas through third parties.

Russia is missing capability to do trade with Europe and Northern America. I’d call that pretty profound effect.

I would not call that profound effect because there is no evidence to support the idea that this had any profound impact on life in Russia. We see profound impact on life in Europe however. Also, you may not realize this but western companies losing business in a country of 150 million also hurts western companies. Any damage done to Russia by this process is symmetrically reflected on the west.

You think Europe and North America are going to trade with Russia using yuan or rubles? 🤣

No I don’t. I simply don’t think Europe and North America matter to Russia as trade partners in the grand scheme of things. Russia has plenty of trade partners without the west. Meanwhile, the west has not been able to secure alternatives to Russian commodities. Your chauvinism clouds your judgment. 🤣

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But there’s multiple reasons why the supply cannot meet the demands.

Which makes the cost go up! In fact, you’ll be seeing this soon personally when your country is going to be running out of essentials this winter. Perhaps personal experience will help you understand how supply and demand works.

With all the companies left from the country, that will surely have an impact in the future. We just cannot see the outcome yet.

Sure we can, inflation numbers for Europe just came out and it’s double digit inflation all across Eurozone https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14698140/2-30092022-AP-EN.pdf/727d4958-dd57-de9f-9965-99562e1286bf?t=1664464564725

We’re not even in winter yet. Most analysts didn’t expect things to get this bad until at least February. This is also a self reinforcing effect. As people see European economy crash they pull their capital out of Europe, and this causes others to pull their capital out too. Nobody wants to be left holding the bag when the crash happens.

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Nice change of topic when you reach the point you can’t admit being wrong or the numbers I provided were actually accurate.

I’m literally discussing the same topic here. Costs for energy go up when the supply cannot meet demand. Once again, this is why Russia is currently making record profits while selling less gas. I’ve literally linked you pipelines Russia currently building to replace Europe. You just made a baseless assertion that they won’t keep doing more of that going forward.

So about the same level as Russia?

Inflation in Russia has been falling, and it’s now down to 7.5% already.

I’m still kind of baffled why Russia keeps stealing and exporting Ukrainian grain if they are so self-sufficient with food. Could you provide some insight to that?

Nice pivot there to a made up story. But even if we took this story at face value it doesn’t support your point since it says Russia is EXPORTING grain from Ukraine. If they weren’t self sufficient in food then they’d be using it themselves. It’s amazing that this sort of thing needs to be explained.

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And what makes China’s, India’s etc. demands to go up from the current imports?

The manufacturing that’s moving there from Europe right now.

No it’s not. You picked the wrong number. That’s the central bank’s key rate. The inflation in August 2022 was 14,3%.

No, I didn’t pick the wrong number. The inflation was at 15% peak, and has been coming down since.

Then why steal it?

Well going with the narrative of the article it’s to sell it for profit. Did you read the article you linked? 😂

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Yes, but I’m talking about demand or supply that will met the previous Europe’s exports. The calculations show that those numbers are not met even with the new pipelines, even with more supply and demand. Not sure why this is so hard to understand.

Not sure what part of Russia can build as many pipelines as they need you’re struggling with here. Meanwhile, in the short term Russia is making money hand over fist, so not like they’re hurting in the short term either.

Are you mixing this up to the estimates they have released for 2023?

No, I’m not. I’m talking about month by month inflation. Here’s another breakdown for you https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/russia/news/inflation/inflation-comes-in-at-highest-level-since-february-2016-in-october-0

Consumer prices rose 1.11% in October over the previous month, picking up from the 0.60% increase seen in September. October’s uptick marked the highest reading since March 2015 and was chiefly driven by rising prices for goods and food. Meanwhile, services prices were broadly stable at the outset of Q4.

Inflation increased to 8.1% in October, following September’s 7.4%. October’s reading represented the highest inflation rate since February 2016. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 6.1% in October (September: 5.7%). Lastly, core inflation rose to 8.0% in October, from September’s 7.6%.

Consumer prices are staying pretty stable. How does that compare with Europe again?

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I literally said inflation is down to 7.5%:

Inflation in Russia has been falling, and it’s now down to 7.5% already.

I’m sorry I didn’t realize you’re unable to comprehend that inflation being down to 7.5% implies there is change over time in inflation.

And of course, we don’t have to talk about annual rates. We can clearly talk about the change in inflation over past 6 months. Change in Russia has been that inflation is dropping and prices are stable. The change in Europe has been the opposite. These are basic facts of the situation.

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Are inflation and cost of living rate in Europe going up or down right now?

Ji Fu
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@varjolintu @yogthos of course it is going up. The Bank of Europe, like most other central banks in the world, have created more money in the last 2 years than in the entiriy of their extenciense up until 2020.

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Yeah, that’s sort of the elephant in the room. The west has been printing money like no tomorrow each time there has been a risk of a recession. This goes back at least all the way to the Y2K crisis. They’ve been basically externalizing the problem into the future all this time. Then the pandemic hit and the economic war and all of a sudden printing money doesn’t solve the problem anymore and they don’t know what to do.

Meanwhile, Russia’s been shoring up its economy since 2014 and carefully weaning itself away from the west this whole time so it would be able to survive decoupling. I can guarantee that China’s been doing the same, and these will be the rising economies as western financial system spirals out of control next year.

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@yogthos I hope you are wrong

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we’ll see soon enough

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Nobody said Russia doesn’t have problems, what I keep explaining to you is that Russia is much better off relative to Europe. I get that basic facts like food and energy security are really hard for you to wrap your head around.

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LMFAO look at you a certified expert on where money goes in Russian economy. 😂

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How to say you’ve never seen a map in your entire life without saying you’ve never seen a map in your entire life. 😂

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Although EU is so deep in US ass that it’s performing haruspice on US entrails to guess the wishes of its master even without direct orders, but not even such toadies would betray their countries like this without some strong pressure.

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Way to move the goalposts, nobody was mentioning anything about “people’s wishes”.

Also, seems that perspective of huge crisis is starting to get through the thick fog of decades of frenzied imperialist propaganda even in the imperial core, so USA also had to blow up the pipes to make fait accompli in case of european governments caving to the wishes of their people to not fell flat on face in worst crisis in decades, instead of licking the colon of USA just so that US oligarchy might fatten itself even more.

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moist-leninist
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really hoping this is a very elaborate high-effort troll otherwise this level of brainworms could be terminal

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@varjolintu @ksynwa

I wouldn’t say “just”.
And indeed that may be the difference between actual marxists and tankies.

I bet you also think about the globalist post modernist neo Marxist conspiracy everyday.

true true

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@varjolintu @PolandIsAStateOfMind

“listening to the voice of the people”
Good joke !

As if you never even heard about manufacturing consent.

So much anger just because EU doesn’t lick Putin’s butt.

Lmao, post hog

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Which ones are non-corrupted?

did you just call EU countries not corrupted? lol

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those are based on the POV of institutions like the World Bank…

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I think pointing out the fact that lobbying is legal and common should be enough

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Transparency International’s report Money, Power and Politics (2012) showed that in most European countries, the influence of lobbyists is shrouded in secrecy and a major cause for concern.

@varjolintu@lemmy.ml
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Lien Rag
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@varjolintu

Not sure about what you mean by “just the possibility for lobbying doesn’t make any country automatically corrupted” ?
As Graeber puts it, it’s the peculiarity of the manager class’ centrism to consider that renaming bribery “lobbying” and making it legal solves the problem of corruption.

A lot of things have changed in ten years

like hwat

You really are the epitome of bad faith debate bro.

@varjolintu@lemmy.ml
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Please continue digging.

You can replace America with Germany here as well. Not sure what their plan is but they look like they are sticking to it.

☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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Yeah, German leadership willingly decided to do economic seppuku over the past 6 months.

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